Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Up to 400 TNA.

Still got a bit of dry powder to average down some more, and also have plenty of BRK.B I can sell.

Did not expect it to get down below 38 so soon. Personally I think it's a gift at this level and think most of today is a huge overreaction, with rate cuts still on the table for September.

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Why are you assuming a rate cut will mean market go up? It's likely to be the opposite. Rate cuts will come as economy is slowing and fall into a recession

Nealthedestroyer said:

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Is Intel a buy today? Surely it would recover long hold?

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I wouldn't buy it because it's likely to be dead money for quite awhile. They eliminated their dividend, so mutual funds that require their holdings to pay a dividend will be force to dump INTC. They're not going out of business but there are better opportunities on sale right now instead of parking a chunk in INTC. Jmo

Petrino1 said:

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hedge said:

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Would it be prudent of me to start throwing some money at VOO?

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The S&P is down over -6%. Now is about as good of time as any to buy.

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I respect the thought process of most of the posters here and I would enjoy reading everyone's perspective on what goes through my mind all the time ...

Here is my struggle with the thought that the S&P being down 6% today is a buying opportunity. The S&P 52 week low is 4,103. It's 5,335 now and the 52 week high is 5,669. How exactly is the business climate any different at any time between August 1st of 2023 and August 2024? How does one think we are in better shape economically now than we were a year ago when the S&P was 25% lower? In March of 2020 the S&P was 2,300 and the world was fine and not in an economic apocalypse. Why can't it go back to 2,300 just as easy as it went to 5,669?

A guy scrolls through the PE's of stock after stock and you just shake your head. No one would buy one of these companies if they were truly "buying a share of a business". Would anyone buy a business in their town that would take 27 years to get back your investment? Maybe you can "grow" it and double the net and get your money back in 13. And that's just the S&P "average". That's a tough way to invest money. Yet that's where we are when we get in the market now. You can see company after company that's not making real money, with no prospects for growth trading at 50 times. Lithia Auto had an increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit and they went up $13 a share yesterday. Increased revenue with lower profits would not appear to be a great economic indicator, as volume was actually a negative in this instance, yet the market seemed to love it. It sure appears as if we are in irrational times.

So ... It seems like a 6% decrease is really nothing compared to a 2,300 S&P that was probably overpriced then and the world was just fine. What am I missing?

I will hang up and listen!

Guys, I don't share paywalled content or info I receive from paywalled communities. So I will likely delete this post by end of weekend. But I think it's important. Yall need to understand what's going on with the JPY and Japanese economy and how its creating massive ripples across the entire financial sector.

Quote:

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In finance, there are 4 approaches regardless of the sub-sector:

• Short Term
• Medium Term
• Long Term
• Ultra Long Term

In the case of JPY:

• Short term: the BOJ is actively trading against hedge funds and running a short squeeze actively
• Medium Term: Today's decision effectively didn't move away from their "loose" policy of using JGB purchases to maintain financial conditions loose
• Long term: Japan is currently in RECESSION, exports aren't recovering (and a stronger JPY won't help) while imports are under pressure because of rising prices of everything they need to buy from abroad
• Ultra Long Term: Japan is depleting its reserves, Debt/GDP is already the HIGHEST in the world at 240% and will keep rising, inflation is eroding the purchasing power of the local population and many parts of the economy, like banking or RE, are effectively zombies on life support for 30+ years now.

Now, you need to understand that spikes in volatility like the ones we saw today and not caused by the underlying economy (that doesn't heal in one day) create big ripple effects across the globe. If you consider JPY to be a currency commanding trillions of leverage in the system, the consequences across the time spectrum are very different.

So don't fall into the mistake of misunderstanding a short-term picture with a medium or longer-term one. BOJ's actions lately and decisions today didn't change anything in the economy, if anything, they are making things worse in the future (https://justdario.com/2024/06/a-peek-into-the-future-usd-jpy-road-to-300/).

On the other side, they are clearly causing damage in the global financial system equilibrium, and believe me once these losses surface you will understand what I am talking about.

To conclude, it is clear that the BOJ ultimately managed to break something in the financial system, now is yet to see the extent of the damage and rest assured the FED and Janet Yellen will not watch this unfolding sitting on the benches in particular when banks' stability is clearly at risk and the risk of an "avalanche" of selling ignited by derivatives positions exploding 1987 style trigger. There will be a rescue attempt at some point, although the more they kick the can down the road, the harder it is to keep this ginormous bubble inflated, in particular when central banks are virtually insolvent themselves (HOW CAN THE #FED BAILOUT BANKS WHEN THIS TIME IT NEEDS A BAILOUT ITSELF TO BEGIN WITH?). Will our heroes succeed in kicking the can down the road long enough for US elections to pass? I am looking forward to enjoying the show.

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https://justdario.com/2024/08/a-traveler-guide-to-navigate-the-bank-of-japan-mess/

What's going on with Sava?

GreasenUSA said:

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In the last 40 years, on average, the S&P 500 enters a 20% drawdown in the first 9 months after starting a rate cut cycle.

I suppose that means that the divergence could start to close, but you're going to see downward pressure on all indexes.

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Just reposting in case anyone missed what historically happens in a rate cut cycle.

LMCane said:

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Nealthedestroyer said:

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Is Intel a buy today? Surely it would recover long hold?

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And don't call me shirley

have you looked at a stock chart for Intel.

It was $73 dollars in 2003.

It's $23.17 today.

does that answer your question?

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You're obnoxious.

Some of us need it spelled out. Not me , but some of us do.


J/k, it's me.

Glad I went to lunch and had 3 pints...I see I'm still not wealthy.

SELL EVERYTHING

Nasdaq futures dropping as if it's the end of the world; memo to all: it isn't

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) August 2, 2024

Heineken-Ashi said:

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SELL EVERYTHING

Nasdaq futures dropping as if it's the end of the world; memo to all: it isn't

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) August 2, 2024

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