We are still the shiniest turd on the international scene. I have a firm understanding of economics, banking and money supply on a national level, but fully admit I lack the international understanding to fully assess.

I struggle to understand why we did not see hyper inflation with qe from 2009-12. My very elementary understanding is that the printing shored up a deflationary environment and we didn't see a massive capex spend leading to demand and even a money multiplier effect. Wall Street sat on its money, in large part because of an anti business administration pushing scare tactics and in large part because the money simply improved balance sheet liquidity. There was inflation, and it was meaningful if you figure we were in a deflationary environment, but it was not hyperinflation. Trump benefited from some pent up demand from a previous admin to stupid to realize they were self sabatoging, like most left wingers.

We are in an inflationary environment now. Funds spent did have a multiplier effect (low income stimulus is spent) and there has been a big demand push (capex pushing even more toward automation). Although we are printing from a massive contraction, and admin is still stepping on its own d**k. I'm calling for 5-10% inflation for the next 2-3 years, but I'm listening to the experts who claim it's only transitory.

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I struggle to understand why we did not see hyper inflation with qe from 2009-12.

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I share your struggle and do not completely understand it either.

Explanations I've read that make some sense, and may not be mutually exclusive, include:

1. The money injected via QE merely replaced the money that evaporated in the subprime crisis.
2. The money injected via QE was used primarily to shore up capital losses at big banks and did not otherwise enter the stream of commerce.
3. The increase in the money supply was offset by increased GNP and greater efficiency via technology.

It's way over my head though.

Well point of reference is treasury bonds are at a year low. If any market is worried about inflation they are the canary in the ol coal mine.

SteveBott said:

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Well point of reference is treasury bonds are at a year low. If any market is worried about inflation they are the canary in the ol coal mine.

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Question: if inflation is persistent above 3-4% for multiple years, and bonds do not increase, isn't that even worse for citizens? Aren't a lot of treasuries owned by foreign governments, some of which are okay with a 1.5% yield as opposed to us?

Inflation, systemic anyway, will push bonds up. They were going up earlier this year but a new surge of Covid has backed them down for concern it will hurt the economy

I probably already shared this but the Dairy Queen in freaking Cuervo, TX was advertising $15 starting wages this summer.

agracer said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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evan_aggie said:

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Starting wages for McDonalds and Chipotle aren't going to return back to less than $15/hr.

Lumber isn't dropping back down to $200.

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Chipotle and McDonald's don't have $15 starting wages. Average? Yes (at corporate stores). Starting? No.

Lumber back down to $200? What decade do you live in? Lumber hasn't been at $200 for a long time. Try $350-$400 as a realistic average. Lows around $250, but saying back down to $200 is just asinine. It's at <$600 now after almost hitting $1700 just 2 months ago.

The sky is not falling.

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The McDonald's down the street from me has a sign out front with $15/hr starting wage and 'benefits'.

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Anecdotal. I'll concede the point if you find me something staying that it is now corporate policy and tat franchisees are bound to it or meeting it as well.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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agracer said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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evan_aggie said:

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Starting wages for McDonalds and Chipotle aren't going to return back to less than $15/hr.

Lumber isn't dropping back down to $200.

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Chipotle and McDonald's don't have $15 starting wages. Average? Yes (at corporate stores). Starting? No.

Lumber back down to $200? What decade do you live in? Lumber hasn't been at $200 for a long time. Try $350-$400 as a realistic average. Lows around $250, but saying back down to $200 is just asinine. It's at <$600 now after almost hitting $1700 just 2 months ago.

The sky is not falling.

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The McDonald's down the street from me has a sign out front with $15/hr starting wage and 'benefits'.

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Anecdotal. I'll concede the point if you find me something staying that it is now corporate policy and tat franchisees are bound to it or meeting it as well.

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You don't decide what is factual, anecdotal or otherwise; with respect to the given conversation. Period.

I've seen most walmarts advertising $15/hr in states where the covid incentives have caused a shortage of labor.

Dos Tasadores De TAMU said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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agracer said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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evan_aggie said:

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Starting wages for McDonalds and Chipotle aren't going to return back to less than $15/hr.

Lumber isn't dropping back down to $200.

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Chipotle and McDonald's don't have $15 starting wages. Average? Yes (at corporate stores). Starting? No.

Lumber back down to $200? What decade do you live in? Lumber hasn't been at $200 for a long time. Try $350-$400 as a realistic average. Lows around $250, but saying back down to $200 is just asinine. It's at <$600 now after almost hitting $1700 just 2 months ago.

The sky is not falling.

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The McDonald's down the street from me has a sign out front with $15/hr starting wage and 'benefits'.

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Anecdotal. I'll concede the point if you find me something staying that it is now corporate policy and tat franchisees are bound to it or meeting it as well.

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You don't decide what is factual, anecdotal or otherwise; with respect to the given conversation. Period.

I've seen most walmarts advertising $15/hr in states where the covid incentives have caused a shortage of labor.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/business/economy/unemployment-benefits-economy-states.html

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The cutoff of federal unemployment benefits in much of the country was meant to bring a flood of workers back to the job market. So far, that flood looks more like a trickle.

A total of 26 states, all but one with Republican governors, have moved to end some or all of the expanded unemployment benefits that have been in place since the pandemic began. The governors, along with many business owners, have argued that the benefits discourage returning to work when many employers are struggling to hire.

Several recent studies, however, have concluded that the extra payments have played only a small role in this year's labor shortages. And they found at most a modest increase in employment in states that abandoned the programs most of them in June even as millions of jobless workers have had to cut spending, potentially hurting local economies.

"The idea was that there were lots of jobs it was just that people weren't looking. That was the narrative," said Arindrajit Dube, a University of Massachusetts economist who was an author of one of the studies. "I don't think that story holds up."

Data released Friday by the Labor Department provided the latest evidence. It showed that the states that cut benefits have experienced job growth similar to and perhaps slightly slower than growth in states that retained the benefits. That was true even in the leisure and hospitality sector, where businesses have been particularly vocal in their complaints about the benefits.

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That doesn't make a lick of sense. If it were true then why have the top ten states for unemployement blue lockdown states?

There has been a lot of commentary that extended unemployment benefits was causing the unemployment rates to rise and that by ending unemployment benefits early, as 25 states did, we would see a bigger decrease in unemployment rates in those states. According to multiple studies/analysis, the states that ended additional benefits early did not see a greater decrease in unemployment compared to the states that kept the benefits going.

I understand what you are saying. I'm saying it doesn't make sense and it seems to contradictory to the larger employment rates by state.

Government put people on their ass and they won't get off until they are absolutely certain Biden won't be sending them another check. Not only that, but I'd be curious to see how much the disability rolls have grown over the last 2 years. Under Obama, disability expanded at a historic rate and removed tons of people from the work force while cementing higher government bennies.

mwp02ag said:

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Many of them still ain't paying rent either.

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Hasn't that program ended? OR are those people just saying **** it?

mwp02ag said:

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Many of them still ain't paying rent either.

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I think this has a lot to do with it. There are still millions of federal dollars out there to assist with paying rent and utilities and eligible households can receive up to 18 months of assistance.

Seattle just extended the rent moratorium until 1/2022. Thread about it on F16.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/seattle-eviction-moratorium-extended-january-2022/281-65712acd-9f00-40c7-b9f2-73d241e0d74f

Scimitar said:

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My point is that she has no idea if it's transitory. She's hedging.

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You do realize that analysis isn't absolute, right? Even disregarding analysis is taking a stance.

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First it was settling sometime in summer 21. Then it was winter. Now it is late 22 because of unforeseen issues. You can say whatever you want, but when the Money supply increases sharply in a year putting money in peoples pockets that they can't spend on consumables until...boom.

And hey...it's fine. We were running under the 2% target for some years. So if it is 5-6% for 2 years...or more (we have no idea - the Fed) it sort of offsets it all.

LMCane said:

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Breaking:

US Consumer prices soared 6.2% Year over Year in October,

far higher than the +5.9% YoY expected and accelerating from September's 5.4% YoY;

this is the highest print since June 1982.

www.zerohedge.com

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The fed and crooked government have dug themselves a big hole. People are going to start boiling over with the prices they are paying for just about everything. People are going to go to boil over if they raise interest rates and tank the stock market. They are toast either way. This is going to be a real show. Time to kick back with some beer and peanuts and watch this fiasco play out.

LMCane said:

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Breaking:

US Consumer prices soared 6.2% Year over Year in October,

far higher than the +5.9% YoY expected and accelerating from September's 5.4% YoY;

this is the highest print since June 1982.

www.zerohedge.com

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I think the producer price index is a better measure of inflation as it is broader in scope. I think it was closer to 8.6% yoy.