No, he's not dumb, but I view people like this as being broken clocks. If you're always bearish you'll be right sometimes.

I think it's dangerous to give a lot of credence to perma bears because their sound logic is intoxicating but what they think should logically happen doesn't (like our friend SF). You can follow these guys off the cliff.

Over a 10 year time horizon I'd rather follow Tom Lee than Sven even though Tom Lee needs a punch in the face for being irrationally exuberant.

SF2004 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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No, he's not dumb, but I view people like this as being broken clocks. If you're always bearish you'll be right sometimes.

I think it's dangerous to give a lot of credence to perma bears because their sound logic is intoxicating but what they think should logically happen doesn't (like our friend SF). You can follow these guys off the cliff.

Over a 10 year time horizon I'd rather follow Tom Lee than Sven even though Tom Lee needs a punch in the face for being irrationally exuberant.

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I like how you think I'm a perma bear.

What I have noticed is most on this thread only pay attention to whatever indicators are bullish. Which is fine because if you have anything other than a long term bullish strategy then you will be wrong.

Ignore overbought RSI for trend cause stocks only go up. Ignore ****ty earnings, cpi, fundamentals, because it is oversold.

I started following this thread to see if it was possible to get consistent higher returns than the market. Is the juice worth the squeeze?

The first skeptics of Madoff started looking deeper because he was saying he would get 12-15% returns. Which they all said was impossible.

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You are new to this board relatively speaking. I am naturally bearish. Go read my 2020 posts. I resisted the Covid rally from March until June because I believed it was a bear market rally.

What I keep trying to tell you has nothing to do with your bull / bear posture but by the "if this then that" approach I am seeing you take. I keep poking at it because you are letting macro logic influence short term decision making. Macro logic works over long term not short term. Yesterday for example was all about positioning and where to inflict pain for profit.

Indicators are just indicators. They support the analysis but they are not the analysis. A trade that looks perfect on indicators is probably over.

You can absolutely kill the market if you're willing to find the winners. Short term trading is making probabilistic bets with appropriate risk to have a return that exceeds your risk. Similar to poker to be honest.

Long term investing is about finding alpha. Our own Aggie Daniel says this ad nauseum and so do the most famous investors of all time. If you can find alpha, you're set. I think it's Buffett who says to buy great companies at fair prices vs bad companies at great prices

You gonna buy Walmart or Coinbase? You can buy Walmart right now at a fair price. You can buy coinbase at a great price. Which would you bet your future on?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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ProgN said:

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Keep $U on your radar. Upper 20's has been strong support and if you go back about 3-4 months in their newsfeed, the rejected an unsolicited buyout offer of around $55-57/shr so they must thought that offer was well below what they believe their business is worth.

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Video game tech is so fickle. Only thing that gives me pause.

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*Quickly looks away from Call of Duty to check this thread and goes right back to the game. *

We fooked

Jim Cramer has said he sees bullish signs emerging in the stock market.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 21, 2023

Don't see how reducing supply is going to make cost go down. Especially when freeport is running again.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Cool. Wasn't entirely sure what that meant as far as supply/demand.

I guess I'm not super clear on why Freeport opening up is the catalyst everyone's waiting for, since that would increase supply.

But, the cold weather coming in the upcoming weeks/months is sure to help.

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Don't trade in things you don't know. Unlike equities, to trade commodities or any resulting index, you need to understand the market and physical flow of goods.

Freeport is a LNG liquefaction and export terminal. While Freeport is down, LNG that would sell for more abroad can't be exported because of capacity restraints. So supply is artificially high in the US, keeping prices down. We've just been building up stores inventory while it was down. Netherlands shutting down the field would mean even more unfulfilled demand in Europe.

Commodities don't trade on one price. They trade on a price/location of delivery. We simplify things to make it easier to discuss and benchmark, but there's not just one Brent price. There's not just one WTI price. There's not just one LNG price. We created certain benchmarks to track prices, and in WTIs case it's the terminal on Cushing, OK. For Natural gas, it's the Henry Hub in Erath, LA. NYMEX futures are traded based on delivery in Louisiana and when you see a spot price here, that's what you see.

LNG prices are not consistent worldwide. BOIL only tracks (at 2x) the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex, which domestic 1 month futures prices (not spot prices), so once additional export capacity is free, supply to the US market will go down and price will rise domestically. The analysis that any in investor needs to do is on how much that decrease in supply in the US market will impact prices. For BOIL, specifically how much it will impact 1 month futures prices in the US market. The rest of the world either indexes against the Henry Hub Spot price or against oil. Some countries index against a local spot price because it's so difficult to accurately compare to a Henry delivery.

Biden's administration has kept Freeport shut down longer to keep prices lower domestically and try to sell that they're actually beating inflation.

Here are some of the basics to get smart in this one commodity if you so wish, including an article from when it was announced that Freeport would be closed longer. Keep in mind these are extremely basic, there are a million more articles to read and then there are things you just won't get without working in the industry or being very close with people who do. I know people who have spent their entire careers trading one or two commodities and made millions over millions doing it. One guy I used to work with just knew aluminum markets. His entire career was just that. But he knew it better than anyone and would easily clear 7 figures a year trading it.

https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/boil

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/061422-news-of-lengthy-freeport-lng-terminal-outage-hits-nymex-gas-futures

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/henry_hub.asp

I may take some time off. 5 great weeks in a row, 2X my normal trading performance, and I want to remain mentally sharp.

You just keep getting better (no joke) - ride the wave as long as you can bro! BUT if you NEED a break, take one.

Buck Compton said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Cool. Wasn't entirely sure what that meant as far as supply/demand.

I guess I'm not super clear on why Freeport opening up is the catalyst everyone's waiting for, since that would increase supply.

But, the cold weather coming in the upcoming weeks/months is sure to help.

---

Don't trade in things you don't know. Unlike equities, to trade commodities or any resulting index, you need to understand the market and physical flow of goods.

Freeport is a LNG liquefaction and export terminal. While Freeport is down, LNG that would sell for more abroad can't be exported because of capacity restraints. So supply is artificially high in the US, keeping prices down. We've just been building up stores inventory while it was down. Netherlands shutting down the field would mean even more unfulfilled demand in Europe.

Commodities don't trade on one price. They trade on a price/location of delivery. We simplify things to make it easier to discuss and benchmark, but there's not just one Brent price. There's not just one WTI price. There's not just one LNG price. We created certain benchmarks to track prices, and in WTIs case it's the terminal on Cushing, OK. For Natural gas, it's the Henry Hub in Erath, LA. NYMEX futures are traded based on delivery in Louisiana and when you see a spot price here, that's what you see.

LNG prices are not consistent worldwide. BOIL only tracks (at 2x) the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex, which domestic 1 month futures prices (not spot prices), so once additional export capacity is free, supply to the US market will go down and price will rise domestically. The analysis that any in investor needs to do is on how much that decrease in supply in the US market will impact prices. For BOIL, specifically how much it will impact 1 month futures prices in the US market. The rest of the world either indexes against the Henry Hub Spot price or against oil. Some countries index against a local spot price because it's so difficult to accurately compare to a Henry delivery.

Biden's administration has kept Freeport shut down longer to keep prices lower domestically and try to sell that they're actually beating inflation.

Here are some of the basics to get smart in this one commodity if you so wish, including an article from when it was announced that Freeport would be closed longer. Keep in mind these are extremely basic, there are a million more articles to read and then there are things you just won't get without working in the industry or being very close with people who do. I know people who have spent their entire careers trading one or two commodities and made millions over millions doing it. One guy I used to work with just knew aluminum markets. His entire career was just that. But he knew it better than anyone and would easily clear 7 figures a year trading it.

https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/boil

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/061422-news-of-lengthy-freeport-lng-terminal-outage-hits-nymex-gas-futures

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/henry_hub.asp

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Buck! Outstanding post.

Honest question- why does everyone on here seem to be hung up on trying to trade natural gas? Commodities, especially NG, are hard AF to trade. Why so much mental effort with it?

It's one thing to manage some medium/long term sector rotation portfolio management but trading something like BOIL is a whole other beast.

Not trying to judge, just genuinely curious on all the talk…

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Thanks for the informative post.

Could've done without the condescension though. I doubt everyone knows all the intricacies about the companies and commodities they trade.

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it sounds that way to you because you continue showing in your posts that you seem to ignore what people suggest to you to be helpful

59 South said:

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Honest question- why does everyone on here seem to be hung up on trying to trade natural gas? Commodities, especially NG, are hard AF to trade. Why so much mental effort with it?

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This is what I've struggled to understand.

I realize BOIL can really move, so there is a potential for big profit. And some are really good at mean reversion strategies. But to continue to long something that is counter to its trend doesn't make sense.

There are much easier and more straight forward trades out there than BOIL.

GreasenUSA said:

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59 South said:

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Honest question- why does everyone on here seem to be hung up on trying to trade natural gas? Commodities, especially NG, are hard AF to trade. Why so much mental effort with it?

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This is what I've struggled to understand.

I realize BOIL can really move, so there is a potential for big profit. And some are really good at mean reversion strategies. But to continue to long something that is counter to its trend doesn't make sense.

There are much easier and more straight forward trades out there than BOIL.

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Don't confuse going long with swing trading. Right now, BOIL is oversold and has a bullish MACD on the 6 month chart. There's reason to believe we are about to get a bounce soon between the upcoming weather and Freeport.

Definitely agree that NG isn't for everybody. It requires more risk tolerance than the average bear.

There's also the real possibility that we go down into the 2s. So don't play with money you don't mind losing.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Thanks for the informative post.

Could've done without the condescension though. I doubt everyone knows all the intricacies about the companies and commodities they trade.

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I don't mean to sound condescending but I did mean to sound serious. The level of question here wasn't necessarily about the intricacies, but was just the basics. LNG can move quickly and wipe your out quickly, especially if you're on margin. If you're trading a levered ETF, it can move even quicker.

My original career background was heavy in currencies and commodities. So I am extremely comfortable with macro trends and longer-term indicators by sheer experience. Then I was in a role for the better part of a decade where I wasn't allowed to day trade or even trade in most individual equities. Now I'm free of those restrictions.

I've learned a lot about equities through this thread and how to apply the shorter-term lens to some of my trading, as well as for using it to help find better entry spots for my investments. The post is me giving some of that education back where I can.

You don't have to know every intricacy, but the question you asked was just knowing the basics. If our goal is to help each other than my goal was to shock you a bit to get your research desire kicked off. As someone said above, commodities are damn hard. There are easier trades, and you really need to understand the downside of them if you're going to engage in them.