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txaggie_08
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 11:35a, 8/2/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Up to 400 TNA.

Still got a bit of dry powder to average down some more, and also have plenty of BRK.B I can sell.

Did not expect it to get down below 38 so soon. Personally I think it's a gift at this level and think most of today is a huge overreaction, with rate cuts still on the table for September.

Why are you assuming a rate cut will mean market go up? It's likely to be the opposite. Rate cuts will come as economy is slowing and fall into a recession
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ProgN
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In reply to Nealthedestroyer • 11:38a, 8/2/24
Nealthedestroyer said:
Is Intel a buy today? Surely it would recover long hold?
I wouldn't buy it because it's likely to be dead money for quite awhile. They eliminated their dividend, so mutual funds that require their holdings to pay a dividend will be force to dump INTC. They're not going out of business but there are better opportunities on sale right now instead of parking a chunk in INTC. Jmo
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GaryClare
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In reply to Petrino1 • 11:44a, 8/2/24
AG
Petrino1 said:
hedge said:
Would it be prudent of me to start throwing some money at VOO?
The S&P is down over -6%. Now is about as good of time as any to buy.
I respect the thought process of most of the posters here and I would enjoy reading everyone's perspective on what goes through my mind all the time ...

Here is my struggle with the thought that the S&P being down 6% today is a buying opportunity. The S&P 52 week low is 4,103. It's 5,335 now and the 52 week high is 5,669. How exactly is the business climate any different at any time between August 1st of 2023 and August 2024? How does one think we are in better shape economically now than we were a year ago when the S&P was 25% lower? In March of 2020 the S&P was 2,300 and the world was fine and not in an economic apocalypse. Why can't it go back to 2,300 just as easy as it went to 5,669?

A guy scrolls through the PE's of stock after stock and you just shake your head. No one would buy one of these companies if they were truly "buying a share of a business". Would anyone buy a business in their town that would take 27 years to get back your investment? Maybe you can "grow" it and double the net and get your money back in 13. And that's just the S&P "average". That's a tough way to invest money. Yet that's where we are when we get in the market now. You can see company after company that's not making real money, with no prospects for growth trading at 50 times. Lithia Auto had an increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit and they went up $13 a share yesterday. Increased revenue with lower profits would not appear to be a great economic indicator, as volume was actually a negative in this instance, yet the market seemed to love it. It sure appears as if we are in irrational times.

So ... It seems like a 6% decrease is really nothing compared to a 2,300 S&P that was probably overpriced then and the world was just fine. What am I missing?

I will hang up and listen!

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LMCane
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 11:46a, 8/2/24
I have $25K in cash waiting for you to give the word to let fly.

HOOOLD!

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LMCane
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In reply to Bocephus • 11:49a, 8/2/24
Bocephus said:
ProgN said:
hedge said:


Grandma ain't too happy I reckon
I find that more depressing instead of humorous. He was gambling (guessing) with money that he never earned and betrayed the person who worked for it and believed in him. I doubt he could tell you anything of significance about INTC other than that they make microchips and their stock symbol. He didn't have to work for that gracious gift from his grandma and his arrogance flushed her trust down the toilet. I have zero doubt that he didn't learn a damned thing and will trade that gift to zero and then say 'WTF, it's all rigged'. He's only shown the world that his an ungrateful ****ing idiot. His dad should beat the **** out of him, imo.


It's only a loss if you sell

Uh, Intel was $75 dollars TWENTY FOUR YEARS AGO.

it's at $21.10 today.

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Quacked
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In reply to Nealthedestroyer • 11:49a, 8/2/24
I'd only enter Intel if you want to hold past 27 when the foundries get rolling and if they can retake the personal cpu market
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:04p, 8/2/24
Guys, I don't share paywalled content or info I receive from paywalled communities. So I will likely delete this post by end of weekend. But I think it's important. Yall need to understand what's going on with the JPY and Japanese economy and how its creating massive ripples across the entire financial sector.

Quote:
In finance, there are 4 approaches regardless of the sub-sector:
  • Short Term
  • Medium Term
  • Long Term
  • Ultra Long Term
In the case of JPY:
  • Short term: the BOJ is actively trading against hedge funds and running a short squeeze actively
  • Medium Term: Today's decision effectively didn't move away from their "loose" policy of using JGB purchases to maintain financial conditions loose
  • Long term: Japan is currently in RECESSION, exports aren't recovering (and a stronger JPY won't help) while imports are under pressure because of rising prices of everything they need to buy from abroad
  • Ultra Long Term: Japan is depleting its reserves, Debt/GDP is already the HIGHEST in the world at 240% and will keep rising, inflation is eroding the purchasing power of the local population and many parts of the economy, like banking or RE, are effectively zombies on life support for 30+ years now.

Now, you need to understand that spikes in volatility like the ones we saw today and not caused by the underlying economy (that doesn't heal in one day) create big ripple effects across the globe. If you consider JPY to be a currency commanding trillions of leverage in the system, the consequences across the time spectrum are very different.

So don't fall into the mistake of misunderstanding a short-term picture with a medium or longer-term one. BOJ's actions lately and decisions today didn't change anything in the economy, if anything, they are making things worse in the future (https://justdario.com/2024/06/a-peek-into-the-future-usd-jpy-road-to-300/).

On the other side, they are clearly causing damage in the global financial system equilibrium, and believe me once these losses surface you will understand what I am talking about.

To conclude, it is clear that the BOJ ultimately managed to break something in the financial system, now is yet to see the extent of the damage and rest assured the FED and Janet Yellen will not watch this unfolding sitting on the benches in particular when banks' stability is clearly at risk and the risk of an "avalanche" of selling ignited by derivatives positions exploding 1987 style trigger. There will be a rescue attempt at some point, although the more they kick the can down the road, the harder it is to keep this ginormous bubble inflated, in particular when central banks are virtually insolvent themselves (HOW CAN THE #FED BAILOUT BANKS WHEN THIS TIME IT NEEDS A BAILOUT ITSELF TO BEGIN WITH?). Will our heroes succeed in kicking the can down the road long enough for US elections to pass? I am looking forward to enjoying the show.
https://justdario.com/2024/08/a-traveler-guide-to-navigate-the-bank-of-japan-mess/
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to LMCane • 12:06p, 8/2/24
LMCane said:
I have $25K in cash waiting for you to give the word to let fly.

HOOOLD!

My base case is now that top is in, so you likely won't be seeing that recommendation from me unless things change drastically. If you want to try to profit on a short term bounce, I can try and post some guidance, but there's nothing that I would say can be reliable.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:19p, 8/2/24
Go back and search my posts for VXX.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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kyle field 94
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12:22p, 8/2/24
AG
What's going on with Sava?
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:41p, 8/2/24
I tried to warn that rotation wasn't likely to last long, as IWM doesn't ever historically outperform anything else, merely has small blips of outperformance before running in unison in the direction of the overall market. Same thing played out again. When flying trash is the trade, you can almost bet your ass it won't last.



"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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LMCane
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 12:44p, 8/2/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
SMCI $600 close. $550 possible. Tried to tell yall

SMCI has been HAMMERED the last several months (since I bought)

what's the business metrics case explaining why we should believe they will ever get back to $1200?

would love to hear from those who are bullish on it.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to LMCane • 12:48p, 8/2/24
LMCane said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
SMCI $600 close. $550 possible. Tried to tell yall

SMCI has been HAMMERED the last several months (since I bought)

what's the business metrics case explaining why we should believe they will ever get back to $1200?

would love to hear from those who are bullish on it.
That's a ProgN question. He knows the company like the back of his hand. My analysis is purely technical and chart based.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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LMCane
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 12:50p, 8/2/24
Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
Once we lost the earlier lows yesterday, we were always gonna end up here.

What's crazy is knowing the Fed knew these numbers or had hints of where they'd be when they decided not to lower rates this week. I'm no economologist, but that seems like a poor choice.
unless they felt it was the best of only bad choices

meaning if they had cut, that could have led to panic as most on Wall Street are seeing the weakness in the underlying economy now.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to kyle field 94 • 12:52p, 8/2/24
kyle field 94 said:
What's going on with Sava?


Potential for painful reversal if it doesn't blow through $34 and then never get back below it.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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LMCane
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In reply to Nealthedestroyer • 12:53p, 8/2/24
Nealthedestroyer said:
Is Intel a buy today? Surely it would recover long hold?
And don't call me shirley

have you looked at a stock chart for Intel.

It was $73 dollars in 2003.

It's $23.17 today.

does that answer your question?
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LMCane
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In reply to SF2004 • 12:56p, 8/2/24
SF2004 said:
Some of you must ignore beer candle guy's post.

If you are investing just continue DCA.

If you are trading then you need to understand that rate cuts ARE NOT GOOD right now. That is what starts the sell off as money rushes to lock up long term yields. Watch bond yields.

Increase rates in these environments is to literally slow down growth, and most equities are for growth.

Rotation to bonds and value has just started.

this is exactly what Guy Adami on Fast Money has been stating the last several months

. that cutting rates is not some panacea into a weakening economy-

and historically it is THEN that the markets begin to fall off.
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:11p, 8/2/24
If CLSK breaks below $13.70, $10 is on the table and I plan to LOAD TF UP.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 1:12p, 8/2/24
AG
GreasenUSA said:
In the last 40 years, on average, the S&P 500 enters a 20% drawdown in the first 9 months after starting a rate cut cycle.

I suppose that means that the divergence could start to close, but you're going to see downward pressure on all indexes.



Just reposting in case anyone missed what historically happens in a rate cut cycle.
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:20p, 8/2/24
There goes CLSK. Ich cloud weekly reversal in play. Puts are green green now. Will probably sell 75% of them by end of day. Buy order for shares set at $11 and will buy more if it gets to $10. If for some reason we see $5-$7, I will 4-5x the position.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 1:31p, 8/2/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
kyle field 94 said:
What's going on with Sava?


Potential for painful reversal if it doesn't blow through $34 and then never get back below it.

Somehow this announcement has negated the effect of the resignations of the ceo and svp neurosciences last month?

Cassava Sciences to Hold Conference Call to Discuss Recent Developments and Provide a Company Update on Thursday, August 8, 2024 at 8:30 am ET
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gougler08
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1:39p, 8/2/24
AG
My ASO alert to buy went off, so hopping in there
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jamey
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 1:39p, 8/2/24
AG
GreasenUSA said:
GreasenUSA said:
In the last 40 years, on average, the S&P 500 enters a 20% drawdown in the first 9 months after starting a rate cut cycle.

I suppose that means that the divergence could start to close, but you're going to see downward pressure on all indexes.



Just reposting in case anyone missed what historically happens in a rate cut cycle.


Is this a similar situation to the last 40 years though?


We aren't cutting because the economy is a wreck. It's being pushed but isn't it more of an unwinding of the push to fight inflation, and thr inflation itself was not natural but do to irresponsible handouts and free money. Seems like it's the reaction to something more unnatural than the normal ebb and flow of an economy

40 yrs ago we had glass steagal, ans no 2008 crazy train took place, our government spending was more responsible and no covid
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ProgN
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In reply to GaryClare • 1:41p, 8/2/24
I'll give you my answer to your question after the close today if that's ok?
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to txaggie_08 • 1:43p, 8/2/24
AG
txaggie_08 said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Up to 400 TNA.

Still got a bit of dry powder to average down some more, and also have plenty of BRK.B I can sell.

Did not expect it to get down below 38 so soon. Personally I think it's a gift at this level and think most of today is a huge overreaction, with rate cuts still on the table for September.

Why are you assuming a rate cut will mean market go up? It's likely to be the opposite. Rate cuts will come as economy is slowing and fall into a recession
Not so much the rate cuts themselves as much as the anticipation of those rate cuts coming within the next two months.
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M4 Benelli
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In reply to LMCane • 1:49p, 8/2/24
LMCane said:
Nealthedestroyer said:
Is Intel a buy today? Surely it would recover long hold?
And don't call me shirley

have you looked at a stock chart for Intel.

It was $73 dollars in 2003.

It's $23.17 today.

does that answer your question?


You're obnoxious.
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Bulldog73
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1:55p, 8/2/24
AG
Most things today seem like trying to catch a falling knife.
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ProgN
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 1:55p, 8/2/24
I can't tell if his post is saying INTC is a buy or to avoid it.
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Spoony Love
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In reply to ProgN • 2:01p, 8/2/24
AG
Some of us need it spelled out. Not me , but some of us do.


J/k, it's me.
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confucius_ag
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2:05p, 8/2/24
AG
For the time being I am not buying anything until it is at least close to the 200dma.
There are several on my watchlist that still have a ways to go before I nibble.
"Me not know, me not tell, me push button and run like hell."
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hedge
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2:08p, 8/2/24
I have about ~65k in cash right now, ready to deploy when the time comes. Something feels different about this drop, I'm not smart enough to make predictions on how far it will go…
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El Chupacabra
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2:34p, 8/2/24
Glad I went to lunch and had 3 pints...I see I'm still not wealthy.
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Heineken-Ashi
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2:39p, 8/2/24
SELL EVERYTHING

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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South Platte
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In reply to El Chupacabra • 2:40p, 8/2/24
El Chupacabra said:
Glad I went to lunch and had 3 pints...I see I'm still not wealthy.
HA has saved me a ton of money today. I've played with POWL and some energy stocks, but mostly I've got metals, which are holding their own today. Hopefully that continues.

I'm looking at SPXS and FAZ right now if I feel this pullback continues.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:42p, 8/2/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
SELL EVERYTHING



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