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The reason we should not be concerned about inflation

89,244 Views | 493 Replies | Last: 25 days ago by Redstone
evan_aggie
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2:14p, 10/13/22
AG
6.6% core has room to grow too.

If we just factored in shelter today as-is it would easily be above 7%, but perhaps there will be some swapping of components where Shelter is +0.40% and others are -0.40% in the next 2-3 months.

I doubt it.
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LMCane
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2:39p, 10/13/22
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Redstone
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2:45p, 10/13/22
AG
Inflation Reduction Act

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NoahAg
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3:14p, 10/13/22
Someone wanna call in a welfare check on OP?
Let's go, Brandon!
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htxag09
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In reply to evan_aggie • 10:05p, 10/13/22
AG
evan_aggie said:



Has he been back on this thread in the last year to follow up on his predictions?
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AgGrad99
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8:22a, 10/14/22
AG
I've seen Steve post here and there recently. We all have incorrect predictions from time to time. He's a good dude.

Hope his business is fairing ok. Im sure he's been directly impacted. I saw that Austin has the biggest drop in real estate in the country because homes aren't selling. I hate downturns like this. They're never fun.
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Carlo4
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9:58a, 10/14/22
AG
Not sure where to post this, but I'm pretty livid. This, to me, shows the real cost of inflation.

Just got my insurance renewals with safeco. They have treated me well over the years (or at least I've felt that way). I now have a 27% increase in auto insurance on two cars ($2200 to $2800) and a 44% increase on home insurance ($1475 to $2200) in Tarrant County. Umbrella policy for $1 million at $250 a year.

Definitely going to shop around this fall, but I'm guessing everyone is experiencing this.

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AgGrad99
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In reply to Carlo4 • 10:09a, 10/14/22
AG
That sucks, but you might find it's the same with everyone you shop around with.
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evan_aggie
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In reply to AgGrad99 • 10:11a, 10/14/22
AG
AgGrad99 said:
I've seen Steve post here and there. We all have incorrect predictions from time to time. He's a good dude.

Hope his business is fairing ok. Im sure he's been directly impacted. I saw that Austin has the biggest drop in real estate in the country because homes aren't selling. I hate downturns like this. They're never fun.
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Red Pear Realty
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10:15a, 10/14/22
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I'm working a deal with Steve right now and have worked several with him over the years. He is a good guy and I'm guessing one of the longest running posters on TexAgs. I can't speak for anyone else, but at this moment, I'm busier than I was in June or July.
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Robert L. Peters
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12:12p, 10/14/22
It's time for a bump of the stupidest OP in TA history.
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Red Pear Realty
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10:41p, 10/14/22
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Inflation and interest rates are going to continue to increase until we start hemorrhaging jobs, or until the US govt can no longer service its debt (mathematically this has to be something like 3.5 to 4.0 years from today). If the former, it will be painful. If the latter, it will be REALLY painful. I wonder why all those billionaires have been buying farm land?
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Beckdiesel03
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In reply to Carlo4 • 8:04a, 10/15/22
AG
I had to shop Leire this year after probably 8 years with them. I was able to save about $700 a year between cars homes boat and umbrella. I wanted to be loyal but I can't afford to pay more than I have to. So you might want to shop around. There was a thread on this I think on the real estate board with a lot of people in the same situation.
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MRB10
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In reply to Beckdiesel03 • 12:50p, 10/15/22
AG
Which carrier? My assumption is Branch and I'm curious to know if it's correct.
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Beckdiesel03
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2:55p, 10/15/22
AG
No we went through Goosehead and got progressive for some and another company for the other 2 policies but I would have to go back and look. But it wasn't branch.
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MRB10
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1:15p, 10/16/22
AG
Ok thanks.
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planoaggie123
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7:02p, 10/16/22
AG
Chiming in to agree on not being loyal and shopping around. I was proposed massive increases on home and auto and easily found rates cheaper than what I paid last year through a broker. Just takes times but will likely eventually at least find something a bit cheaper.
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Red Pear Realty
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6:58p, 10/17/22
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https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606
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MRB10
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 7:16a, 10/18/22
AG
That might deserve it's own thread. I'd be interested to get takes on how portfolios could be redesigned if all of that comes to pass.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Buck Compton • 1:06p, 10/18/22
AG
Hey Buck!

Looks like we do business in the same industry. I'm seeing similar to higher numbers than you are. At least on the wholesale side of things.

I tried sending you a PM to connect, but you don't have stars. I'd love to make an introduction learn who you are with.

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K_P
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 2:24p, 10/24/22
AG
Red Pear Realty said:
I wonder why all those billionaires have been buying farm land?

Doesn't look like prices there have softened the way the rest of the RE market has either
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Redstone
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8:20a, 11/10/22
AG
Ready for Thanksgiving?
Family, friends, massive price spikes?

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/10/1135142988/economy-inflation-cpi-october-thanksgiving-prices-food-debt-creditcards
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 7:02a, 11/17/22
AG
Red Pear Realty said:
https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606


This is exactly what's going to happen. The collapse of Chinese manufacturing is going to force production to shift to other parts of the world. I've told clients for awhile now that we're going to see a consumer recession and an explosion in commercial construction. China had become #1 or #2 globally in manufacturing for the simple fact that they were a bottomless pit of cheap labor but those days are long gone and will not return in our lifetimes. No one nation can absorb that activity so the final outcome will depend on the product and how skilled labor intensive it is. Mexico and Central/South America will benefit greatly from the transition.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
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waitwhat?
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7:59a, 12/31/22
Wrong board to bump
" 'People that read with pictures think that it's simply about a mask' - Dana Loesch" - Ban Cow Gas

"Truth is treason in the empire of lies." - Dr. Ron Paul

Big Tech IS the empire of lies

TEXIT
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Redstone
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10:30a, 12/31/22
AG
December 1998. The most recent spring was the last time it was "easy" to gain entrance to the Mays Business School as an 18 year old.

I transferred out, and am still Facebook friends with the advisor who filled out the form.

I need a Mays graduate to explain to me economics…..like the OP. What is going on? He was so confident. Why have I been abandoned?
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john2002ag
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In reply to Redstone • 9:09a, 1/1/23
I hate to dog pile but just do a search of the OP's posting history on the politics board. He is ignorant and hopefully for his sake he is simply too young to know any better.
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Redstone
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8:27a, 1/12/23
AG
Today

6.5% CPI (lol, anyone actually believe this) as food and other prices still soar, and after big Fed hikes.

And yet, the spin is "good news." This is what counts as that now, evidently.
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Redstone
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12:26p, 1/19/23
AG
So, it's still quite bad -

Let's move those goalposts!!

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm
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Redstone
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9:29p, 2/18/23
AG
The Fed overdid its expansionary monetary policy during the pandemic, the idea being loose money would promote employment. How did that work out?

But, but....low unemployment! This is a time of historically low labor-force-participation rate. So, we have that, AND inflation remains unacceptably high (anyone believe the official calculations? If so - LOL)

Fed remains ambiguous about its strategy to get inflation back to 2 percent and keep it there. That explains, at least a bit, why there is so little sign that it is going back to 2 percent, doesn't it?

Exactly like I was saying back in fall of 2019, as this depressing time was just beginning.
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evan_aggie
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In reply to agracer • 5:26a, 2/19/23
AG
agracer said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
evan_aggie said:
Starting wages for McDonalds and Chipotle aren't going to return back to less than $15/hr.

Lumber isn't dropping back down to $200.


Chipotle and McDonald's don't have $15 starting wages. Average? Yes (at corporate stores). Starting? No.

Lumber back down to $200? What decade do you live in? Lumber hasn't been at $200 for a long time. Try $350-$400 as a realistic average. Lows around $250, but saying back down to $200 is just asinine. It's at <$600 now after almost hitting $1700 just 2 months ago.

The sky is not falling.
The McDonald's down the street from me has a sign out front with $15/hr starting wage and 'benefits'.
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evan_aggie
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5:30a, 2/19/23
AG
To be fair to OP, it's not like he was the only one pumping team-transitory...though he did argue for a perpetual motion machine. Pretty sure all politicians believe the same.

There were a handful of "pros" calling their shot even in the face of rising rent, wages, etc.
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evan_aggie
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12:06p, 2/24/23
AG
OP

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Redstone
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12:13p, 2/24/23
AG
Fed can't tame inflation without 'significantly' more hikes that will cause a recession

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/the-fed-cant-tame-inflation-without-more-hikes-paper-says.html
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BenTheGoodAg
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In reply to Decay • 12:17p, 2/24/23
AG
Decay said:
We told him he was dying, showed him the grave, told him how to stop digging it, and he went ahead and buried himself anyway.

The least one can do is dance on it
I still laugh about this post when I see this thread pop up.
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evan_aggie
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12:20p, 2/24/23
AG
A friend told me Op has applied to Fed intern program to be a future analyst.
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