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The reason we should not be concerned about inflation

89,260 Views | 493 Replies | Last: 25 days ago by Redstone
mwp02ag
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In reply to Redstone • 9:26a, 6/10/22
AG
To be fair, based on history of fiat, if you didn't know this was going to happen after dropping the GS in 71 you're about to learn it the hard way.

Hopefully this is a peaceful collapse but it sure isn't looking that way.
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YouBet
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 9:33a, 6/10/22
AG
Red Pear Realty said:
There has been a flight to safety from various global currencies to USD over the last year or so. Some of the weakest currencies are already collapsing. So it's not so much that gold isn't meeting inflation, it's that USD is improving vs gold. I do believe gold will have its day soon.


The trend lines say you may want to have it physically in your hands when that day comes. Along with guns, ammo, whiskey, cigarettes, garden, and water supply if you really want a fully diversified portfolio.
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Redstone
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10:24a, 6/10/22
AG

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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to YouBet • 12:16p, 6/10/22
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Couldn't agree more. Are you a member of the TexAgs PM discord channel? If not, you should join!

https://discord.gg/yY8kTxEK
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LMCane
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12:53p, 6/10/22
The case that a recession is looming over the U.S. got stronger Friday, as blistering inflation and historic lows in consumer sentiment painted an increasingly dark economic picture.

As if the consumer price index increase of 8.6% wasn't bad enough news, that release was followed later in the morning by the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.

That widely-followed gauge of optimism registered a paltry 50.2, the lowest in survey data going back to 1978.

That's lower than the depths of the Covid outbreak, lower than the financial crisis, lower even than the last inflation peak back in 1981.
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Carlo4
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In reply to LMCane • 6:00p, 6/10/22
AG
LMCane said:
The case that a recession is looming over the U.S. got stronger Friday, as blistering inflation and historic lows in consumer sentiment painted an increasingly dark economic picture.

As if the consumer price index increase of 8.6% wasn't bad enough news, that release was followed later in the morning by the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.

That widely-followed gauge of optimism registered a paltry 50.2, the lowest in survey data going back to 1978.

That's lower than the depths of the Covid outbreak, lower than the financial crisis, lower even than the last inflation peak back in 1981.


Thank goodness Yellen is saying there is zero chance of a recession. It's like I'm playing cards with my brothers kids!

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Red Pear Realty
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7:14p, 6/10/22
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No they know exactly what they are doing. They aren't stupid.
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Redstone
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5:10p, 6/13/22
AG
A question, then a meme: does anyone really believe CPI is not in the double digits?



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Redstone
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6:59p, 6/13/22
AG
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to Redstone • 7:44p, 6/13/22
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This is an incredible thread that everyone should read and prepare for what's to come.

If you don't use Twitter, here is a link where you can read in paragraph form:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1535269226709241861.html
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Redstone
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8:01a, 7/13/22
AG
New numbers out today

9.1 officially reported means double digit increases - ON TOP OF THE MASSIVE INCREASES ALREADY RECORDED.
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LMCane
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8:04a, 7/13/22
With The White House having desperately tried to front-run this morning's inflation print, analysts were expecting a jump higher led by food and energy costs.

CPI soared 9.1% year over year (vs 8.8% expected and 8.6% inflation rate in May)...

The 1.3% month over month rise is the hottest since 2005 and the 9.1% year over year is the hottest since 1981.

Services costs are soaring at their fastest since 1991


Source: Bloomberg
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Redstone
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8:05a, 7/13/22
AG
Let us consider. These past three months.

40 billion plus to the most corrupt country in Europe, Ukraine (Russia is number 2).

Then, an additional 8 billion plus … for what? To pay Ukrainian government salaries. Yes really, look it up.

PRINT. PRINT!!! BRRRRR GOES THE MACHINES

We should just keep on going, right?

Who cares that you can't afford food?
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LMCane
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In reply to Redstone • 8:08a, 7/13/22
Redstone said:
Let us consider. These past three months.

40 billion plus to the most corrupt country in Europe, Ukraine (Russia is number 2).

Then, an additional 8 billion plus … for what? To pay Ukrainian government salaries. Yes really, look it up.

PRINT. PRINT!!! BRRRRR GOES THE MACHINES

We should just keep on going, right?

Who cares that you can't afford food?

but I just heard a .GOV radio ad discussing the wonders of a new AIDS drug discussed by a black male ghey spokesman who tells us how fabulous he is.

did I mention that is a .GOV paid for by your tax dollars public service announcement?

broadcast on radio, when 99% of the American public does NOT have AIDS?!?!
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Redstone
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8:19a, 7/13/22
AG
Can an economic measure be temporary if it registers increases in literally every analysis - including those proven to undercount the increases?
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Redstone
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8:21a, 7/13/22
AG
Does anyone here wish to contest that ALL government measurements of inflation significantly undercount the reality since 2020?

Please do. I actually have some time today.
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Redstone
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8:25a, 7/13/22
AG
These 2 threads - located on Business, and Poltiics - now belong to me, and to all posters who called out this total nonsense immediately after initial creation.

Why note this?
BECAUSE MASSIVE AND SUSTAINED INFLATION WAS EXTREMELY PREDICTABLE LITERALLY YEARS AGO
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YouBet
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In reply to Redstone • 8:39a, 7/13/22
AG
Redstone said:
These 2 threads - located on Business, and Poltiics - now belong to me, and to all posters who called out this total nonsense immediately after initial creation.

Why note this?
BECAUSE MASSIVE AND SUSTAINED INFLATION WAS EXTREMELY PREDICTABLE LITERALLY YEARS AGO


I'm Redstone!!!!!
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evan_aggie
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9:00a, 7/13/22
AG
CPI Report Live Updates: U.S. Inflation Reached 9.1% in June
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evan_aggie
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9:01a, 7/13/22
AG
What's crazy is that the 80s adjusted inflation for current formula would put it actually less than 9.1%
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Redstone
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9:20a, 7/13/22
AG
Posters and lurkers:
Although this point is extremely obvious, it should now be indisputable that massive money printing sprees are directly correlated with inflation.

A word especially to undergraduates at Mays reading my words:
THIS IS REAL. IT IS ECONOMIC REALITY.
Therefore, if you professor says otherwise?
WRONG.
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Wolfe
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11:56a, 7/13/22
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mwp02ag
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1:47p, 7/13/22
AG
So my base case, which I've formed listening to all the awesome guests on George Gammons YouTube, is for the FED to continue to crush demand to fight inflation by continued rate hikes and QT this year but that some in next 18 months we see the pivot back to stimulus.

Once that happens, we will see the largest helicopter money package we've seen yet which will only exasperate inflation. Before that though we're going through a deep and painful recession and the strengthening dollar, thanks to FF hikes, is going to crush any other country with dollar debt and spreading the contagion worldwide and increasing the probability that recession turns to the Greater Depression.

That's about where we're at right?
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Wolfe
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In reply to SteveBott • 4:25p, 7/13/22
The FED didn't print 40% of supply in 08. Debt to GDP in 08 at it's peak was like 80%. That figure is closer to 130% today.

A lot of things are different from 2008.
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evan_aggie
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In reply to SteveBott • 4:31p, 7/13/22
AG
SteveBott said:
Well if you read my links so does the federal reserve governors and it is their job to know.

This one was pretty good Steve. Trust in the fed... They know.
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Ag92NGranbury
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 5:47p, 7/13/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Evan, Scimi is a pro trader.

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RockOn
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In reply to Ag92NGranbury • 10:36p, 7/13/22
Ag92NGranbury said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Evan, Scimi is a pro trader.
Not just a pro trader. Dude was the head of agricultural commodity research for a global investment bank.


Some posters might be well served to reflect and dwell on their replies to him in this thread.
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Red Pear Realty
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7:13a, 7/14/22
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AG
I posted this in its own thread so folks that don't just read this thread can read it, but I believe it's time to pay the piper. We need a big rate hike immediately.

Not 75 bps, not 100. We need 500. The Fed will admit to 9.1%, but we all know it's much higher. They have no control over inflation. There will be no soft landing.

Our options are to get ahead of this thing now and have a terrible correction, or continue raising rates a few basis points and chase inflation for a few years and have a potentially country-ending type of event happen at some point down the road.

I personally stand to make a lot more money with low interest rates, but this is the right thing to do for our country and our future, and it needs to be done sooner rather than later. The longer we wait, the worse it will be. To use Dr. Mark Dotzour's analogy, our country has had its face in the pile of cocaine for way too long. Time to go to rehab.
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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7:33a, 7/14/22
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AG
June's PPI was 1.1% vs the 0.8%

YoY is 11.3%

Who the heck is pushing out all these estimates that are just way off?
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ac04
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8:20a, 7/14/22
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YouBet
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In reply to evan_aggie • 8:57a, 7/14/22
AG
evan_aggie said:
What's crazy is that the 80s adjusted inflation for current formula would put it actually less than 9.1%
Do what? Using the 80s formula, we are almost double this number.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong.
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LMCane
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9:09a, 7/14/22
Wholesale prices shoot up near-record 11.3% in June on surge in energy costs
PUBLISHED THU, JUL 14 20228:51 AM EDTUPDATED 12 MIN AGO

  • The producer price index rose 11.3% from a year ago in June, near the record 11.6% posted in March.
  • Excluding food, energy and trade, core PPI was up 6.4%. The monthly gain of 0.3% was below expectations.
  • Jobless claims jumped to 244,000 last week, the highest level since November 2021.
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AggieMainland
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10:47a, 7/14/22
As someone who was in school in 2008, this is a great time to be a business student in undergrad. It probably doesn't seem like it due to significant decrease in job prospects, but the lessons learned will be invaluable. You don't learn anything during a 12 year bull market where everything goes up and never down. Its dangerous long term. Current students will be in good shape in the long run.
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Redstone
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2:14p, 7/14/22
AG
Yesterday:
CPI scare
CPI government lies....as detailed here.

TODAY??
Producer Prices

Now, what is happening?

This is the 27th straight month of MoM increases in producer prices.

Yes, 27.

The pipeline of price increases....BY LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE INDICATOR

GIGANTIC

Who could have predicated this 2 years ago?

Oh, literally anyone with a single shred of economic sense?

Huh.
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Ag92NGranbury
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In reply to RockOn • 9:53p, 7/14/22
AG
RockOn said:
Ag92NGranbury said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Evan, Scimi is a pro trader.
Not just a pro trader. Dude was the head of agricultural commodity research for a global investment bank.


Some posters might be well served to reflect and dwell on their replies to him in this thread.
Which shows that even the most decorated experts get it wrong...

Just like all the economists that claimed 'transitory'....

No disrespect to Scimi, but sometimes that invisible hand is truly invisible to many pro's as well.
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