Business & Investing
Sponsored by

Stock Markets

24,621,109 Views | 233245 Replies | Last: 41 min ago by El_duderino
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Question for HA or some of the other long time experts.

Clearly, everyone in America is trying to learn about bonds today lol. Inversion foretells the recession. Uninversion heralds recession onset. Does depth of inversion predict severity or does depth not matter as much?
Howdy Doc!

How's your little wingman doing? I know he's doing great because if he was sick and you're an elite surgeon you couldn't say it, because we'd give you hell, lol.

Have you moved on to bonds and are through slumming with us plebs dabbling in stocks?

BaylorSpineGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ProgN said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

Question for HA or some of the other long time experts.

Clearly, everyone in America is trying to learn about bonds today lol. Inversion foretells the recession. Uninversion heralds recession onset. Does depth of inversion predict severity or does depth not matter as much?
Howdy Doc!

How's your little wingman doing? I know he's doing great because if he was sick and you're an elite surgeon you couldn't say it, because we'd give you hell, lol.

Have you moved on to bonds and are through slumming with us plebs dabbling in stocks?




Never. Moved my entire 401K to bonds in Nov '22. Would've been right but I failed to exit bond position after SIVB bailout. It looks like patience is paying tho. Guessing we will revisit those bond yields again within months!

Just trying to assess if indeed recession is upon us, how bad to expect it? My business partner and I negotiated a heck of a deal with our employer. Nearly 50% call pay raise right as the market seems to be turning!

The boy is good. Will share recent photo of our trip to Antigua. Took the whole family. Was lovely!

ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BaylorSpineGuy said:

ProgN said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

Question for HA or some of the other long time experts.

Clearly, everyone in America is trying to learn about bonds today lol. Inversion foretells the recession. Uninversion heralds recession onset. Does depth of inversion predict severity or does depth not matter as much?
Howdy Doc!

How's your little wingman doing? I know he's doing great because if he was sick and you're an elite surgeon you couldn't say it, because we'd give you hell, lol.

Have you moved on to bonds and are through slumming with us plebs dabbling in stocks?




. Nearly 50% call pay raise right as the market seems to be turning!

The boy is good. Will share recent photo of our trip to Antigua. Took the whole family. Was lovely!


Quote:

Nearly 50% call pay raise right as the market seems to be turning


You were blessed with a beautiful family doc! It's good to see you brother.
BaylorSpineGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Miss you, Prog! Appreciate the kind words!! Will come around as I can. Lot of mixed signals in the market today but I never recall markets bottoming in August when September is most bearish month.

The Model T from Oct bottom to July high is 487, so we still have a good ways to go! Obviously not in a straight line, but that's fair target. What happens at that level is anyone's guess.

Look at SPY on yearly chart. Big candle in 2021 to peak at 4800 and then big red candle in 2022 followed by green tweezer right back to about 4800. It would be fitting for market to park the SPX right at 4800ish by year end to show a gravestone doji/false breakout.
Dan Scott
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
According to Tom Lee who is bullish, the unemployment rate is overstated. He makes the point that Hurricane Beryl caused over a million people and business to be without power for a week in the month. Unemployment claims in Texas are up while rest of country is down. Also said there is a huge increased in weather being the response for unemployed in July. And all this gets corrected in the August report which would confirm if it's really that bad out there.

Interesting perspective.
Dan Scott
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
He also said that last time rates made a move like this lower it triggered a huge rally. That was back in October 2023.
Dan Scott
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Dan Scott
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Txducker
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Brewmaster said:

confucius_ag said:

PLTR earnings on Monday.

some good volume into the close (buys). I added some shares.

SLV and GLD had quite a bit of call volume before the close. I added more SLV sharesI
I also went long some more SLV today. Bought shares, calls, and sold some puts. It's got a daily flag consolidation that should break one way next week. It closed above yesterday's close and closed higher on the weekly time frame (bullish).
Heineken-Ashi
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Question for HA or some of the other long time experts.

Clearly, everyone in America is trying to learn about bonds today lol. Inversion foretells the recession. Uninversion heralds recession onset. Does depth of inversion predict severity or does depth not matter as much?


Bull steepening. Look it up. But be careful. Most sources call it bullish for equities. It's not, not when it comes from a rate raising environment. Last major one was 2007. Almost exactly like we are seeing now in the same time of year.

Also, I posted a couple pages back about the JPY carry trade and how that's affecting global liquidity.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Dan Scott said:

According to Tom Lee who is bullish, the unemployment rate is overstated. He makes the point that Hurricane Beryl caused over a million people and business to be without power for a week in the month. Unemployment claims in Texas are up while rest of country is down. Also said there is a huge increased in weather being the response for unemployed in July. And all this gets corrected in the August report which would confirm if it's really that bad out there.

Interesting perspective.

Yes, the weather in Houston made the entire market selloff. Had nothing to do with JPY reversing and global liquidity leaving to cover JPY carry trade shorts.

I'm sure the Nikkei (-5%), Hang Seng (-2%), KOSPI (-3.65%), Euronext 100 (-2.7%), and every other major world index being down on the same day while VIX was up 25% was because of US weather.

Tom Lee has made some good calls. But he's missing the forest on this one. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market make new highs. But it won't be because people realized they overfreaked over a jobs report and a hurricane. Today had nothing to do with retail. Who on this forum was selling stocks today? Wall Street Bets? Anyone? Retail has some cash on the side waiting to deploy. The last two days were a global liquidity event. And likely more than just twitchy algos. Global money moves in massive amounts day to day to fund liquidity. And when one of the main drivers reverses, it forces covering. The money to cover has to come from somewhere. Whether this downturn continues or not is TBD.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tom Lee also made this call this year..



This chart is already in log mode FYI. He's predicting we stay on the October 2022 to present trend for the next 6 years.

The only way SPX gets to $15k is through amounts of stimulus that make all of 2008 through 2020 look like mosquito on a hippo's ass. The steepness of that chart is the steepness of the loss of the value of the dollar if reversed. And the only way you get to something like that, is by going through a 2008 type liquidity event on steroids with world central banks throwing all of their chips in. And that chart doesn't happen without 3rd world levels of inflation in every major country.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
HoustonAg2014
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Dan Scott said:




Blame CenterPoint. They caused people from all over the country to come to Houston to not get paid. I'm don't believe that the numbers are fully based on that but next month we shall see.
Heineken-Ashi
How long do you want to ignore this user?
NFLX - Didn't play this one but should have. Another weekly ich cloud reversal playing out to perfection. Had a potential top in June, traced it down to a 21 week reversal to $597. Today got to $608, and still have through November for it to hit. And the one level lower target, though it seems unlikely, is still on the table $130 lower with 3 weeks to go and happens to line up with the 144 weekly EMA.



I've been playing with this strategy for a little over a month, and the success rate is wild. It works best on standard longs and shorts as even though you have a timing target, you don't have to deal with time decay when not doing options. And it works on any timeframe. But it only works on a candle that ends up marking a top or bottom in a pattern. If you get a continued move up or down, the cloud and lagging span line will adjust with it and could throw off the trade (especially if its a renewed trend against your reversal). But it's truly amazing how often price will pin to this target on any sort of high or low, even on very short timeframes.

It's also why I see patterns like this and straight up avoid trading. I love messing with FOREX, but the when lagging span of the ich cloud is literally sitting on the candles, there just shouldn't be any expectation of significant moves, even if you a high or low is struck in the pattern. You just have to wait for the next pattern to play out.



"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Heineken-Ashi
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Here's a quick study looking at 55min candles (fib number closest to 1hr) of EURUSD in a 1 month trading range. If we only take the ich cloud reversal trades that look to have enough range to be worth trading, we would have gone 7-5 purely on wins and losses based on the minimum target within 21 periods of the potential high or low.



But as you can see, the wins were all pretty good. The losses still reversed like you would have expected, but didn't get down to minimum target. Only 1-2 losses didn't approach halfway of the potential minimum target. This is why I add in EMA's and Keltners. Because if you have a wide range, but EMA's and Keltners don't show readings at your minimum target, then your min target shifts to the likely range of where the significant EMA's and Keltner bands are. That's what takes this from a 50%-60% strategy to a 75-80% strategy.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
GaryClare said:

Petrino1 said:

hedge said:

Would it be prudent of me to start throwing some money at VOO?
The S&P is down over -6%. Now is about as good of time as any to buy.
I respect the thought process of most of the posters here and I would enjoy reading everyone's perspective on what goes through my mind all the time ...

Here is my struggle with the thought that the S&P being down 6% today is a buying opportunity. The S&P 52 week low is 4,103. It's 5,335 now and the 52 week high is 5,669. How exactly is the business climate any different at any time between August 1st of 2023 and August 2024? How does one think we are in better shape economically now than we were a year ago when the S&P was 25% lower? In March of 2020 the S&P was 2,300 and the world was fine and not in an economic apocalypse. Why can't it go back to 2,300 just as easy as it went to 5,669?

A guy scrolls through the PE's of stock after stock and you just shake your head. No one would buy one of these companies if they were truly "buying a share of a business". Would anyone buy a business in their town that would take 27 years to get back your investment? Maybe you can "grow" it and double the net and get your money back in 13. And that's just the S&P "average". That's a tough way to invest money. Yet that's where we are when we get in the market now. You can see company after company that's not making real money, with no prospects for growth trading at 50 times. Lithia Auto had an increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit and they went up $13 a share yesterday. Increased revenue with lower profits would not appear to be a great economic indicator, as volume was actually a negative in this instance, yet the market seemed to love it. It sure appears as if we are in irrational times.

So ... It seems like a 6% decrease is really nothing compared to a 2,300 S&P that was probably overpriced then and the world was just fine. What am I missing?

I will hang up and listen!


I'm going to suggest that you can no longer apply the same metrics to the market of today. I read Peter Lynch's, and Warren Buffett's books 3 decades ago, but times have changed. At that time there wasn't smartphones, instead I had a Motorola analog flip phone that their roaming charge rivaled 1-900 #s, You applying that metric to today's market is misguided. It has dramatically changed and the amount of money that flows into and out of the market daily is beyond comprehension. There are, and have been, high school kids trading stocks via Robinhood for awhile now. You can't apply the previous rational logic to today's market. You mentioned PE ratios that make sense. Here are 3 that should meet your criteria. I'm going to sleep, but we can discuss tomorrow if you wish.

Stocks:
POWL
SMCI
LRCX
BlueTaze
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Tom Lee is a fundamentals guy putting most of his weight on AI creating exponential margins. His partner Mark Newton is more of a TA guy, and probably the Fundstrat TV hedge against Tom's outlook. Either way, they will profit with client fees.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sponsor
AG
Berkshire trimmed 50% of its Apple position
Brewmaster
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Brewmaster
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Txducker said:

Brewmaster said:

confucius_ag said:

PLTR earnings on Monday.

some good volume into the close (buys). I added some shares.

SLV and GLD had quite a bit of call volume before the close. I added more SLV sharesI
I also went long some more SLV today. Bought shares, calls, and sold some puts. It's got a daily flag consolidation that should break one way next week. It closed above yesterday's close and closed higher on the weekly time frame (bullish).
Spot on. Yeah I look for 1. HA to beat the SLV drum/ a set up to present itself and 2. for flow to hit it up. Looked like we finally got that on Friday
TTUArmy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Seems to be a lot of money flowing into bonds and treasuries. More downward correction in stock markets?
El_duderino
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Not sure, big volume on the 8/9 $115 NVDA call yesterday though.
Heineken-Ashi
How long do you want to ignore this user?
TTUArmy said:

Seems to be a lot of money flowing into bonds and treasuries. More downward correction in stock markets?
We either experienced a short global liquidity margin call blip, or the beginning of a larger one. And it's directly tied to Japan suddenly raising their base rate from 0% with expectations of more raises on the horizon, and the US expected to drop rates. There's a massive amount of leverage in the system borrowing the Yen, then using the spread between the currencies to lend USD to buy US bonds to capture the higher interest. When the Yen starts moving back up and US bond yields start falling, that spread tightens incredibly and triggers margin calls. There are trillions of dollars that move in this manner intraday and longer.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
TTUArmy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Heineken-Ashi said:

TTUArmy said:

Seems to be a lot of money flowing into bonds and treasuries. More downward correction in stock markets?
We either experienced a short global liquidity margin call blip, or the beginning of a larger one. And it's directly tied to Japan suddenly raising their base rate from 0% with expectations of more raises on the horizon, and the US expected to drop rates. There's a massive amount of leverage in the system borrowing the Yen, then using the spread between the currencies to lend USD to buy US bonds to capture the higher interest. When the Yen starts moving back up and US bond yields start falling, that spread tightens incredibly and triggers margin calls. There are trillions of dollars that move in this manner intraday and longer.


Agreed. Those using Yen carry are playing with fire.
El Chupacabra
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sometimes the market tanks after going straight up and then recovers. Pretty sure it has happened before.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/12/28/investing/stock-market-december-volatility/index.html
TTUArmy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Just spit-ballin here...let me know your thoughts.

If the Nikkei experiences another severe drop tomorrow, anyone think we might get an emergency rate cut from the Fed on Tuesday.
Dan Scott
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Down 1% to start
lobwedgephil
How long do you want to ignore this user?
TTUArmy said:

Just spit-ballin here...let me know your thoughts.

If the Nikkei experiences another severe drop tomorrow, anyone think we might get an emergency rate cut from the Fed on Tuesday.
No. We are barely down over 5% on SPX, we do that on average three times a year.
Heineken-Ashi
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The FED doesn't do emergency cuts because of the stock market. They do it because of the bond market. We wouldn't see an emergency until the 10yr is below 3.25%. That's a full 2-3 years worth of cuts being priced in by bonds, likely signaling that bond investors are preparing for a significant if not imminent recession and deterioration in the economy. And most of the time, that just happens to coincide with money leaving equities for bonds.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
atmag95
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Anyone loading up on HUMA or ASTS this week?

HUMA's FDA approval for trauma indication is due this week.

ASTS just had FCC approval on Friday after close for their first 5 satellites that are expected to go up in late September or early October.

I'm not a calls/puts investor. I have a sizeable amount of HUMA. Btw both stocks I'm up $36k.


hedge
How long do you want to ignore this user?
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

approaching extreme fear from consumer sentiment
txaggie_08
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Japan stocks plunge 7%, extending last week's rout; other Asia-Pacific markets also fall

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/asia-markets.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
hedge
How long do you want to ignore this user?


Well…
Heineken-Ashi
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Futures finishing off last week's action before a bounce is my best guess right now. But you really never know.

If ES gets below 5125 tonight, the worry might pick up. That's about as much of a retrace as I could get comfortable with off the April low and still feel any sort of low level of confidence for one more high.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
First Page Last Page
Page 6555 of 6665
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.