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24,968,405 Views | 233746 Replies | Last: 18 min ago by I bleed maroon
Heineken-Ashi
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For those that followed the BLDE calls a month back. And even for those who bought shares based on my last update, here's a full update.



We have what could be a 5-waves down, but didn't make a new low in an extended (a)(b)(c) pattern. Looking back at recent terminal waves of corrections, RSI bottomed on the 55min chart (not shown) 3-7 days before the actual bottom occurred. Today was 3 days since the RSI bottom.

I think we make one more low between $2.75 and $3.00 sometime between Tuesday and Friday. That should mark the end of Wave ii in what's shaping up to be an ending diagonal C wave for the larger degree (A) top.

I've updated the target for the calls to land between the 161.8% of i from ii (gray extension $6.59) and the 161.8% C=A (orange extension $7.25). It of course could choose to extend to our original $10 target, but I would sell 75% of the calls before then and leave that for the runners unless it just takes off and never lets up. It might even be worth it to sell at the top of iii and look to re-strike at the bottom of iv. It would be painful to watch the calls go from ITM to OTM with only a couple months remaining and hoping on a diagonal 5th wave that might not come.

So hang in there. This correction should be over soon. We have support as far down as $2.45 for this setup, though it would not be ideal to get below $2.75. And remember, premium paid was the stop. Below $2.45 you could jump out, but I doubt your calls would be worth much. Shares would take a loss but still have something to salvage.

And here's the all time chart. The reason this play was enticing was because the structure that finished the selloff from the 2021 high finished as an ending diagonal (overlapping 5-wave structure). When ED's complete, the almost always reverse back to where they started from in around half the time (or 61.8% of the time) it took them to happen. The one that completed downward started Apr 2022 and ended Oct 2023, roughly 556 days. We are in day 206 of the reversal looking for August as our reversal upward top. Ending diagonal reversal trades are some of the most reliable you can find. It almost always happens. It can definitely not happen. But it's more rare that it fails than it succeeds.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Dan Scott
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Anybody follow PZZA?

It's been straight down this year about 40% YTD. The RSI is a 14.

DPZ is up 20% YTD. I haven't ordered pizza from the big 3 in a long time but always favored Pappa John to the others and ranked Dominos last.
McInnis 03
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Dan Scott said:

Anybody follow PZZA?

It's been straight down this year about 40% YTD. The RSI is a 14.

DPZ is up 20% YTD. I haven't ordered pizza from the big 3 in a long time but always favored Pappa John to the others and ranked Dominos last.


Bearish on every time frame. It'll reverse at some point but right now it is WWR ish
McInnis 03
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Dan Scott said:

Anybody follow PZZA?

It's been straight down this year about 40% YTD. The RSI is a 14.

DPZ is up 20% YTD. I haven't ordered pizza from the big 3 in a long time but always favored Pappa John to the others and ranked Dominos last.


Some support at 40-43 from 2018ish?
Charismatic Megafauna
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McInnis 03 said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

McInnis 03 said:

McInnis 03 said:

The activity on the GME 6/21 $20c is extraordinary. Has been for days.




F it, I'm in at 5




Holla!
Heineken-Ashi
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BTC - This is a triangle starting it's last leg. $48k - $52k downside target. Adjusting the next overhead target later this year or early next to $100k min and $135k in very extended move.




And once the triangle gets close to completing you'll see "it's flagging" all over twitter.

This is my base case as of now. But if it breaks to new highs next, I'll be forced to assume the correction is over and position myself accordingly.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
El_duderino
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POWL short interest jumped up to 20% and over 7 days to cover. It was sitting at 15% and 3.4 days to cover when I checked yesterday.
CC09LawAg
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For those of us that are dumb, does this mean the shorts are doubling down and we can expect downward pressure next week?
FishrCoAg
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CC09LawAg said:

For those of us that are dumb, does this mean the shorts are doubling down and we can expect downward pressure next week?


Maybe?? But they have to buy stock to cover at some point and that can lead to a sharp jump.
bigtoneag
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CC09LawAg said:

For those of us that are dumb, does this mean the shorts are doubling down and we can expect downward pressure next week?


The number of shares short is as of 5/15 (1.9 million) so they might have covered some since then. I think the shorts are lazy too and don't bother to read a balance sheet. I bet the short interest keeps growing.
Heineken-Ashi
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If XOM can hold $111 its a full buy with next target range $125-$135.

RSI and MACD look like they need a little lower on daily candles, but intraday is showing all the signs of a bottom in place or hitting very soon.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
El_duderino
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Any thoughts on TSLA? It's coiling for a move and the 8 has crossed the 21,34, & 55 to the upside on the daily. 21 has crossed the 34 as well. Seems as if it could push to $200 quickly should it break above $180
flashplayer
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POWL volume has been too low for me to believe there's been much of any rush in shorts exiting their positions. I also don't think they're in a hurry to get out now if you look at the chart and see the big gap down.
Heineken-Ashi
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El_duderino said:

Any thoughts on TSLA? It's coiling for a move and the 8 has crossed the 21,34, & 55 to the upside on the daily. 21 has crossed the 34 as well. Seems as if it could push to $200 quickly should it break above $180


It's definitely coiling. The thing hard to determine is if it's bullish move or merely an upward correction. Either way, I think $225 is coming.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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BRY - For those that followed a month or so back. $6.22 has to hold. If it gives, $4 or less opens as potential downside and it might not come fast. Even more so, the trendline from Nov 2020 to Feb 2024 holding the bullish count together is nearly touched. Below $6.75 and I can't fault you for manually stopping out and putting your money to better use elsewhere.

That said, it's very oversold on all indicators. Previous oversold levels have been followed by swing moves up of some fashion. So even if some support breaks, as long as $6.22 holds, you should be able to get out higher.

If it can hold, I'm still looking for $19 to $23 over the next 1-2 years. Would not likely come in one swift move up. Expect some large swings as it moves up.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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MRO - If it can hold $24.65, it might be a buy soon with a very bullish setup. It completed a potential triangle correction in January. The bullish action off of that broke above the triangle upper boundary downtrend line. So my base case is for sure bullish. Currently, it has retraced 50% of that move up off January - a model T as OA would call it. Upper targets are anywhere from $43 to $62 over the coming 1-2 years. Below $23.50 and I start to feel uneasy, and below $22 I likely take my losses and go into wait and see mode.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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AR - Strength on weekly candles, but approaching overbought if not there already. I don't see it getting past $40 if it can resume upward. Weakness on daily candles though indicating a full sell with lots of room to fall before indicators even come into balance. My base case says this comes down to $15 before finding ultimate support, though $20 will be major major support in a bearish scenario. I'd be very careful with this one. Much better charts out there.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Heineken-Ashi
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EOG looks good if $120 range can hold in the coming week. Target range is $200-$250. $150 will be major resistance for a big breakout.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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APA had a nice triangle, but the recent low in early May made it problematic. If it can take off soon, we can put it behind us, otherwise, my expectation is for $25 before the next bull run, and I could see a scenario where it even drops to $20 first. Both daily and weekly indicators seem to support some more downside in the near future.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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TALO is very oversold on daily but weekly shows a little more weakness can be possible. I'll give this one down to $9.75-$10 range for support. But I would ideally like to see it hold the previous low on daily candles. If it does come down to the $9.75-$10 range, my favorite clean outlook would have it hitting in August unfortunately. But from there, target would be $35-$45 or a 4-5x. So put it on the watchlist.



"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
txaggie_08
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It's a 45 minute video. Can you either give a summary or points to a certain minute?
Heineken-Ashi
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txaggie_08 said:

It's a 45 minute video. Can you either give a summary or points to a certain minute?
He has given many speeches on the floor attempting to educate the American people on our dire fiscal situation. Usually in front of a crowd of no one. It's worth the watch as he usually puts it very plainly.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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VLO - I think we bounce here. Whether this takes a more bullish path up or an ending diagonal choppy pattern, I see $220 as the potential top early to mid next year. I'd be surprised if see below $145, but its certainly not out of the question next couple of months.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
MRB10
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Worth the listen.
waryman
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Try it at 1.5 playback speed. Easily doable without losing the content.
Heineken-Ashi
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This is against every fiber of my being, but BUD is prepping for a move. Just about every technical method is aligning for a very bullish setup looking out 1-3 years.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
flashplayer
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Look at it more as making money off of trans Lady Ballers cheerleaders rather than giving it to them.
Bird Poo
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People are keeping their cars longer. Thinking about investing in car parts suppliers. Any recommendations?
Bocephus
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Bird Poo said:

People are keeping their cars longer. Thinking about investing in car parts suppliers. Any recommendations?


Auto zone killed it last recession of I remember correctly. Lowes and Home Depot hold up well too bc people fix up their houses rather than move
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
Ragoo
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Advanced auto is another
AgCPA95
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Bird Poo said:

People are keeping their cars longer. Thinking about investing in car parts suppliers. Any recommendations?


I have a small position in $AAP (Advance Auto Part) for the end use part of that idea.

Go to 34:38 of this with some insight

TheVarian
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Just get royal purple and change the filters/fluids.

Maybe put some additives into the fuel
El_duderino
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Very curious to see how this week plays out. Bearish engulfing on the daily chart and bearish doji on the weekly for SPY
Brian Earl Spilner
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Settlement period changes to 1 day tomorrow.
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