For those that followed the BLDE calls a month back. And even for those who bought shares based on my last update, here's a full update.
We have what could be a 5-waves down, but didn't make a new low in an extended (a)(b)(c) pattern. Looking back at recent terminal waves of corrections, RSI bottomed on the 55min chart (not shown) 3-7 days before the actual bottom occurred. Today was 3 days since the RSI bottom.
I think we make one more low between $2.75 and $3.00 sometime between Tuesday and Friday. That should mark the end of Wave ii in what's shaping up to be an ending diagonal C wave for the larger degree (A) top.
I've updated the target for the calls to land between the 161.8% of i from ii (gray extension $6.59) and the 161.8% C=A (orange extension $7.25). It of course could choose to extend to our original $10 target, but I would sell 75% of the calls before then and leave that for the runners unless it just takes off and never lets up. It might even be worth it to sell at the top of iii and look to re-strike at the bottom of iv. It would be painful to watch the calls go from ITM to OTM with only a couple months remaining and hoping on a diagonal 5th wave that might not come.
So hang in there. This correction should be over soon. We have support as far down as $2.45 for this setup, though it would not be ideal to get below $2.75. And remember, premium paid was the stop. Below $2.45 you could jump out, but I doubt your calls would be worth much. Shares would take a loss but still have something to salvage.
And here's the all time chart. The reason this play was enticing was because the structure that finished the selloff from the 2021 high finished as an ending diagonal (overlapping 5-wave structure). When ED's complete, the almost always reverse back to where they started from in around half the time (or 61.8% of the time) it took them to happen. The one that completed downward started Apr 2022 and ended Oct 2023, roughly 556 days. We are in day 206 of the reversal looking for August as our reversal upward top. Ending diagonal reversal trades are some of the most reliable you can find. It almost always happens. It can definitely not happen. But it's more rare that it fails than it succeeds.
We have what could be a 5-waves down, but didn't make a new low in an extended (a)(b)(c) pattern. Looking back at recent terminal waves of corrections, RSI bottomed on the 55min chart (not shown) 3-7 days before the actual bottom occurred. Today was 3 days since the RSI bottom.
I think we make one more low between $2.75 and $3.00 sometime between Tuesday and Friday. That should mark the end of Wave ii in what's shaping up to be an ending diagonal C wave for the larger degree (A) top.
I've updated the target for the calls to land between the 161.8% of i from ii (gray extension $6.59) and the 161.8% C=A (orange extension $7.25). It of course could choose to extend to our original $10 target, but I would sell 75% of the calls before then and leave that for the runners unless it just takes off and never lets up. It might even be worth it to sell at the top of iii and look to re-strike at the bottom of iv. It would be painful to watch the calls go from ITM to OTM with only a couple months remaining and hoping on a diagonal 5th wave that might not come.
So hang in there. This correction should be over soon. We have support as far down as $2.45 for this setup, though it would not be ideal to get below $2.75. And remember, premium paid was the stop. Below $2.45 you could jump out, but I doubt your calls would be worth much. Shares would take a loss but still have something to salvage.
And here's the all time chart. The reason this play was enticing was because the structure that finished the selloff from the 2021 high finished as an ending diagonal (overlapping 5-wave structure). When ED's complete, the almost always reverse back to where they started from in around half the time (or 61.8% of the time) it took them to happen. The one that completed downward started Apr 2022 and ended Oct 2023, roughly 556 days. We are in day 206 of the reversal looking for August as our reversal upward top. Ending diagonal reversal trades are some of the most reliable you can find. It almost always happens. It can definitely not happen. But it's more rare that it fails than it succeeds.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
