Stock Markets

26,278,464 Views | 236280 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Heineken-Ashi
JamesBREI06
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txaggie_08 said:

Only problem with employers raising salaries is it doesn't help inflation. Most people need to figure out how to reduce discretionary spending and deal without through some tough times.


That was my point of only spending on rent.
Heineken-Ashi
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That, and the last time we had significant inflation, we didn't enter from a point of crushing debt and over 100% of debt to GDP. You (government and central bank partnership) can't expect the populace to suddenly learn how to live within their means and pull back from a lavish lifestyle if you yourself haven't been an exampleq of what that looks like.

And it's a lifestyle that you created by conditioning them to constantly max leverage debt. And every time you had a chance to let the free market teach some hard lessons and condition new behavior, you bailed them out and gave them another hit.


"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
txaggie_08
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Yeah, just don't see that happening. People don't have the restraint and self control to save. I'd imagine most people still make enough money to pay rents as long as they live within their means and stop spending on discretionary items.
JamesBREI06
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txaggie_08 said:

Yeah, just don't see that happening. People don't have the restraint and self control to save. I'd imagine most people still make enough money to pay rents as long as they live within their means and stop spending on discretionary items.


Completely agree. It ain't happening
Charismatic Megafauna
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Sooo...is it too early for one of those Heinekens?
BaylorSpineGuy
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txaggie_08 said:

Yeah, just don't see that happening. People don't have the restraint and self control to save. I'd imagine most people still make enough money to pay rents as long as they live within their means and stop spending on discretionary items.


**nods in agreement while eating gold-dusted, chocolate coated apple**
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
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Continuing on the CRE Theme and Multifamily. You have a cap cost escrow analysis typically done every 6 months. So you as the borrower are paying for the renewal cap strike as you make the monthly payment every month.

Before interest rates started pushing SOFR up you might expect $12K a month in cap strike escrow costs. But with rates now, that same borrower may be facing a $400K cap cost escrow for their loan.

So a MF property may be generating enough income to provide a debt coverage ratio (excluding the cap strike) of 1.5x. But then you factor the increased cap strike costs into the and it pulls that DSCR to 0.9x which means your borrower is paying out of pocket to cover their obligation.

How long can someone do that?
reineraggie09
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txaggie_08 said:

Yeah, just don't see that happening. People don't have the restraint and self control to save. I'd imagine most people still make enough money to pay rents as long as they live within their means and stop spending on discretionary items.


The rub is what is discretionary? I hear people talk about the "need" for vacation, new car, going out to eat. I don't think people can define discretionary within their own budget.
HoustonAg_2009
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Recent purchaser of WAL --- It's down 10% pre-market so the market didnt take this news positively. Time to buy up more?
JobSecurity
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Any recommendations on trade journal/tracking software?
FTAG 2000
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reineraggie09 said:

txaggie_08 said:

Yeah, just don't see that happening. People don't have the restraint and self control to save. I'd imagine most people still make enough money to pay rents as long as they live within their means and stop spending on discretionary items.


. I don't think people can define discretionary within their own budget.
My wife's Amazon purchases sure can't.
BaylorSpineGuy
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I closed my puts and went long with 409C expiring tomorrow. Will close at 409.70 (model T from yesterday hi-lo).
oldarmy1
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GOOG expiring premiums are about the lowest leverage risk I see in the market, as a potential mover. The $107's when tweeting this were $0.20 now $0.27
oldarmy1
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

I closed my puts and went long with 409C expiring tomorrow. Will close at 409.70 (model T from yesterday hi-lo).
I think this is the correct early trade, just be gone into Model T on 75% and 15% on any flash above with 10% trailing stop. 4105 is set up as strong resistance last 3 days. Flash to 4110 would be ideal. Anything above that and the bulls have trapped the world.
BaylorSpineGuy
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oldarmy1 said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

I closed my puts and went long with 409C expiring tomorrow. Will close at 409.70 (model T from yesterday hi-lo).
I think this is the correct early trade, just be gone into Model T on 75% and 15% on any flash above with 10% trailing stop. 4105 is set up as strong resistance last 3 days. Flash to 4110 would be ideal. Anything above that and the bulls have trapped the world.


Not sure if that was a stop loss raid or what, but I got bagged with that tall candle.
oldarmy1
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

oldarmy1 said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

I closed my puts and went long with 409C expiring tomorrow. Will close at 409.70 (model T from yesterday hi-lo).
I think this is the correct early trade, just be gone into Model T on 75% and 15% on any flash above with 10% trailing stop. 4105 is set up as strong resistance last 3 days. Flash to 4110 would be ideal. Anything above that and the bulls have trapped the world.


Not sure if that was a stop loss raid or what, but I got bagged with that tall candle.
SPY has held $407.80 all morning. I want to see that get broken with continuation. It could be coming now.
oldarmy1
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Stopped out of everything upside.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Looks like another H pattern.
irish pete ag06
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Will SOX bounce off the 50 this time?

I have been DCA'ing into SOXS and am currently up 12%... Target 1 is the 50 where I plan to take off half.
Bonfire1996
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HoustonAg_2009 said:

Recent purchaser of WAL --- It's down 10% pre-market so the market didnt take this news positively. Time to buy up more?
No idea. Their call report and earnings data will be key.
Golf1
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Need to break yesterdays lows
topher06
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Exited SPY puts, be prepared for a rug pull.
Boy Named Sue
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Here we go... (?)
BaylorSpineGuy
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I made almost $700, my best day in a while. I'm out for now and going to kids school for some events. Will try to dial in later.

Gotta climb the mountain I fell from in January. Today was a good start.
Golf1
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I exited my puts on that drop at $406.64 but wanted to see if we could retest $407 area
Philip J Fry
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DNN at $1. Usually a pretty good place to enter.
wanderer
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wanderer said:

This just hit model-T at 14.80. June 15c going for 70-75cents. (not a ton of volume, but has decent OI at 5k)

OA this still a decent play with macros starting to waffle?


Hasn't aged well
Chef Elko
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Philip J Fry said:

DNN at $1. Usually a pretty good place to enter.
Had some of my orders filled, loading back up.
wanderer
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This just triggered a few minutes ago.
Boy Named Sue
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Still in mine. May trim here but 402 today wouldn't shock me
irish pete ag06
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

I made almost $700, my best day in a while. I'm out for now and going to kids school for some events. Will try to dial in later.

Gotta climb the mountain I fell from in January. Today was a good start.
Big wins, small wins, small losses. That's how we do it!
Golf1
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Golf1 said:

I exited my puts on that drop at $406.64 but wanted to see if we could retest $407 area


Big rock fall hard.
irish pete ag06
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I had been DCA'ing into FUBO expecting a jump due to the sports seasons starting, but just unloaded that for a 7% loss.



I'm going to at least wait for the 30K algo to cross before I re-enter.
Boy Named Sue
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That 407 level has been key, going back to January. If they don't bust it here look out below
Golf1
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$404.87 is where I'm looking. It would be the .786 line on the fib using march 13 lows and yesterdays highs.
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