Brian Earl Spilner said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
LMCane said:
please explain what you think comes next for NVDIA
could it not breakout from the channel and move to ATH?
I mean theoretically based on charting, not on what is likely.
The chart is a relationship. NVDA valued in Gold. Gold has just started to break out in a bull market and NVDA has seen the bulk of its big move and is in the chop around phase which could melt higher, but could also retrace pretty hard. I think any of these things can happen for the rest of the year..
A. NVDA drops while Gold rises.
B. They both drop with NVDA dropping harder.
C. They both rise with Gold rallying much harder.
But why gold? Not sure how the price of gold correlates to NVDA in any meaningful way?
Because it's not the dollar and is the most widely accepted, long-running, historical store of value.
Here's the SPX valued in Gold, and a more clear look at where we are long term. Clear bottoming in 1980 not long after we left the gold standard. Make sense why we left it now? Everything was deflating against the currency we were tied to in a massive inflationary time period. So let's move to made up money that we can continuously devalue while deficit spending our way into a multi-decade growth cycle. That way inflation will make things go UP, not down.
Valued in Gold, SPX is currently 17x off the 1980 bottom, currently valued at around 2.2 per US$ per ounce of gold, and falling. It's highest point in 2000 was 42x and 5.59. We know how that turned out. We came all the way back to SPX being valued at 0.59.
With Gold moving up, the SPX could theoretically be coming back like it always does toward that lower boundary. That's where economic cycle swing downs get near. A 100% extension of the move from 1999-2011 move down of SPX relative to gold would place SPX at 0.29. At today's gold prices, that's SPX 678.
But we're still living in a modern monetary, Keynesian, deficit spending, and inflationary economy. Even if we have a massive correction, I don't see us changing.. just entering into the next debt leveraged rally. So I really just don't see that happening. But I can see it reaching a 0.5-1.0 level in a deflationary economic down cycle. And with Gold looking like its headed to 2,500-3000, a 1:1 ratio SPX to gold would be.. SPX 2500-3000.
Even at current gold prices and SPX reaching the lower Keltner band, we're talking SPX at 1.5 which puts it at 3450.
Of course, all of this is theorized. Anything can happen. But can you sit there and tell me with a straight face that gold isn't at all relevant while constantly predicting a debt fueled, currency debased stock market to reach continually higher levels in the face of the economic turmoil that is starting to finally become reality? This chart shows the SPX valued historically against the longest running store of value THAT USED TO BE OUR ECONOMIC STANDARD UNTIL WE LEFT IT AND STARTED DESTROYING OUR CURRENCY.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
