I believe the conditions now favor an imminent stock market crash.
— Michael A. Gayed, CFA (@leadlagreport) December 2, 2022
A 🧵. 👇 (1/20)
I believe the conditions now favor an imminent stock market crash.
— Michael A. Gayed, CFA (@leadlagreport) December 2, 2022
A 🧵. 👇 (1/20)
lobwedgephil said:
Here is a counter view. Don't get too exited Baylor.I believe the conditions now favor an imminent stock market crash.
— Michael A. Gayed, CFA (@leadlagreport) December 2, 2022
A 🧵. 👇 (1/20)
Maybe the better thing is to know what a yield curve inversion means: short term rates exceed long term rates. Why? Because investors are long longer term bonds, which pushes yields down while short term bonds are lower, which pushes rates higher. That behavior is essentially saying that investors believe long term bonds are safer than shorter term purchases hence the yield is pushed down and the bond value increases. Demand for bonds = lower yieldBaylorSpineGuy said:
Good insight. What will be the move to drive the 2-10 curve back into a positive slope?
Please humor me: what is a fair price for the indexes and why?SF2004 said:
Just feels like being long with a VIX hedge in the place to be right now.
I think any higher is BS but that is what this market is.
I have a whole portfolio built out before I started trying different things. This is a small account that I wanted to start learning more about the short term market and I hate cash just sitting around. You are highly skilled for what you do.. no lie. Saw the same setup yesterday on SPY as you... which was nice.$30,000 Millionaire said:Please humor me: what is a fair price for the indexes and why?SF2004 said:
Just feels like being long with a VIX hedge in the place to be right now.
I think any higher is BS but that is what this market is.
You should consider buying DIA and just looking at it in 5 years.
Charismatic Megafauna said:wanderer said:
Odd that /CL is up ~2% and all OIL names (XLE/XOM/CVX/VLO/etc) are all red
Cpe calls seem like a good deal again
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Now i know we're gonna get some epic rug pulls along the way, but who's ready to get back to the bull market!?Closing update #ES_F: 4075 was target today and hit into the close and now basing right here. Notably, ES closed the week above its 200 day MA for the 1st time since bear market began. 4105+ next up. Newsletter out later talking plan and risks next week https://t.co/zS20sba61S
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) December 2, 2022
OPEC+ Agrees to Keep 2M B/D Production Cuts Through Jan-Sources -- WSJ
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December 4, 2022
OPEC+ Keeps Curbs Despite Russia Price Cap Coming Into Effect Dec 5--Sources -- WSJ
OPEC+ Decision Comes Amid Mounting Concern Over Chinese Covid Lockdowns -- WSJ
I have nothing intelligent to add, great posts here, just getting caught up. I'm with Prog, I think seasonality takes over and if big $ wants a higher exit, they will make that happen. I went long MARA on Friday, I will ride it and some UPRO and keep resetting stops and see what happens.ProgN said:
Fundamentals warrant it but I wouldn't expect it this December, so I would position myself for last week of January to middle of March. Today's recovery from a big red open defied logic and it's hard to discount Santa.
A “decisive moment” for $SPX, says @fundstrat. “We think this rally has more support compared to the June ‘false pivot’ rally to 4,325 .. thus, we see S&P 500 rallying above that level towards 4,400-4,500” by year-end. pic.twitter.com/aENx9sWA7A
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) December 4, 2022
I don't own BOIL. Can't speak to it. I can tell you this, should the market react bearishly to Dec 4th OPEC+ happenings, it's the easy course to take. A lot of those trader & financial folks will need to witness first-hand how the price caps are going to play out. Russia already released statements and there out on the web. In short, Russia gave the middle finger. There's way to much in the real world happenings scantly reported by the press to see this as bearish, but hey, spin is in. Trump tried to tell EU to contract with other suppliers for LNG. Today, LNG is sold out through 2026. Contracts today are for the 30 years after 2026. This Administration has made U.S. fossil fuels so toxic to the financial market nobody wants to step in and finance, so if you want a contract and the supplier wants the deal, you'll have to by default, finance the long term contract to have the supplier commit to spend capital. There will be less energy. Buckle up.wanderer said:
We'll that's less than ideal after just buying on Friday (BOIL).
Heineken-Ashi said:
This action in nat gas is the kind of thing that happens at the end of a trend. And that trend has been down since end of last winter.