GeorgiAg said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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kyle field 94 said:

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What are we all missing here with Sava?

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I don't know you're level of DD or keeping up with SAVA, Hard for me to say what you/we are missing. Here's some info for you. It's 47 to 51 days before Phase3 Rethink is completed. Phase3 Refocus doesn't stop until May 2025 I believe. 89% of patients coming off P3 trials are electing to continue in the study - an Open Label Extension. It got to a point where SAVA couldn't afford to continue the extention program financially and liabiltywise. Two DSDM site reviews and 100% saftey confirmed. Over 2 million doses given and no serious side effect reported. Last week FDA provided a 3 year extension to patients rolling off P3 trials (that's not an FDA approval, but use some latitude in your thinking, 89% patients continuing and FDA providing a compassionate care extension of 3 years or until the drug is approved) they get simulfilam. Remi Barbier is out as CEO...wasnt a bad move. Dr Burns is on a consulting agreement with Cassava for 1 year and has a 1 year option...that sign should tell you a buyout is in the making and the Buyer will need her help. They keep Dr. Burns on until a deal is done, IN MY OPINION. This BS of DOJ charging Dr. Wang is bogus...he plead "not gulity" this morning. Articles right now on Schwab and Fidelity showing he plead "guilty" - the articles have been manipulated. With RB, Dr. LB and Dr. Wang now out of the company, the Shorts & Fudsters are having difficulty coming up with BS stories to try and pressure the stock price. The Float is 48.7 million, Short is 16.3 million, 3 million borrowed, so 19.3 million short, excluding phantom shares and total naked selling. I think this company has been short 3X to 5X. Sandford Robertson, Board Member, died over the weekend, he's a Long. NO ONE internally has sold a single freakin' share! NO ONE. IMO, this drug will become a medical breakthrough. Shorts and Fudsters can talk it down all they want, but they can't stop the Phase 3 trials. Phase 3 Data should blow the doors off medical thinking. I think the company gets bought out before P3 Rethink data hits the streets. There is a lot at risk here, some Big Pharma is going to buy this company and be the king, IMO. The rest will take back seat. Think of all the companies, fund raising oufits, high paying jobs, etc. that go away IF this drug works. There's a lot of people that do not want to see this drug succeed. Lot's of people, evil people, worst that humanity has to offer and I know who some are but not all. I have kept in contact with the alzheimers association for the past 3 years. Their stance is remarkably non-existent. I haven't even touched on the competitve alzheimers drugs and what has happened to them in the last 6 months. Too much info and I'm building a wall of words now. 3 million shares were shorted at $3, 8 million shares were shorted at $9 and the rest scattered to $20 per share. The Shorts have not covered. THERE ARE NO SHARES TO BUY AT THE AMOUNT THEY NEED. Even at the last dip, Shorts did not cover. This is not investing advice. Do your own DD. I'm giving you high points, because I don't see any negative points outside the biggest one - FDA REJECTION. As ProgN noted before, it's a hero or zero. You probably know which of those two I am thinking it is. If you own shares, do not lend them. Brokerage houses are paying up to 218%. If you lend them, good luck! When this stock really takes off, go luck if the brokerage house can find your shares. They're only responsible for refunding the share price on the day you lent them.....taking candy from a baby. I have no love for the Short Sellers involved in this stock. They have purposely kept this drug off the market by stalling/slowing the Cassava's progress, petitioned the FDA to stop Phase 3 trials before they started, and then created a company fronted by a guy, Dr. David Bredt, that said Cassava was fake science but he quotes their science in his drug for the company he is starting (RAPP). This is so messed up. I hope wrongful death lawsuits occur against these Short Sellers. The Short Sellers, IMO, are responsible for at least 1 million deaths of Alzheimers patients and stopped the rest of AD afflicted people from a better quality of life by stalling this drug. Marc Cohodes is involved in this too in a bad way. Two years ago I had a Short Seller on another site threaten my life over SAVA. I got the screen shots. I hope they make a movie about this.

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Holy wall of text, Batman! Here's a ChatGPT summary:

Here's a summary of the information:

• Phase 3 Trials: The completion of Phase 3 Rethink is about 47 to 51 days away. Phase 3 Refocus is expected to continue until May 2025. The majority (89%) of patients exiting Phase 3 trials are choosing to continue in the study through an Open Label Extension.
• Financial and Safety Issues: Cassava Sciences (SAVA) faced financial and liability challenges in continuing the extension program. However, safety reviews confirm that over 2 million doses have been administered with no serious side effects reported.
• FDA and Management Changes: The FDA has granted a 3-year extension for compassionate care to patients transitioning off Phase 3 trials. Remi Barbier is out as CEO, and Dr. Burns is on a consulting agreement with Cassava, which some interpret as a sign of a potential buyout. Dr. Wang, another key figure, has pleaded "not guilty" to charges, countering misleading reports that he pled "guilty."
• Stock and Short Selling: Short selling activity is significant, with 48.7 million shares outstanding, 16.3 million short, and 3 million borrowed shares. There is a belief that the company might be the target of a buyout before Phase 3 Rethink data is released.
• Market Dynamics: There are concerns that shorts and detractors are manipulating the stock and potentially hindering progress. No internal shares have been sold, and there are high stakes involved if the drug succeeds.
• Legal and Ethical Issues: There are accusations that short sellers have intentionally obstructed the drug's progress, potentially causing significant harm to Alzheimer's patients. This situation has led to calls for potential legal actions against these short sellers.

The writer emphasizes optimism about the drug's potential while urging caution and independent research.

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I love you man! ( no homo ) .... Glad you mentioned ChatGPT.

AI was used on the numbers SAVA has released from their studies, so far. Originally, a poster on another site who is a clinical math wiz, kept saying the math showed less than a .01 chance of failure.....meaning statistical significance would be achieved. He went on for months changing inputs on the SAVA data based on previous studies/trials that were published and could not get the SAVA numbers to fail.

A few months later, someone plugged his data into ChatGPT and sure enough, it gave a result that statistical significance would be achieved and the drug approved. I decided to perform the test myself,...yep, got the same result. The Phase 3 trials arent over, but I think this drug is going to be approved.

thanks for the explanation amigo. I agree completely... this made me laugh though:

it appears your carry trade wasn’t so risk free after all, mr. bond pic.twitter.com/86Z2rD3cDn

— sophie (@netcapgirl) August 5, 2024

Here's something to watch for. So far, we are holding the 2007 fractal extremely closely. Remember, this is the same year, and roughly the same time of year, that bond yield started tanking in 2007 following a year of FED pause above 5% and jawboning about "need more data to feel sure we've beaten inflation". The JPY carry trade also started to unwind then.

SPX bottomed on Aug 4, the first Monday of the month, down 8% from its recent high. It then rebounded strongly for 2 days, retracing the drop by nearly 61.8%, topping on Wednesday Aug 6. It then sold back off through Thursday Aug 15th, slightly more than a 100% extension of the initial drop from the Wednesday top. Following that bottom, the market mostly went up for 56 days to a new high with the real acceleration starting September 10th and ending October 11th. What came next was.. well.. you know.. the thing.



Similarly, we bottomed from a recent high on the first Monday of August after bond yields started to sell off and the blow up of the JPY carry trade. A 61.8% retrace takes us to 5452 on Wednesday. A 100% extension move of the initial drop from that point would put the SPX around the low 4900's next Thursday. 56 days from that is October 12th and a similar target would be SPX 5750.



Based on the 2007 crash beginning, (warning - projection based on a single fractal in time and likely not to play out the exact same way, if it all) the election this year would fall with SPX back down to pretty much where are today give or take some. There would be a low in late November probably just north of SPX 5000, a rebound back to the area we are in today by mid December, and then a Christmas selloff lasting through January followed by the first major bottom in March in the 4480 range.