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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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GeorgiAg said:

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

kyle field 94 said:

What are we all missing here with Sava?
I don't know you're level of DD or keeping up with SAVA, Hard for me to say what you/we are missing. Here's some info for you. It's 47 to 51 days before Phase3 Rethink is completed. Phase3 Refocus doesn't stop until May 2025 I believe. 89% of patients coming off P3 trials are electing to continue in the study - an Open Label Extension. It got to a point where SAVA couldn't afford to continue the extention program financially and liabiltywise. Two DSDM site reviews and 100% saftey confirmed. Over 2 million doses given and no serious side effect reported. Last week FDA provided a 3 year extension to patients rolling off P3 trials (that's not an FDA approval, but use some latitude in your thinking, 89% patients continuing and FDA providing a compassionate care extension of 3 years or until the drug is approved) they get simulfilam. Remi Barbier is out as CEO...wasnt a bad move. Dr Burns is on a consulting agreement with Cassava for 1 year and has a 1 year option...that sign should tell you a buyout is in the making and the Buyer will need her help. They keep Dr. Burns on until a deal is done, IN MY OPINION. This BS of DOJ charging Dr. Wang is bogus...he plead "not gulity" this morning. Articles right now on Schwab and Fidelity showing he plead "guilty" - the articles have been manipulated. With RB, Dr. LB and Dr. Wang now out of the company, the Shorts & Fudsters are having difficulty coming up with BS stories to try and pressure the stock price. The Float is 48.7 million, Short is 16.3 million, 3 million borrowed, so 19.3 million short, excluding phantom shares and total naked selling. I think this company has been short 3X to 5X. Sandford Robertson, Board Member, died over the weekend, he's a Long. NO ONE internally has sold a single freakin' share! NO ONE. IMO, this drug will become a medical breakthrough. Shorts and Fudsters can talk it down all they want, but they can't stop the Phase 3 trials. Phase 3 Data should blow the doors off medical thinking. I think the company gets bought out before P3 Rethink data hits the streets. There is a lot at risk here, some Big Pharma is going to buy this company and be the king, IMO. The rest will take back seat. Think of all the companies, fund raising oufits, high paying jobs, etc. that go away IF this drug works. There's a lot of people that do not want to see this drug succeed. Lot's of people, evil people, worst that humanity has to offer and I know who some are but not all. I have kept in contact with the alzheimers association for the past 3 years. Their stance is remarkably non-existent. I haven't even touched on the competitve alzheimers drugs and what has happened to them in the last 6 months. Too much info and I'm building a wall of words now. 3 million shares were shorted at $3, 8 million shares were shorted at $9 and the rest scattered to $20 per share. The Shorts have not covered. THERE ARE NO SHARES TO BUY AT THE AMOUNT THEY NEED. Even at the last dip, Shorts did not cover. This is not investing advice. Do your own DD. I'm giving you high points, because I don't see any negative points outside the biggest one - FDA REJECTION. As ProgN noted before, it's a hero or zero. You probably know which of those two I am thinking it is. If you own shares, do not lend them. Brokerage houses are paying up to 218%. If you lend them, good luck! When this stock really takes off, go luck if the brokerage house can find your shares. They're only responsible for refunding the share price on the day you lent them.....taking candy from a baby. I have no love for the Short Sellers involved in this stock. They have purposely kept this drug off the market by stalling/slowing the Cassava's progress, petitioned the FDA to stop Phase 3 trials before they started, and then created a company fronted by a guy, Dr. David Bredt, that said Cassava was fake science but he quotes their science in his drug for the company he is starting (RAPP). This is so messed up. I hope wrongful death lawsuits occur against these Short Sellers. The Short Sellers, IMO, are responsible for at least 1 million deaths of Alzheimers patients and stopped the rest of AD afflicted people from a better quality of life by stalling this drug. Marc Cohodes is involved in this too in a bad way. Two years ago I had a Short Seller on another site threaten my life over SAVA. I got the screen shots. I hope they make a movie about this.
Holy wall of text, Batman! Here's a ChatGPT summary:

Here's a summary of the information:
  • Phase 3 Trials: The completion of Phase 3 Rethink is about 47 to 51 days away. Phase 3 Refocus is expected to continue until May 2025. The majority (89%) of patients exiting Phase 3 trials are choosing to continue in the study through an Open Label Extension.
  • Financial and Safety Issues: Cassava Sciences (SAVA) faced financial and liability challenges in continuing the extension program. However, safety reviews confirm that over 2 million doses have been administered with no serious side effects reported.
  • FDA and Management Changes: The FDA has granted a 3-year extension for compassionate care to patients transitioning off Phase 3 trials. Remi Barbier is out as CEO, and Dr. Burns is on a consulting agreement with Cassava, which some interpret as a sign of a potential buyout. Dr. Wang, another key figure, has pleaded "not guilty" to charges, countering misleading reports that he pled "guilty."
  • Stock and Short Selling: Short selling activity is significant, with 48.7 million shares outstanding, 16.3 million short, and 3 million borrowed shares. There is a belief that the company might be the target of a buyout before Phase 3 Rethink data is released.
  • Market Dynamics: There are concerns that shorts and detractors are manipulating the stock and potentially hindering progress. No internal shares have been sold, and there are high stakes involved if the drug succeeds.
  • Legal and Ethical Issues: There are accusations that short sellers have intentionally obstructed the drug's progress, potentially causing significant harm to Alzheimer's patients. This situation has led to calls for potential legal actions against these short sellers.
The writer emphasizes optimism about the drug's potential while urging caution and independent research.
I love you man! ( no homo ) .... Glad you mentioned ChatGPT.

AI was used on the numbers SAVA has released from their studies, so far. Originally, a poster on another site who is a clinical math wiz, kept saying the math showed less than a .01 chance of failure.....meaning statistical significance would be achieved. He went on for months changing inputs on the SAVA data based on previous studies/trials that were published and could not get the SAVA numbers to fail.

A few months later, someone plugged his data into ChatGPT and sure enough, it gave a result that statistical significance would be achieved and the drug approved. I decided to perform the test myself,...yep, got the same result. The Phase 3 trials arent over, but I think this drug is going to be approved.
GeorgiAg
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AG
I really appreciate your post and info. I will def be checking that out!!!!
hedge
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Por que no los dos
Brewmaster
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

Now the fun part.

Are we in 2020, 2021, and 2024, where US trading forces the night monkeys to fade only to be bought back the next day? Or are the night monkeys leading like 2022 and 2023?
intraday looked like ****e. I took profits on my morning buys. Happy to be wrong, but a lot of strange stuff going on in the world.
I also read about the Reverse Carry Trade on twitter - still don't 100% understand it, but essentially people borrowing Yen at low interest, then trading elsewhere. As Yen vs other currency gap gets smaller, this becomes much less profitable.
docaggie
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AG
And if it's approved?
Hold onto your butts.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Chef Elko
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AG
I've been wrecked many times on SAVA over the years. Maybe I buy back in?
ProgN
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GeorgiAg said:

I really appreciate your post and info. I will def be checking that out!!!!
Disclaimer: I don't have any inside information regarding SAVA and neither does Farmer, but he does hold a considerable long position. Yes, he and I are friends and he is very thorough with his investments.

It has been interesting the incredible share price appreciation that SAVA has undergone the past few days in the face of a very shaky market. Last I read, that they will be releasing 3rd phase human trials results shortly and if Simuflam's efficacy is verifiable, then they will apply for expedited FDA approval.

I also know that $LLY are crushing all other pharma bigs and their pipeline is deep. $MRK & $PFE are at risk of falling further behind $LLY because their drug pipeline sucks. I think there is a good chance that SAVA will be bought out by one of the Bigs for Simuflam and the patent. Don't buy it on my speculation, because this is just my educated guess.
Brewmaster
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AG
Heineken-Ashi
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Decent explanation. But this this is more than just the carry trade blowing up.. because bonds aren't going down. They're going up. In a big way.

That's why I believe this has way more to do with rotation. No, not large cap to small cap. This is global rotation into US bonds as a safe haven. Because global rates are likely going to be lowered and global recession is near, if not here already.

The carry trade blowup is just the catalyst that set everything on fire. And it did so because the entire world is way over it skis with leverage in EVERYTHING.

What comes next is TBD. But I don't see this just reversing back to the way things were. It feels like the type of event that catalyzes into a new paradigm. I'd be prepared for short term holds and taking profits when you have them. And I'll personally be on the lookout for when this rotation might end. Because a combo of re-inflation / the world demanding higher return for US treasuries is likely. Especially if Japan starts dumping there's. We have a ton of new ones to throw into the market. My guess is sometime next year.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brewmaster
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AG
thanks for the explanation amigo. I agree completely... this made me laugh though:

El_duderino
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Nikkei circuit breaker triggered to the upside
aggies4life
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AG
What trading platform had no issues today?

Sick of Schwab having these issues!
El_duderino
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Sounded like tradovate and ibkr
Heineken-Ashi
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aggies4life said:

What trading platform had no issues today?

Sick of Schwab having these issues!
IBKR, and they have the best fee structure. But I couldn't get used to their trading platform other than the charts being Tradingview based. TOS is engrained in me.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brian Earl Spilner
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hedge
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GreasenUSA
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Heineken-Ashi said:

aggies4life said:

What trading platform had no issues today?

Sick of Schwab having these issues!
IBKR, and they have the best fee structure. But I couldn't get used to their trading platform other than the charts being Tradingview based. TOS is engrained in me.
I'm not sure about no issues for IBKR. OA1 is threatening to file a class action lawsuit against them for what he had to deal with this morning.

Etrade (surprisingly) worked perfectly fine for me today.
Brian Earl Spilner
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aggies4life said:

What trading platform had no issues today?

Sick of Schwab having these issues!


Tos
tlepoC
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Tos had issues. Mobile longer than desktop but both wouldn't let users log in.
El_duderino
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TOS definitely had issues. I wasn't able to log in until after 10am once I was kicked off at the open.

Vanguard would let me log in to see my balances, but couldn't make any transactions

Brewmaster
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aggies4life said:

What trading platform had no issues today?

Sick of Schwab having these issues!
Fidelity is the only one I know of.

even IBKR had issues, look at OA's twitter, he's ready to lawyer up!

I bleed maroon
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Brewmaster said:

aggies4life said:

What trading platform had no issues today?

Sick of Schwab having these issues!
Fidelity is the only one I know of.

even IBKR had issues, look at OA's twitter, he's ready to lawyer up!


Fidelity was down for the better part of an hour this morning. I had no issues with Schwab or TOS this morning.
tlh3842
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El_duderino said:

TOS definitely had issues. I wasn't able to log in until after 10am once I was kicked off at the open.




Same. While OA may have had issues with orders not going through, for any level of trader not being able to login in for 1.5hr at the start of a day like today us unacceptable. F Schwab
Heineken-Ashi
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GreasenUSA said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

aggies4life said:

What trading platform had no issues today?

Sick of Schwab having these issues!
IBKR, and they have the best fee structure. But I couldn't get used to their trading platform other than the charts being Tradingview based. TOS is engrained in me.
I'm not sure about no issues for IBKR. OA1 is threatening to file a class action lawsuit against them for what he had to deal with this morning.

Etrade (surprisingly) worked perfectly fine for me today.
Oh damn. Everyone I know with them had no issues.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
spud1910
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

GreasenUSA said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

aggies4life said:

What trading platform had no issues today?

Sick of Schwab having these issues!
IBKR, and they have the best fee structure. But I couldn't get used to their trading platform other than the charts being Tradingview based. TOS is engrained in me.
I'm not sure about no issues for IBKR. OA1 is threatening to file a class action lawsuit against them for what he had to deal with this morning.

Etrade (surprisingly) worked perfectly fine for me today.
Oh damn. Everyone I know with them had no issues.
I had no issues with IBKR today, but I was pretty much sitting on the sidelines.
Heineken-Ashi
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Here's something to watch for. So far, we are holding the 2007 fractal extremely closely. Remember, this is the same year, and roughly the same time of year, that bond yield started tanking in 2007 following a year of FED pause above 5% and jawboning about "need more data to feel sure we've beaten inflation". The JPY carry trade also started to unwind then.

SPX bottomed on Aug 4, the first Monday of the month, down 8% from its recent high. It then rebounded strongly for 2 days, retracing the drop by nearly 61.8%, topping on Wednesday Aug 6. It then sold back off through Thursday Aug 15th, slightly more than a 100% extension of the initial drop from the Wednesday top. Following that bottom, the market mostly went up for 56 days to a new high with the real acceleration starting September 10th and ending October 11th. What came next was.. well.. you know.. the thing.



Similarly, we bottomed from a recent high on the first Monday of August after bond yields started to sell off and the blow up of the JPY carry trade. A 61.8% retrace takes us to 5452 on Wednesday. A 100% extension move of the initial drop from that point would put the SPX around the low 4900's next Thursday. 56 days from that is October 12th and a similar target would be SPX 5750.



Based on the 2007 crash beginning, (warning - projection based on a single fractal in time and likely not to play out the exact same way, if it all) the election this year would fall with SPX back down to pretty much where are today give or take some. There would be a low in late November probably just north of SPX 5000, a rebound back to the area we are in today by mid December, and then a Christmas selloff lasting through January followed by the first major bottom in March in the 4480 range.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
El_duderino
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The SPX rose 3% on 9/18/07 when they cut rates, and ironically enough, first rate cut this time around is also 9/18
Heineken-Ashi
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El_duderino said:

The SPX rose 3% on 9/18/07 when they cut rates, and ironically enough, first rate cut this time around is also 9/18


Quote:

The purpose of Mercury retrograde is to encourage us to slow down and go inward to reflect on the themes of that planet and to perhaps tie up loose ends and make necessary pivots, edits, or course corrections to ultimately be even more successful, productive, or just plain on-track.
Quote:

Mercury retrograde, affectionately also known as "The Trickster," continues to correlate with chaos, volatility, and uncertainty in financial markets. It is also associated with decision-making and policies that are not well-thought-out, with an absence of awareness of the consequences of those decisions and policy changes.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Quacked
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My issue is I went to sleep at 3am with 100 shares of AMD at 115$. Woke up this morning to a message stating the trades made between 1:45 to 4am were canceled due to AtS blue ocean? Had that happen with some others that bought low last night too.
jamey
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AG
I still can't log into schwab
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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ProgN said:

GeorgiAg said:

I really appreciate your post and info. I will def be checking that out!!!!
Disclaimer: I don't have any inside information regarding SAVA and neither does Farmer, but he does hold a considerable long position. Yes, he and I are friends and he is very thorough with his investments.

It has been interesting the incredible share price appreciation that SAVA has undergone the past few days in the face of a very shaky market. Last I read, that they will be releasing 3rd phase human trials results shortly and if Simuflam's efficacy is verifiable, then they will apply for expedited FDA approval.

I also know that $LLY are crushing all other pharma bigs and their pipeline is deep. $MRK & $PFE are at risk of falling further behind $LLY because their drug pipeline sucks. I think there is a good chance that SAVA will be bought out by one of the Bigs for Simuflam and the patent. Don't buy it on my speculation, because this is just my educated guess.
Adding to Prog's post,.....**for anyone &everyone**,...... just know as in any stock, it carries risk. This is a hero or zero stock.

Prog is correct, I have no inside info. The only people with inside info work for Cassava, and only one person in that org has insight to the double blind study info - by law.

Be prepared to lose your entire investment if the FDA does not approve this drug. It's black & white, day & night, right or wrong, and can't be anymore clear. Do your own DD. If you invest, don't invest more than you can afford to lose. It carries that kind of risk. This ain't Exxon.

Right now, book value on the SAVA shares is around $4, based on an office building owned in Austin, TX and cash in the bank. That's it. Book value will decline moving forward as cash burn will decrease that portion of the asset base.
Heineken-Ashi
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Regarding SAVA, I have this being an upward correction, with renewed selling to follow. But I put almost no confidence in Elliott Wave on pharma companies that don't have a long history and deep pantry of very successful drugs. Only well establish ones will operate on mass sentiment which is needed for EW. Companies in their infancy, without any drug approvals, and without any profit, might act on sentiment between news events if widely traded.. but will be completely dependent on fundamentals (drug approvals) and news drops.

Long story short, you're not going to learn anything on what's next for SAVA from anything technical. And as Farmer states, if you don't know the results ahead of time, its a gamble.

Dont have money invested you aren't willing to lose. I had a lot back in the day on PROG (now BIOR) and that worked out not well. I was trading technicals that didn't matter.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
EliteZags
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AG
RH suspended overnight trading tonight
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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HA, you nailed that $34 resistance - it was there today. Next should be $42. Pierced today but retreated.

Agree, no TA applies to this stock.

The manipulation of this stock over the past 3+ years is unbelievable, but it happened.



EliteZags
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AG
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