Coming off the last high in rates, we had a significant drop from 5.02% to 3.78% in the 10Y. Since then, it's moved up in choppy fashion. The chart off the 2020 bottom is not clean and very hard to decipher. This happens in many stages on many different instruments, especially in periods of sideways chop. Trying to identify channels and waves can be really really hard. When things get this cloudy, it's usually best to just avoid it until some clarity starts to present.Spoony Love said:
That's not a question. Learn us something.
Please.
While the long term chart is still unclear (I can make a case for this moving to 7%-10% just as easy as 2%-3%), the short term has become quite clear. Since I'm not one to pound the table anymore on definite targets, I like to run 2-3 charts simultaneously as long as all of them stay within the confines of the rules and make sense. And this one has 3 potentials that I'm watching, all focusing on the 2024 action since the last low.
1. The first is a topping pattern where the move down into the recent low was our A wave, the first of 3 waves in a correction. We are working on the top of the B wave "retrace" back up. Next up would be a drop below the last low, likely down to 3%-3.5% range for the C wave.
2. Nearly completed leading diagonal. A LD is a 5-wave move that tends to be more choppy and overlapping than a standard lightning bolt impulse. It usually moves in 3-wave patterns instead of 5-wave patterns, making it hard to track as every single move is "corrective" in nature. But they usually adhere to clear channels or trend lines. They are either contracting or expanding in most cases. I won't go over all of the rules. Type in leading diagonal in google and you can find many resources explaining them. But just know that no rules are broken here.
3. This option is a larger LD. And this is my preference as it's the cleanest chart. This says that we are topping in the 3rd wave with a swing down for the 4th on the horizon before the 5th wave tops at 5%.
The one thing I'm not tracking is a potential for very large spike up. I don't see it as imminent. But if it starts to look like that, I will have to start tracking it.
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- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)