You need one of these doc.

Although you're correct about better meat, imagine the **** storm I could create by taking out bevo (I refuse to capitalize anything affiliated with dildo u).

FishrCoAg said:

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spud1910 said:

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Come up to East Texas occasionally and make barrows for me. Then I will keep you in pork. Better than what Prog offered.

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I'll do the anesthesia, you're the surgeon!

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That sounds like a deal I can live with!! These are too big for a boot, just in case you can't tell from the pic.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Brewmaster said:

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Spoony Love said:

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Sounds like the FED needs to let go and let God.

Good grief folks: start growing your own food or know someone who does.

If you can get your hands on about 6-7 acres, you can grow just about anything you would eat. No need for a heard, just raise a steer at a time. Raise meat chickens and layers. Build garden and put food away. Put some fruit trees in the ground and wait (but prune to increase yield). Let a pig tear up ground for the gardens then process. All it costs is sweat and a few bucks.

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Amen brother. Is it wrong of me to look at north of Bryan and south of Hearne area as prime real estate for something like this? it is amazing how cheap it is up there, I know it's a dump, but wow. All of central TX will eventually get caught up (real estate prices).

Red Pear is actually helping us now, looking at a property not far from downtown Bryan. Definitely not a homestead type of property, but it's a big lot, could do plenty there.

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Red Pear sucks

I've helped someone buy property Hearne before. Granted, it was 12 years ago. But the house had a pipe burst and flood everything while under contract and I was able to navigate through that for the buyers.

Jamie is a beast, a good friend, business partner, and someone I have 100% trust and faith in. Both personally and professionally. You couldn't be in better hands. Luke is a close second.

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My reactions reading that I came in a first loser compared to Jamie + the whole raise a steer/bevo"

Bonfire.1996 said:

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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

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Bonfire.1996 said:

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flashplayer said:

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Fed is going to have to sink some banks and crank up the interest rate another 25-50 bp. The optimism that they will be able to sit on their hands and watch inflation slowly drop looks far fetched each time new numbers come out and with the eye test each month when we pay bills.

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As long as Fed funds at 5.3% is in excess of inflation, policy is technically restrictive. So they will be able to maintain the pause. A climbing 10 year and continued deposit drain at regional and small banks will cause failures due to simple math. That will lead rates back down.

Biden will be running on bank failures and restrictive FED policy.

Good luck.

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Proof is in the pudding and you can look at the deposit rates NYCB is offering as an example of what Bonfire is saying to perfection. Offering 5.55% yield on deposits just to keep cash on that bank's balance sheet is a symptom of the market forces working.

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Nailed it. Top of market rate offering on CDs? That's a signal that they have $0 to lose in liquidity. Let this be a lesson to everyone, what I hypothesized is coming true. You all know about NYCB and their near failure, and you see how they are protecting liquidity. Watch for this at other banks.

The jolt to the 10 year is absolutely terrible for banks already bad bond portfolios. But remember, these are only true losses when they have to be realized. And they will only have to be realized when liquidity drops to trip up certain capital ratios.

Unfortunately for banks, persistent inflation is causing everyone's deposit bases to wither away. That is the banks liquidity. When it withers to a certain point, they must generate liquidity through new deposits or selling off investments. Can't sell off investments at $0.70 on the dollar and raise meaningful liquidity without the domino effect of tripping capital ratios with that realized loss, so banks will offer top of market rates to generate deposits - just like NYCB is doing right now.

NYCB and Steve Mnuchin looked at the dot plot two months ago and said,"we just need a little liquidity before the Fed drops rates and solves our math problem for us." Oops.

Mega banks with ample liquidity will be the FDIC's go to for bargain basement priced regional bank mergers so their already insufficient FDIC fund doesn't need to get tapped.

Ride this wave down and buy these banks: JPM, FHN, CFR

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Part of NYCB's problem is a few:

1st - They decided to get a fat portfolio of Multifamily loans with majority of them brought to them by Meridian Capital Group. MCG is on Freddie Mac's shat-list for fraudulent lending including falsifying loan docs and operating statements to help juice loan proceeds and get more loan dollars then the property could naturally support. It's enough so that

2nd - NYCB decided to acquire the carcass and assets of Signature Bank last year. Signature Bank failed for a lot of reasons BUT Guess who also had a cozy relationship with Meridian Capital Group? That's right Signature Bank. So NYCB literally doubled down on the Meridian problem (hard to say if knowingly or unknowingly) on top of any of the existing troubled loans in the portfolio.

3rd - NYCB before the Signature Bank acquisition decided to acquire Flagstar mortgage and their entire portfolio of loans (primarily single family). This was seen as a smart move and should keep revenue humming but if we get the fed throwing the economy off a cliff and people end up losing a job, it's going to add to their financial strain.

Overall - I really have no idea why people like my pops (I'm sorry dad) or Karen Finerman or Steve Mnunchin or whomever else is deciding to think that NYCB is going to be some great turn around story. I think they are already the canary in the coal mine that was borderline failure until Steve Mnuchin stepped in with some liquidity fusion. I just don't see it coming out on top. Especially if there is continued trouble with multifamily and the operators start defaulting and they have to take back these MF properties.

Again this is all coming from an amateur who's farted around on ACRIS to see how many multifamily properties have loans with Signature Bank or NYCB. Most of those buildings are crap and owned by operators who refuse to put any money back into the properties.

Gonna get off my soap box now.

I'm turning very very bearish.

Here's HGX - PHLX Housing Sector Index - I think we have seen the top.

• 76.4% extension of (1)+(3) of [5] from (4) of [5] was hit - See short term chart
• 76.4% extension of [1]+[3] from [4] was nearly hit ($33 away) - See Long term chart
• The trendline connecting the 3rd waves (upper green line) was nearly hit at the high. Came $7 away.
• Not shown here, but the channel connecting (2) of [5] and (4) of [5] with upper parallel line at (3), had it's mid line exactly hit at the recent top. Stocks will travel either below or above the mid line within a channel, usually using that mid line as support or resistance. The final (5)th wave on the short term chart spent its entire life under this mid line (again, not shown because it really crowded the chart) finally touching it at the recent high.
• MACD has turned down on weekly. It's fresh, but would be rare if it turned back up. Daily MACD is turning down hard.
• 261.8% extension on long term chart came $19 away from being hit. The 200% extension is the standard target for a 5th wave, with 261.8% being the next most likely usually after a 3rd or 5th wave get some extensions. In this case it was the long term 5th wave that got extended.

If that wasn't the top, there can't be more than one swing left. If it was the top, I think we're about to see a massive shift in housing, and therefore, the economy. Maybe time to buckle up. This is not the only stock or index that is showing danger warnings.

TALO - Adding this one to energy list.

Stop $13.70, so low risk here. Buy under $15. Still valid under $17.50 but your multiple decreases. Target range is $30-$42 and I'm strongly leaning toward the higher end.

Brewmaster said:

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Ragoo said:

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SPX is on the brink. Break here and could see 5100 quickly.

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yeah domed and doomed look, including the premarket run up. This dam is about to break.

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OJ Simpson is dead

ProgN said:

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OJ Simpson is dead

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It's a shame he was never able to find the real killer.

AgCPA95 said:

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ProgN said:

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OJ Simpson is dead

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It's a shame he was never able to find the real killer.

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Only one man knows... Judgement day for ole OJ.

OJ futures are tanking today...coincidence? I think not...

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Ragoo said:

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SPX is on the brink. Break here and could see 5100 quickly.

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Whoops...

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whoops what? The rebound isn't a bull case.

mega caps seem to be holding it together...they are ripping while RSP is negative...Q's outperforming...many of mag7 seem to be hitting all time highs or very close...so will be interesting to see what those do on a greater market pullback...they seem to be the safe haven and carrying this flailing market, in my opinion...

EnronAg said:

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mega caps seem to be holding it together...they are ripping while RSP is negative...Q's outperforming...many of mag7 seem to be hitting all time highs or very close...so will be interesting to see what those do on a greater market pullback...they seem to be the safe haven and carrying this flailing market, in my opinion...

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Long funds and MM are using the Mag 7 to defend a negative cross of RSI on SPX because they are heavily weighted. Hard cross below 50 could trigger sell programs

EnronAg said:

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mega caps seem to be holding it together...they are ripping while RSP is negative...Q's outperforming...many of mag7 seem to be hitting all time highs or very close...so will be interesting to see what those do on a greater market pullback...they seem to be the safe haven and carrying this flailing market, in my opinion...

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heavy NVDA call buying, even now. definitely propping it up

and a Santelli C- bond auction score sends the market racing