BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Question for HA or some of the other long time experts.

Clearly, everyone in America is trying to learn about bonds today lol. Inversion foretells the recession. Uninversion heralds recession onset. Does depth of inversion predict severity or does depth not matter as much?

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Howdy Doc!

How's your little wingman doing? I know he's doing great because if he was sick and you're an elite surgeon you couldn't say it, because we'd give you hell, lol.

Have you moved on to bonds and are through slumming with us plebs dabbling in stocks?

ProgN said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Question for HA or some of the other long time experts.

Clearly, everyone in America is trying to learn about bonds today lol. Inversion foretells the recession. Uninversion heralds recession onset. Does depth of inversion predict severity or does depth not matter as much?

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Howdy Doc!

How's your little wingman doing? I know he's doing great because if he was sick and you're an elite surgeon you couldn't say it, because we'd give you hell, lol.

Have you moved on to bonds and are through slumming with us plebs dabbling in stocks?

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Never. Moved my entire 401K to bonds in Nov '22. Would've been right but I failed to exit bond position after SIVB bailout. It looks like patience is paying tho. Guessing we will revisit those bond yields again within months!

Just trying to assess if indeed recession is upon us, how bad to expect it? My business partner and I negotiated a heck of a deal with our employer. Nearly 50% call pay raise right as the market seems to be turning!

The boy is good. Will share recent photo of our trip to Antigua. Took the whole family. Was lovely!

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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ProgN said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Question for HA or some of the other long time experts.

Clearly, everyone in America is trying to learn about bonds today lol. Inversion foretells the recession. Uninversion heralds recession onset. Does depth of inversion predict severity or does depth not matter as much?

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Howdy Doc!

How's your little wingman doing? I know he's doing great because if he was sick and you're an elite surgeon you couldn't say it, because we'd give you hell, lol.

Have you moved on to bonds and are through slumming with us plebs dabbling in stocks?

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. Nearly 50% call pay raise right as the market seems to be turning!

The boy is good. Will share recent photo of our trip to Antigua. Took the whole family. Was lovely!

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Quote:

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Nearly 50% call pay raise right as the market seems to be turning

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You were blessed with a beautiful family doc! It's good to see you brother.

Dan Scott said:

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According to Tom Lee who is bullish, the unemployment rate is overstated. He makes the point that Hurricane Beryl caused over a million people and business to be without power for a week in the month. Unemployment claims in Texas are up while rest of country is down. Also said there is a huge increased in weather being the response for unemployed in July. And all this gets corrected in the August report which would confirm if it's really that bad out there.

Interesting perspective.

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Yes, the weather in Houston made the entire market selloff. Had nothing to do with JPY reversing and global liquidity leaving to cover JPY carry trade shorts.

I'm sure the Nikkei (-5%), Hang Seng (-2%), KOSPI (-3.65%), Euronext 100 (-2.7%), and every other major world index being down on the same day while VIX was up 25% was because of US weather.

Tom Lee has made some good calls. But he's missing the forest on this one. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market make new highs. But it won't be because people realized they overfreaked over a jobs report and a hurricane. Today had nothing to do with retail. Who on this forum was selling stocks today? Wall Street Bets? Anyone? Retail has some cash on the side waiting to deploy. The last two days were a global liquidity event. And likely more than just twitchy algos. Global money moves in massive amounts day to day to fund liquidity. And when one of the main drivers reverses, it forces covering. The money to cover has to come from somewhere. Whether this downturn continues or not is TBD.

NFLX - Didn't play this one but should have. Another weekly ich cloud reversal playing out to perfection. Had a potential top in June, traced it down to a 21 week reversal to $597. Today got to $608, and still have through November for it to hit. And the one level lower target, though it seems unlikely, is still on the table $130 lower with 3 weeks to go and happens to line up with the 144 weekly EMA.



I've been playing with this strategy for a little over a month, and the success rate is wild. It works best on standard longs and shorts as even though you have a timing target, you don't have to deal with time decay when not doing options. And it works on any timeframe. But it only works on a candle that ends up marking a top or bottom in a pattern. If you get a continued move up or down, the cloud and lagging span line will adjust with it and could throw off the trade (especially if its a renewed trend against your reversal). But it's truly amazing how often price will pin to this target on any sort of high or low, even on very short timeframes.

It's also why I see patterns like this and straight up avoid trading. I love messing with FOREX, but the when lagging span of the ich cloud is literally sitting on the candles, there just shouldn't be any expectation of significant moves, even if you a high or low is struck in the pattern. You just have to wait for the next pattern to play out.

GaryClare said:

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Petrino1 said:

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hedge said:

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Would it be prudent of me to start throwing some money at VOO?

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The S&P is down over -6%. Now is about as good of time as any to buy.

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I respect the thought process of most of the posters here and I would enjoy reading everyone's perspective on what goes through my mind all the time ...

Here is my struggle with the thought that the S&P being down 6% today is a buying opportunity. The S&P 52 week low is 4,103. It's 5,335 now and the 52 week high is 5,669. How exactly is the business climate any different at any time between August 1st of 2023 and August 2024? How does one think we are in better shape economically now than we were a year ago when the S&P was 25% lower? In March of 2020 the S&P was 2,300 and the world was fine and not in an economic apocalypse. Why can't it go back to 2,300 just as easy as it went to 5,669?

A guy scrolls through the PE's of stock after stock and you just shake your head. No one would buy one of these companies if they were truly "buying a share of a business". Would anyone buy a business in their town that would take 27 years to get back your investment? Maybe you can "grow" it and double the net and get your money back in 13. And that's just the S&P "average". That's a tough way to invest money. Yet that's where we are when we get in the market now. You can see company after company that's not making real money, with no prospects for growth trading at 50 times. Lithia Auto had an increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit and they went up $13 a share yesterday. Increased revenue with lower profits would not appear to be a great economic indicator, as volume was actually a negative in this instance, yet the market seemed to love it. It sure appears as if we are in irrational times.

So ... It seems like a 6% decrease is really nothing compared to a 2,300 S&P that was probably overpriced then and the world was just fine. What am I missing?

I will hang up and listen!

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I'm going to suggest that you can no longer apply the same metrics to the market of today. I read Peter Lynch's, and Warren Buffett's books 3 decades ago, but times have changed. At that time there wasn't smartphones, instead I had a Motorola analog flip phone that their roaming charge rivaled 1-900 #s, You applying that metric to today's market is misguided. It has dramatically changed and the amount of money that flows into and out of the market daily is beyond comprehension. There are, and have been, high school kids trading stocks via Robinhood for awhile now. You can't apply the previous rational logic to today's market. You mentioned PE ratios that make sense. Here are 3 that should meet your criteria. I'm going to sleep, but we can discuss tomorrow if you wish.

Stocks:
POWL
SMCI
LRCX

Berkshire trimmed 50% of its Apple position

When you first start When you’re
trading finally profitable pic.twitter.com/2yXw572Y1Q

— Chris (@itsCblast) August 3, 2024

The FED doesn't do emergency cuts because of the stock market. They do it because of the bond market. We wouldn't see an emergency until the 10yr is below 3.25%. That's a full 2-3 years worth of cuts being priced in by bonds, likely signaling that bond investors are preparing for a significant if not imminent recession and deterioration in the economy. And most of the time, that just happens to coincide with money leaving equities for bonds.