Peter Schilling? He's a f'ing dumb ass.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Yes, that's absolutely correct - like overnight. I have buying some 10yr notes because the rates are going back to 0, it's just a matter of time. I just hope it happens before the S&P bottom so I can dump the treasuries for a decent gain and then take advantage of the long position in the S&P.Quote:
The 20 year will absolutely rip the second the pivot occurs.
No, Gary Schilling. Do you think he is a dumb ass? I have always thought his Insight publication is pretty spot-on. Again, some think he is a perma-bear, and you have to filter his arguments, but he is pretty spot on with most of the stuff he says/publishes.Quote:
Peter Schilling? He's a f'ing dumb ass.
Yeah, I agree with you 30K. Like I was saying, I moderate what he says. He does have alot of good charts and facts in his Insight report. I use that to make my own decisions. I do agree with you that he beats the bear drum consistently. I'll check out Tom Lee.Quote:
I think it's dangerous to give a lot of credence to perma bears because their sound logic is intoxicating but what they think should logically happen doesn't (like our friend SF). You can follow these guys off the cliff.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
No, he's not dumb, but I view people like this as being broken clocks. If you're always bearish you'll be right sometimes.
I think it's dangerous to give a lot of credence to perma bears because their sound logic is intoxicating but what they think should logically happen doesn't (like our friend SF). You can follow these guys off the cliff.
Over a 10 year time horizon I'd rather follow Tom Lee than Sven even though Tom Lee needs a punch in the face for being irrationally exuberant.
SF2004 said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
No, he's not dumb, but I view people like this as being broken clocks. If you're always bearish you'll be right sometimes.
I think it's dangerous to give a lot of credence to perma bears because their sound logic is intoxicating but what they think should logically happen doesn't (like our friend SF). You can follow these guys off the cliff.
Over a 10 year time horizon I'd rather follow Tom Lee than Sven even though Tom Lee needs a punch in the face for being irrationally exuberant.
I like how you think I'm a perma bear.
What I have noticed is most on this thread only pay attention to whatever indicators are bullish. Which is fine because if you have anything other than a long term bullish strategy then you will be wrong.
Ignore overbought RSI for trend cause stocks only go up. Ignore ****ty earnings, cpi, fundamentals, because it is oversold.
I started following this thread to see if it was possible to get consistent higher returns than the market. Is the juice worth the squeeze?
The first skeptics of Madoff started looking deeper because he was saying he would get 12-15% returns. Which they all said was impossible.
ProgN said:
Keep $U on your radar. Upper 20's has been strong support and if you go back about 3-4 months in their newsfeed, the rejected an unsolicited buyout offer of around $55-57/shr so they must thought that offer was well below what they believe their business is worth.
$30,000 Millionaire said:ProgN said:
Keep $U on your radar. Upper 20's has been strong support and if you go back about 3-4 months in their newsfeed, the rejected an unsolicited buyout offer of around $55-57/shr so they must thought that offer was well below what they believe their business is worth.
Video game tech is so fickle. Only thing that gives me pause.
Jim Cramer has said he sees bullish signs emerging in the stock market.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 21, 2023
ACCORDING TO A GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL, THE NETHERLANDS PLANS TO CLOSE EUROPE'S LARGEST GASFIELD THIS YEAR BECAUSE IT IS VERY DANGEROUS TO KEEP IT OPERATIONAL - FT.
— Breaking Market News (@financialjuice) January 22, 2023
Don't trade in things you don't know. Unlike equities, to trade commodities or any resulting index, you need to understand the market and physical flow of goods.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Cool. Wasn't entirely sure what that meant as far as supply/demand.
I guess I'm not super clear on why Freeport opening up is the catalyst everyone's waiting for, since that would increase supply.
But, the cold weather coming in the upcoming weeks/months is sure to help.
Buck Compton said:Don't trade in things you don't know. Unlike equities, to trade commodities or any resulting index, you need to understand the market and physical flow of goods.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Cool. Wasn't entirely sure what that meant as far as supply/demand.
I guess I'm not super clear on why Freeport opening up is the catalyst everyone's waiting for, since that would increase supply.
But, the cold weather coming in the upcoming weeks/months is sure to help.
Freeport is a LNG liquefaction and export terminal. While Freeport is down, LNG that would sell for more abroad can't be exported because of capacity restraints. So supply is artificially high in the US, keeping prices down. We've just been building up stores inventory while it was down. Netherlands shutting down the field would mean even more unfulfilled demand in Europe.
Commodities don't trade on one price. They trade on a price/location of delivery. We simplify things to make it easier to discuss and benchmark, but there's not just one Brent price. There's not just one WTI price. There's not just one LNG price. We created certain benchmarks to track prices, and in WTIs case it's the terminal on Cushing, OK. For Natural gas, it's the Henry Hub in Erath, LA. NYMEX futures are traded based on delivery in Louisiana and when you see a spot price here, that's what you see.
LNG prices are not consistent worldwide. BOIL only tracks (at 2x) the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex, which domestic 1 month futures prices (not spot prices), so once additional export capacity is free, supply to the US market will go down and price will rise domestically. The analysis that any in investor needs to do is on how much that decrease in supply in the US market will impact prices. For BOIL, specifically how much it will impact 1 month futures prices in the US market. The rest of the world either indexes against the Henry Hub Spot price or against oil. Some countries index against a local spot price because it's so difficult to accurately compare to a Henry delivery.
Biden's administration has kept Freeport shut down longer to keep prices lower domestically and try to sell that they're actually beating inflation.
Here are some of the basics to get smart in this one commodity if you so wish, including an article from when it was announced that Freeport would be closed longer. Keep in mind these are extremely basic, there are a million more articles to read and then there are things you just won't get without working in the industry or being very close with people who do. I know people who have spent their entire careers trading one or two commodities and made millions over millions doing it. One guy I used to work with just knew aluminum markets. His entire career was just that. But he knew it better than anyone and would easily clear 7 figures a year trading it.
https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/boil
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/061422-news-of-lengthy-freeport-lng-terminal-outage-hits-nymex-gas-futures
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/henry_hub.asp
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Thanks for the informative post.
Could've done without the condescension though. I doubt everyone knows all the intricacies about the companies and commodities they trade.
This is what I've struggled to understand.59 South said:
Honest question- why does everyone on here seem to be hung up on trying to trade natural gas? Commodities, especially NG, are hard AF to trade. Why so much mental effort with it?
GreasenUSA said:This is what I've struggled to understand.59 South said:
Honest question- why does everyone on here seem to be hung up on trying to trade natural gas? Commodities, especially NG, are hard AF to trade. Why so much mental effort with it?
I realize BOIL can really move, so there is a potential for big profit. And some are really good at mean reversion strategies. But to continue to long something that is counter to its trend doesn't make sense.
There are much easier and more straight forward trades out there than BOIL.
I don't mean to sound condescending but I did mean to sound serious. The level of question here wasn't necessarily about the intricacies, but was just the basics. LNG can move quickly and wipe your out quickly, especially if you're on margin. If you're trading a levered ETF, it can move even quicker.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Thanks for the informative post.
Could've done without the condescension though. I doubt everyone knows all the intricacies about the companies and commodities they trade.
No, my comment was more about trading to the long side with a leveraged instrument that is inherent to go to zero over its life. Especially when attempting to catch a bottom. If the Bloomberg NG Index goes down, BOIL goes down. If the index chops, BOIL goes down. So, you have more scenarios working against you than you do for other instruments.Philip J Fry said:
Don't confuse going long with swing trading. Right now, BOIL is oversold and has a bullish MACD on the 6 month chart. There's reason to believe we are about to get a bounce soon between the upcoming weather and Freeport.