that little uptrend broke, more downside coming. retest SPY 406 at least

Golf1 said:

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$404.87 is where I'm looking. It would be the .786 line on the fib using march 13 lows and yesterdays highs.

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402.20's is an interesting spot too, lots of resistance and support there the last couple months.

ROKU back in the $61s. Decided to get 65c about a month out. Seems this thing is just constantly jumping in the $60-66 range

perma Brew doomster said:

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Golf1 said:

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$404.87 is where I'm looking. It would be the .786 line on the fib using march 13 lows and yesterdays highs.

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402.20's is an interesting spot too, lots of resistance and support there the last couple months.

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That's what I was eyeing, though I was overly aggressive thinking it could happen today.

Probably need to be looking at the entire 406-407 area as a box, if you go out to the 1-hour for last 3 months.

Now down 17%

JobSecurity said:

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Any recommendations on trade journal/tracking software?

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I saw something called TraderSync so I downloaded it 2 days ago and it seems pretty good.

I need that. Does it cost anything?

HoustonAg_2009 said:

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Recent purchaser of WAL --- It's down 10% pre-market so the market didnt take this news positively. Time to buy up more?

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Its pumping back hard. Glad I scooped up some PACW on the sympathy nose dive.

It looks like there's a free version and you can import the trades on a desktop. There is a version you can pay that can be done on mobile I believe. I haven't looked at it long though so I'm not sure.

Only an hour or so until the closing rocketship.

topher06 said:

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Only an hour or so until the closing rocketship.

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I'd prefer a little collapse first, so I can get rid of some of my runner puts from this morning.

Looks like you're gonna win this one!

Bonfire1996 said:

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CRE exposure is a real threat due to debt repricing that is happening daily. Making matters worse is because there was no decoupling of risk in 2008 - in other words since no one was punished, no reason to take less risk - the CRE lenders began doing 30 year amortizations. That's a major problem as there is no room for property devaluation.

Yet another reason to find a small, community bank with a low loan to deposit ratio, low Investment CRE exposure, and a small bond portfolio.

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How do we find these? I know the unrealized loss trick and can find those numbers.

wanderer said:

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wanderer said:

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This just hit model-T at 14.80. June 15c going for 70-75cents. (not a ton of volume, but has decent OI at 5k)

OA this still a decent play with macros starting to waffle?

If there was endless hours to find gap fill stocks we'd make even more. $CNHI perfectly flash filled the gap and made its initial move higher. Reached Model T and the MACD signal lines have crossed into bullish reversal. Placed an alert at $14.80 and if we get it I'll action pic.twitter.com/USw75L34eu

— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) March 31, 2023

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Hasn't aged well

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It must be the 9.2 PE Ratio or the $1.49 EPS
It was actually the news of a $600M debt offering. Successful too. I bought shares, not being in a hurry with a down market.

SPY resisting up and through 407.70 as FJ noted....and now finally pushes up as I write

Went long on $ZOM @ .1975

Added more of that one special stock, it's getting in that range. This time it's in a taxable account!

Most of the technicals show more upside available. We came back down to Model T of this beautiful trading channel. We have room to the downside without breaking it and I'd be aggressive if it comes to touch the lower line.

Another $SPX view. That MACD signal I pointed out before the explosion last week produced a massive move. It also kept the current trend channel intact, igniting just after touching the lower level. Average trend moves have been 20.4 days for each MACD cross. We are at day 12 . pic.twitter.com/v9TLiaA6rg

— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) April 5, 2023

perma Brew doomster said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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CRE exposure is a real threat due to debt repricing that is happening daily. Making matters worse is because there was no decoupling of risk in 2008 - in other words since no one was punished, no reason to take less risk - the CRE lenders began doing 30 year amortizations. That's a major problem as there is no room for property devaluation.

Yet another reason to find a small, community bank with a low loan to deposit ratio, low Investment CRE exposure, and a small bond portfolio.

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How do we find these? I know the unrealized loss trick and can find those numbers.

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Go into the bank and talk to President. He should know those numbers exactly and they should be top of mind.

oldarmy1 said:

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Most of the technicals show more upside available. We came back down to Model T of this beautiful trading channel. We have room to the downside without breaking it and I'd be aggressive if it comes to touch the lower line.

Another $SPX view. That MACD signal I pointed out before the explosion last week produced a massive move. It also kept the current trend channel intact, igniting just after touching the lower level. Average trend moves have been 20.4 days for each MACD cross. We are at day 12 . pic.twitter.com/v9TLiaA6rg

— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) April 5, 2023

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The volume profile on these last two sessions has been fairly modest as well. Would expect more robust selling if this were the impulsive move, no?

Good point. Day 3 is generally your "tell" if a sell off since meandering near highs.

oldarmy1 said:

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Good point. Day 3 is generally your "tell" if a sell off since meandering near highs.

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Yes and I'll readily admit that Elliott wave counts must be continually proven or invalidated, but if there is indeed another leg up here, it must not break above the early Feb high near the 4180-4200 area. If so, would invalidate a number of counts. There was quite a bit of buying exhaustion at the 4120-4140 range anyway.

Wave 2 must not retrace more than 100% of wave 1, etc.

oldarmy1 said:

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Most of the technicals show more upside available. We came back down to Model T of this beautiful trading channel. We have room to the downside without breaking it and I'd be aggressive if it comes to touch the lower line.

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When you say Model T, are you referring to the midpoint of the channel as opposed to the typical Model T (50% retracement of high/low)? If so, I haven't heard you refer to the Model T of a channel before.

FJ43 said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Please predict tomorrow now!

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Red. Possible red to green. Watch 407.86.

I got a 50/50 shot right?

Edit: I may be wrong but I think we consolidate first between 398-407 if we will continue up.

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Yup

Golf1 said:

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FJ43 said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Please predict tomorrow now!

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Red. Possible red to green. Watch 407.86.

I got a 50/50 shot right?

Edit: I may be wrong but I think we consolidate first between 398-407 if we will continue up.

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Soooo red to green??

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Red. R to G was possibility but my level of 407.86 was lost.

Correct, the channel. We would have to touch the lower line of the channel. Would love that!

topher06 said:

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Okay, what are we looking at tomorrow FJ. Prefer an exact closing number if possible, but will be generally okay with a correct prediction of the red v green at open, midday and close.

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You're killing me brother.

If you look back at charts I posted you'll see the gold line at 407.86 drawn in. Here is what happened trying to recover that today on a 5 min chart. I'm not that good…. but it was to the penny rejection.



This is where I sit on hands to watch direction and be patient. Upside…..sure. Watch 408.70 now for volume to break that. Downside …sure. Watch 405.60 to breakdown then 404.55.

Wish I could be more exact…..

Fade me….I'm a redneck and not that good.

What I 'want' to see is 402.80 then 400….ish to go long for at least a bounce.

Serious question for the board….

US Dollar. Where are we headed…….?