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24,942,865 Views | 233715 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Brian Earl Spilner
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To be fair the easiest thing is just DCA'ing into S&P 500 and never worrying about it.

I did this for years and it's most certainly guaranteed to make you tons of money in the long run.

But to your point, I don't think anyone here is actually long BOIL.
GreasenUSA
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

To be fair the easiest thing is just DCA'ing into S&P 500 and never worrying about it.

I did this for years and it's most certainly guaranteed to make you tons of money in the long run.
Yep, that's honestly the best strategy for at least 90% of the folks out there who try their hand in the markets.
GreasenUSA
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

But to your point, I don't think anyone here is actually long BOIL.
As far as I know, everyone here is long BOIL. If shares were easy and available to borrow, shorting the equity would be a pretty simple strategy.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Sorry, but I guess I'm not following your point. Phillip mentioned he is swing trading, which by definition is not the same as being long. Same for myself.

Help me out here. Are you saying we're long just because it's a leveraged position?
GreasenUSA
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In trading, Long = Buying and Short = Selling. Has nothing to do with time.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Well that certainly doesn't help when you're trying to differentiate between scalping, swing trading, and holding.

Those could all just be "long" and mean wildly different things.
GreasenUSA
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Well that certainly doesn't help when you're trying to differentiate between scalping, swing trading, and holding.

Those could all just be "long" and mean wildly different things.
Correct.
FishrCoAg
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

There's a difference between suggestions and telling someone not trade.

It'd be nice if people could ask for information or help without that kind of snark.


I think the "don't trade what you don't know" was general advice, not just directed solely at you. And it's damn good advice as a general rule.
Buck Compton
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

The explanation of what Freeport reopening means for LNG in more specific terms was hugely helpful beyond just knowing that's the catalyst. So thanks for that.

Beyond that, I am definitely aware of the inherent risk of leveraged ETFs and commodities in a general sense, and have carefully looked at my risk tolerance before doing so with BOIL.

I'm definitely starting to get into the upper end of that, so there's not gonna be much more averaging down for me beyond maybe a couple more buys around $9. From there, it's either cutting losses, or riding the chop to wait for some profit.

Some of your links are paywalled, but I'm definitely going to read up a little more on LNG and the specifics of how futures prices are affected by certain events.

Since you clearly have a very solid understanding of LNG in particular, would your opinion be that there'll be relief bounce into the $4-5 range in the upcoming month(s)? (Provided that colder weather comes through and Freeport finally reopens in February.)
Your spot price at Henry Hub sits at $3.20 right now. Feb futures show ~$3.13 and March shows ~$3.03 right now. Supply has been fairly consistent at 105-106 bcf. That doesn't change much on a week to week basis.

Winter demand is MUCH lower than usual, but still sits at about 118 bcf per week. and another cold spell in the northern states is already priced in, IMO. Impact of a cold spell would either have to be much more severe, longer in duration, or spread more into southern states to actually impact price that much. If you're looking for a huge price move,

Because Freeport has been closed so long, we've built up extra gas in storage. Freeport is one of only like 7-8 export terminals in the US, and is something like 20% of our export capacity. Along with the two large terminals in Louisiana, they're like 70-75% of our capacity.

Even if we start taking out of underground storage when Freeport opens up, we still have probably 400-500 bcf of excess inventory in storage right now. That doesn't get pumped and delivered overnight. Freeport opening up will add ~2 bcf to that demand number pretty consistently (or about 1.7%). 1.7% demand shock impact is going to be muted by our large inventory storage and doesn't mean a 1.7% increase in price anyway because these aren't linear relationships.

Commodities don't really trade on "relief bounces" very much, especially very short-dated futures. They're hyper-focused on supply and demand projections. Technicals can bear out, but the big moves you're discussing are based on supply and demand of the physical product. I don't like the games they've played with Freeport and I won't pretend to be able to time that. I will say that I locked in my company's hedges over the past 2-3 weeks and I'm happy with the fair price we received whether it goes up or down. $4-5 is a huge range when talking about this, but yes, I'd say the S&D situation is going to shift a bit and you likely see $4 spot again sometime soon and I'd expect a move up as early as this week. But if news comes out again and says that Freeport is delayed again, futures will dump.

All that with a big caveat that this is like 1% of my job now, not 100% like it used to be. I no longer build the models myself and spend an hour or two on this every month. I just hedge my company's opex using models my FP&A team builds.

I don't have any open trades on BOIL and don't expect to. Risk > Reward in my mind and I don't have a complete thesis on entrance and exit and what factors changing would change my thesis. Anything could happen and none of us know the future, but I'm not playing in the markets individually while there are still non-market forces involved in the price.

As another word of caution, I'll tell you the stats of retail traders that trade commodities and currencies from when I was in the business a decade ago… Only 8% made money over the life of their accounts. Only 3% made more than 10% over the life of their account. Almost 30% lost all of their initial funds, many inside of a year.
Philip J Fry
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NG up 7% tonight
Dan Scott
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A bullish note on Nat Gas would be it's starting to feel like winter again. The next two weeks will be colder than average. The weather models I've seen didn't have it being as cold as what they are forecasting now for the next 2 weeks. Also Pennsylvania is going to see a lot of snow which may impact production
Dan Scott
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On Freeport LNG, a LNG vessel arrived from Spain and docked at the facility last night at 8:30. I would think that's a good sign. Tankers are expensive and sitting empty is a waste of money. There are others hanging out offshore, but this one docked.

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9875408
BaylorSpineGuy
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Just gonna throw this one out there from the cheap seats….I doubt any ticker trades as easily as "cold weather = BOIL goes up, hot weather = BOIL goes down."

Making money isn't easy in the market. Zero sum game with the smartest people in the world vying for a piece of the pie. If any Tom, Dick, or Harry could just watch the weather channel and make a small fortune, we'd all be rich.

Commodities, as others have said, require an edge to trade successfully. Everyone has a "zone of genius". Weather patterns and natural gas sales aren't mine and probably aren't for most on here.
wanderer
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Any thoughts on SQ?
$30,000 Millionaire
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wanderer said:

Any thoughts on SQ?


Looks great. Don't fomo.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
ProgN
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Ok family it's Sunday and my Cowboys are being their usual selves so I'm sharing this with y'all if you need a laugh. If you're old like me and/or from the country then you'll be able to relate.



CheladaAg
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Thanks for sharing that. Excellent insight. What's your knowledge on trading these etf's regarding the rollover affect of monthly contracts i.e. Boil is two months ahead so it's trading in March contract and is up only 2% vs the 7% front month. Is that more of a disadvantage?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Quote:

As another word of caution, I'll tell you the stats of retail traders that trade commodities and currencies from when I was in the business a decade ago… Only 8% made money over the life of their accounts. Only 3% made more than 10% over the life of their account. Almost 30% lost all of their initial funds, many inside of a year.
The company I retired from had a large book annually for NatGas and typically wanted to hedge. In 2007/8 to 2010, the internal person that led the NatGas side of the biz evidently couldn't find liquidity in the market (so it was said), so this person personally became the offset to all of the internal company hedging. Corporate busted that person's arse and got a termination due to conflict of interest. Figures were never released over how much was fleeced from the company, but I heard it was millions and that wouldn't be uncommon for the size book. The mofo got a company going away package deal too.... SMH still today.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I think this is a week to size lightly and be careful. Tech earnings, fed soon.

Not a bad time to take off either….
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Brewmaster
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I think this is a week to size lightly and be careful. Tech earnings, fed soon.

Not a bad time to take off either….
sho feels blow off toppy
$30,000 Millionaire
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I think we are in a neutral area, vs a blow off top. 4200 yes.

You have to lean bullish above 3950. I think we see that and 4030 this week. No idea what happens beyond that. Kind of don't care.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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$BOIL should open at $12 if this holds. $15 possible if the bearish perfection picture starts to crack.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
emac0002
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This ETF now holds entirely March '23 contracts, which are up "only" +2.6%. On this track, BOIL gains around +5.2%.
$30,000 Millionaire
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No trades planned today.

VIX, DXY, and SPX are all up today. Who's it gonna be.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Aapl up. Interesting
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Aapl up. Interesting
Yes, coupled with an analyst downgrade this morning.

I'm loving the upward move. I am going to lay off Call Leaps again. It's been great for me.
Spoony Love
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I wouldn't mind seeing it stay elevated trough this week.
wanderer
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Didn't take long for ADBE to reach it's 361.72 gap
gougler08
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AMD launching, any news?
YaketyYak
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gougler08 said:

AMD launching, any news?
Barclays price upgrade to $85 maybe.
Take out the papers and the trash, or you don't get no spendin' cash
JuanDurfel
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YaketyYak said:

gougler08 said:

AMD launching, any news?
Barclays price upgrade to $85 maybe.
Pigging backing off of NVDA?
Spoony Love
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Hard ceiling on SPY at 400 but who would have thought we were talking about 400 within the 1st hour of trading today. Wow
BaylorSpineGuy
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I was doing some looking at the SPX chart this weekend and tried to have neutral eyes instead of my wrong-colored glasses.

I could see a rally easy to the 4300-4500 range before another puke. With all the bearish sentiment, a rally seems like the logical cause. The contrary to that is the oversold indicators, etc. I'm gonna wait and see for a bit. My bias and what I'm seeing are widely divergent. Experts calling for rips and dumps. Makes me anxious….
$30,000 Millionaire
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Well, I traded anyway today.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I'd like both of these back.


You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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