FJ43 said:
Serious question for the board….
US Dollar. Where are we headed…….?
No idea but if it's gonna bounce, it needs to do it soon. Hovering at one year lows. Good support here.
The debt ceiling thing will tell the rest of the story I think.
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No idea but if it's gonna bounce, it needs to do it soon. Hovering at one year lows. Good support here.
The debt ceiling thing will tell the rest of the story I think.
FJ43 said:
Serious question for the board….
US Dollar. Where are we headed…….?
Bounced off support today, but massive head and shoulder on the weekly. The relationship with SPX has diminished the last few weeks.FJ43 said:
Serious question for the board….
US Dollar. Where are we headed…….?
I don't chart the dollar but dang thats an ugly chart.lobwedgephil said:Bounced off support today, but massive head and shoulder on the weekly. The relationship with SPX has diminished the last few weeks.FJ43 said:
Serious question for the board….
US Dollar. Where are we headed…….?
Around 15 min on this video, he dedicates a short bit to the DXY. I agree it looks bearish, but he's calling it a bullish falling wedge in the daily timeframe and is calling for a breakout and saying the downward pattern is an abc corrective pattern. Lines on a chart lol.
Thanks. I'll give it a watch.
Thank you sir!
I'm also hunting them first via call reports...
I know about RI-A and looking up unrealized losses vs equity.
Am I right to look at these as well:
RC-C seems to have total loans $ out there and RC-E has total deposits I can also see commercial loans $ amount on RC-C.
I'm also hunting them first via call reports...
I know about RI-A and looking up unrealized losses vs equity.
Am I right to look at these as well:
RC-C seems to have total loans $ out there and RC-E has total deposits I can also see commercial loans $ amount on RC-C.
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Around 15 min on this video, he dedicates a short bit to the DXY. I agree it looks bearish, but he's calling it a bullish falling wedge in the daily timeframe and is calling for a breakout and saying the downward pattern is an abc corrective pattern. Lines on a chart lol.
Is there really anything else that points to bullish movement outside of the news, which just doubles down his point.
Has Pelosi bought puts yet?
FTAG 2000 said:
I see a H&S forming on SPY (weekly view, going back to November).
Ascending triangle on the monthly as well.
Go back to May and report back. They can both work, or one gets invalidated.FTAG 2000 said:
I see a H&S forming on SPY (weekly view, going back to November).
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I say watch crude oil.FJ43 said:
Serious question for the board….
US Dollar. Where are we headed…….?
If you think crude is going higher, dollar should go lower.
If you think crude is going lower, dollar should go higher.
I'm in the higher crude oil camp....dollar going down.
Have to take a hiatus.(I'll come back to post an old bookmarked post update like I said I would) This week lost a wheat crop due to Hessian Fly. Got a boundary line dispute. Have a negotiation on a property sale stalling out. But,....I took delivery on those 2 bottles of Blanton's I was telling y'all about earlier. Got a bottle of Pappy 10 Year arriving in December. My conceal/carry is good for another 5 years. Probably the last day of nasty winter 24 degrees with a -3 wind chill.....and 60 degrees to arrive on Easter Sunday. So, not all bad. XOM, what can I say. That horse is gonna run. This Q1 I was certain that XOM would not beat 22Q1, but now I am not certain anymore. Right now, how XOM plays the tax rate will be a key driver. In 22Q1 they used 40%. If they use 40% again, probably will not beat 22Q1, otherwise they'll deliver a beat. Folks, XOM 23Q2, 23Q3 and 23Q4 will be glorious. XOM will bust $120 PPS. Chances are very high XOM ends this year at $140, maybe to $150 PPS. 23Q2 if off to a torrid pace of printing money and I don't see it letting up....at all. FCF is incredible. Should Saudi control Brent at $85 per barrel for the rest of the year like they said they would XOM will burn rubber from start to finish. The year of the crack spread. Refiners. $10 per gallon gasoline, give it to me. Give it hell boys, it's your only chance on earth. Later. GLTA!
Another chart worth watching is GOLD. Showed what looks like an exhaustion gap and trap. Right at major resistance.
MIT has completed the cup and handle formation, and the whole world has reiterated calls for $2200/oz. I call BS. I highly suspect they are u loading their position. Bearish abandoned baby today on pretty decent volume.
Will have to watch for follow through, but even gold gets hammered in a recession. But there are nice gaps in that chart down to $16 at least.
MIT has completed the cup and handle formation, and the whole world has reiterated calls for $2200/oz. I call BS. I highly suspect they are u loading their position. Bearish abandoned baby today on pretty decent volume.
Will have to watch for follow through, but even gold gets hammered in a recession. But there are nice gaps in that chart down to $16 at least.
FJ43 said:
Serious question for the board….
US Dollar. Where are we headed…….?
FJ, I wrote a long post in response to you about the dollar. My mobile browser did the refresh randomly thing and wiped it. So now you get the I don't care enough to rewrite it version.
Daily beer candles - indecision following downtrend that was approaching support. Possible flip to uptrend. Too soon to feel confident.
Weekly beer candles - solid yet weak downtrend approaching support.
I could see it going either way. Maybe slight up then down. I wouldn't be trading it until it decides. Because it could easily chop around for a year as well.
Screw it. This is important
?The dollar has never been where it is today. That's not an understatement. While the dollar has always faced the constant threat of Keynesian manipulated devaluation
it's never faced the actual real world application of a potential mass loss of faith. Doesn't matter that the only relevant competitors are worse. When your argument is "I'm the tallest midget", you've entered the period where you aren't convincing anyone on your own merits any longer. When faith in the dollar is lost, even a little, global unrest is likely to follow. Because that means predators smell blood in the water and are circling. Whether they can win or not doesn't matter. They see a chance to make the champ sweat. There's going to be a fight. If you ask me, we are on the path of war and just haven't realized it as a people yet. Hope I'm wrong. On the flip side.. if FED stays true and doesn't drop rates (no chance), yes economy crashes and assets reset to reasonable levels crushing middle class in the process. But dollar regains strength and is now positioned far above any potential competition. America goes through turmoil and then comes out as stronger than before. We rebuild on the strong dollar and throw our weight around like never before.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Oh, and FJ,
Your dog drove by me today.
Your dog drove by me today.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Red to green today? Maybe a green hammer here?
Very very interesting day today. Will the dip get bought again?
400 feels like a magnet again (not today, but over the next few sessions) It also happens to be tbe 21 day EMA
400 feels like a magnet again (not today, but over the next few sessions) It also happens to be tbe 21 day EMA
405.80 level is being defended aggressively. May be weakening here….
Now 8 about to cross 21 SMA on 1 min frame. Level defended for now it appears….
I'm long with a tight stop loss and will look to be out by 407.19 if it gets there.
I'm long with a tight stop loss and will look to be out by 407.19 if it gets there.
Also, FWIW, SKEW is down slightly from yesterday and still
below where it with banking selloff last month.
below where it with banking selloff last month.
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oldarmy1 said:
Most of the technicals show more upside available. We came back down to Model T of this beautiful trading channel. We have room to the downside without breaking it and I'd be aggressive if it comes to touch the lower line.Another $SPX view. That MACD signal I pointed out before the explosion last week produced a massive move. It also kept the current trend channel intact, igniting just after touching the lower level. Average trend moves have been 20.4 days for each MACD cross. We are at day 12 . pic.twitter.com/v9TLiaA6rg
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) April 5, 2023
Was that the touch? Let's do this!
Rookie mistake not realizing market is closed tomorrow. Thought I was buying Friday expiry all friggin week
FJ43 said:You're killing me brother.topher06 said:
Okay, what are we looking at tomorrow FJ. Prefer an exact closing number if possible, but will be generally okay with a correct prediction of the red v green at open, midday and close.
If you look back at charts I posted you'll see the gold line at 407.86 drawn in. Here is what happened trying to recover that today on a 5 min chart. I'm not that good…. but it was to the penny rejection.
This is where I sit on hands to watch direction and be patient. Upside…..sure. Watch 408.70 now for volume to break that. Downside …sure. Watch 405.60 to breakdown then 404.55.
Wish I could be more exact…..
Fade me….I'm a redneck and not that good.
1st downside target achieved. 405.68. Close enough 8 cents off for the low so far. Let's see if todays low holds.
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Red to green today? Maybe a green hammer here?
On upside watch 407.86 for rejection should we get there.
May look for another countertrend long around 406.55.
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oldarmy1 said:
GOOG expiring premiums are about the lowest leverage risk I see in the market, as a potential mover. The $107's when tweeting this were $0.20 now $0.27
Followed you on 107s then added 106s...net free on the 107s now
C&H pattern intraday. Will fill above the 407.20 range. Measured move to around 808.60.
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BaylorSpineGuy said:
Measured move to around 808.60.
Yachts and lambos baby!
Looks like failed breakout maybe….
Super tight range today. Not much explosive moves in tight range. Perhaps better to wait for a support to break or defend. Kind of in no man's land right now.
Premium burn today. Super choppy and in a tight range. Made a hundred bucks early. Haven't found a good entry since. I didn't short at 407.20 and likely was the only good entry after buying long around 405.80.
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Charismatic Megafauna said:oldarmy1 said:
GOOG expiring premiums are about the lowest leverage risk I see in the market, as a potential mover. The $107's when tweeting this were $0.20 now $0.27
Followed you on 107s then added 106s...net free on the 107s now
Jeez alright I'm out. Cleared for takeoff!
Here's a good, quick read on some USD insights (albeit more long-term):FJ43 said:
Serious question for the board….
US Dollar. Where are we headed…….?
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/will-us-dollar-be-dethroned
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One xsp runner left. Zero or hero. Not touching it until spy 412.7
May puts may not be a horrible idea. Feels like we are range bound between 3850 and 4150
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
WAL up 5% to nearly 31.00 today after getting crushed yesterday. Should continue higher to fill gaps from 3/27 and yesterday.
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