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Heineken-Ashi
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8:56a, 8/2/24
SMCI about to touch the daily lower Keltner band and its in the $600 range. Wait for confirmation a low is in.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:02a, 8/2/24
SMCI, if you do jump in, keep in mind that this has formed a perfect downside setup. It won't invalidate at this point until above $774 and should it make a full 5-waves down, target would be $475-$525 on the low end.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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FishrCoAg
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9:09a, 8/2/24
AG
Thoughts on selling puts on SMCI? Right now the Aug9 495 is 9.60 bid.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:09a, 8/2/24


Pivot zones are outlined on the chart. The green is the important box should a bounce start. Need to get through that.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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harge57
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9:16a, 8/2/24
AG
For those holding a little bit of cash how do you start to enter and try to avoid catching a falling knife? Just stage your entry in with appropriate stops?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to harge57 • 9:18a, 8/2/24
harge57 said:
For those holding a little bit of cash how do you start to enter and try to avoid catching a falling knife? Just stage your entry in with appropriate stops?
Wait for confirmation of bottom and a non-overlapping move off of it. We are in a very short gamma regime with very high volatility. Front running a bottom right now is a death wish.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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harge57
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:21a, 8/2/24
AG
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:24a, 8/2/24
Up 800% on ZION puts. Man these ich cloud reversals really pay when they hit.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Aglaw97
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In reply to harge57 • 9:27a, 8/2/24
AG
harge57 said:
For those holding a little bit of cash how do you start to enter and try to avoid catching a falling knife? Just stage your entry in with appropriate stops?
It depends on your goals and whether you are short term vs long term.
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TxAG#2011
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9:28a, 8/2/24
Probably speaking too soon but Bitcoin is somehow hanging on here despite this bloodbath. Any other time in its hisotory and it would be a massacre.
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El Chupacabra
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9:33a, 8/2/24
AAPL green in a sea of red.
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El_duderino
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9:33a, 8/2/24
AMD as well for once
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harge57
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In reply to Aglaw97 • 9:38a, 8/2/24
AG
Aglaw97 said:
harge57 said:
For those holding a little bit of cash how do you start to enter and try to avoid catching a falling knife? Just stage your entry in with appropriate stops?
It depends on your goals and whether you are short term vs long term.
I am very long term (20 years). I almost never sell my positions, mostly just reallocate with limits and stops. I simply infuse new capital at a constant rate. Right now I am sitting at 20% cash in my brokerage accounts with the rest having heavy Tech exposure (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, SMCI, POWL, UBER), (401k just constantly maxing out and staying at 100% diversified equity).
The 20% cash is mostly new cash waiting to be deployed earning ~5% in a money market.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:38a, 8/2/24
CLSK broke below the sideways box.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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gougler08
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In reply to El Chupacabra • 9:38a, 8/2/24
AG
El Chupacabra said:
AAPL green in a sea of red.
RKT is rocketing somehow
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Aglaw97
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In reply to harge57 • 9:47a, 8/2/24
AG
harge57 said:
Aglaw97 said:
harge57 said:
For those holding a little bit of cash how do you start to enter and try to avoid catching a falling knife? Just stage your entry in with appropriate stops?
It depends on your goals and whether you are short term vs long term.
I am very long term (20 years). I almost never sell my positions, mostly just reallocate with limits and stops. I simply infuse new capital at a constant rate. Right now I am sitting at 20% cash in my brokerage accounts with the rest having heavy Tech exposure (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, SMCI, POWL, UBER), (401k just constantly maxing out and staying at 100% diversified equity).
The 20% cash is mostly new cash waiting to be deployed earning ~5% in a money market.
Just my $.02. Sounds like you are taking care of regular contributions to retirement without worrying about shorter market cycles. You correctly state that trying to catch a falling knife or timing a market is a dangerous game. Given your timeframe to retirement, I wouldn't worry about market cycles right now because your retirement horizon is still a ways off.

As for the cash, depends whether that's truly just gravy you want to use to take on a little more risk or diversify your overall portfolio. I'm a big believer is building your foundation and continuing to maintain that and then let excess cash be something you can 'play' with or use to explore other investment opportunities.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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9:49a, 8/2/24
Once we lost the earlier lows yesterday, we were always gonna end up here.

What's crazy is knowing the Fed knew these numbers or had hints of where they'd be when they decided not to lower rates this week. I'm no economologist, but that seems like a poor choice.
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South Platte
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9:52a, 8/2/24
American Tower, AMT, still rolling. That was a recommendation from OA a couple of months ago that has done really well.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:59a, 8/2/24
Market maybe trying to bounce here. Out of all short term puts. +$10k today after +$4.5k yesterday. But lose some O&G stocks to stops. Crazy two days.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Aglaw97
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:59a, 8/2/24
AG
Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
Once we lost the earlier lows yesterday, we were always gonna end up here.

What's crazy is knowing the Fed knew these numbers or had hints of where they'd be when they decided not to lower rates this week. I'm no economologist, but that seems like a poor choice.
Go back and look at the policies of the 1970s that led to high inflation then stagflation. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place and has even less options to fix this. There is no good answer at this point. A 'soft landing' was always a unicorn that was extremely unlikely to be found.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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10:13a, 8/2/24
AG
Up to 400 TNA.

Still got a bit of dry powder to average down some more, and also have plenty of BRK.B I can sell.

Did not expect it to get down below 38 so soon. Personally I think it's a gift at this level and think most of today is a huge overreaction, with rate cuts still on the table for September.
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Heineken-Ashi
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10:18a, 8/2/24
Ok, Silver ticked the ideal low for a Wave 2 in the micro count. Needs to hold. Not end of world if it drops another 50 cents.

Hold here and start moving back up impulsively and the next 1-2 months could be massive.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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M4 Benelli
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10:19a, 8/2/24
Intel kid down another 27 percent. (Prob 200k)

My plan for today? Do nothing, practice stoicism.
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hedge
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10:24a, 8/2/24
Would it be prudent of me to start throwing some money at VOO?
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El Chupacabra
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10:31a, 8/2/24
40% cash...but damn, still tough to see months of gains wiped out in 2 days.

also, I hate vanguards platform.
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Petrino1
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In reply to hedge • 10:31a, 8/2/24
hedge said:
Would it be prudent of me to start throwing some money at VOO?
The S&P is down over -6%. Now is about as good of time as any to buy.
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El Chupacabra
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In reply to hedge • 10:32a, 8/2/24
hedge said:
Would it be prudent of me to start throwing some money at VOO?
I think the answer to that is always 'what's your timeframe?"
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Furlock Bones
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In reply to hedge • 10:37a, 8/2/24
AG
the best way to buy VOO is on autobuys throughout the year.
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Nealthedestroyer
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10:49a, 8/2/24
AG
Is Intel a buy today? Surely it would recover long hold?
Vae Victis
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to Nealthedestroyer • 10:54a, 8/2/24
AG
Nealthedestroyer said:
Is Intel a buy today? Surely it would recover long hold?
Maybe, if you want to risk changing your name from Nealthedestroyer to Wealthdestroyer.

I have owned it off and on over the years, and I just think there are better places to put your money near-term. They seem to have grown too dependent on big government-assisted home runs to work their way out of the doldrums, and competitors seem to be a lot more nimble and able to meet changing customer demand.

Just one Ag's opinion...
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El Chupacabra
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In reply to Nealthedestroyer • 10:54a, 8/2/24
Nealthedestroyer said:
Is Intel a buy today? Surely it would recover long hold?
I'm pretty bad at this game, but I'm starting a position...nibbling to start. I've bought about 15% of the position I'll end up with.

My hold timeframe is approximately 20 years if needed.
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WestTexasAg
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 10:59a, 8/2/24
AG
M4 Benelli said:
Intel kid down another 27 percent. (Prob 200k)

My plan for today? Do nothing, practice stoicism.
Intel a buy at some point?


NVM. Saw some answers just above.
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gggmann
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11:09a, 8/2/24
AG
MELI up almost 10% today. That's good considering the rest of the market.
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EnronAg
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11:15a, 8/2/24
AG
had a decent chunk of cash...just threw some on some buy/writes in MRNA and ARM...I know the board loves ARM long term...but thoughts on MRNA for long term??
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SF2004
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11:32a, 8/2/24
AG
Some of you must ignore beer candle guy's post.

If you are investing just continue DCA.

If you are trading then you need to understand that rate cuts ARE NOT GOOD right now. That is what starts the sell off as money rushes to lock up long term yields. Watch bond yields.

Increase rates in these environments is to literally slow down growth, and most equities are for growth.

Rotation to bonds and value has just started.
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