initial jobless claims today highest in 9 monthsBonfire1996 said:Boom. March 31. Reminder: the only tool the FED has to drop inflation is to kill jobs.Bonfire1996 said:
Regarding 2yr/10yr Treasury rate inversion, I particularly enjoyed the talking heads who downplayed it and said, "It doesn't mean an absolute recession", "it may not happen", or my favorite "it isn't a real inversion since the yield curve is so flat from Covid"
These people. Shake My Damn Head.
Nonetheless, we will shut them up in July - Sept with a true inversion by around 50 basis points. The FED is going up 100 bp over the next two meetings. The 2 year treasury is going to 2.9%.
Everyone says the fed is watching this inflation gauge or that inflation gauge……wrong. Inflation already happened. It's endemic, to borrow a word. It's time to destroy demand. The Fed is going to watch jobless claims. Until jobless claims rise, the Fed is going to make it effing hurt.
Invest accordingly. This is a medium term dead cat bounce through June.
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always neat to see a trend line in perfect action
austinAG90 said:
Fears of 100 Basis Move Flatten Curve..Risk Off ...SOARING DOLLAR
This is no surprise to us that talk is now going from 50-75 for the next hike in July to 75-100... Fed Governors are reading from the same playbook overnight as both Mester and Daly refused to rule out 100... And Bostic made similar comments yesterday... Today we have Waller, who has been adamant about 75, will he change to 100 today?... Market is starting to build that in. With odds of 100 increasing for July and 75 for September... But the peak is now February, with the Fed starting to reverse in March... Yesterday March was the peak and May was the reverse...
Overnight markets are in risk off mode as both JPM and MS earnings were disappointing for different reasons...JPM, Fixed Income was lower and Global Investment Banking was off 54%... For MS they are being impacted by a 'regulatory matter"... Both have come off their lows... In Europe, the expected GDP for 2023 was CUT 39% FROM 2.3 TO 1.4%... This has added to the soaring dollar... Italy is in the midst of a no confidence vote and Draghi has threatened to resign... So Italian 10 years are down 20 basis.... Risk off is hitting equities...
S+P futures dropped dramatically on the EU announcement going from 3805 to 3754 where we are now... This is breaking the 3800 range we have been holding... We see 3639 as the next level based on the charts... Ultimately we would not be surprised to see 3500 start to be in the narrative...
Rates... The inversion is taking hold ... 2/10 inverted another 14 basis yesterday and is continuing its inversion trend... This is the most inverted since 2000.. Then it hit minus 56... At this rate it could be there before the September meeting... 2/30 is inverted... And if the Fed raises 100 we will start to see 3 month bills come close to 10 year notes... That is the real optic for recession talk... THREE MONTH LIBOR MOVED THE MOST SINCE 2008, UP 22.829 BASIS TO 2.74029... Short rates are ugly and getting uglier...
What are we looking at??? Dollar index is soaring as the European economy is faltering and the US economy remains strong...DXY has now broken out again to 108.722 .. The next resistance on the charts is 110, a level that was hit 20 years ago... The historic high is 164 back in 1985... It will stall out... The second thing we are looking at are Michigan sentiment numbers tomorrow, something Powell follows... PPI today will be ignored, even though the expectation is 10.7%
Conclusion... Fed is in a bind... If they raise rates too aggressively they will spin the economy into recession... YESTERDAY WAS THE PEAK IN INFLATION...that one is easy, just look at oil and commodities... And ignore the lagging rent numbers, which should not be in the equation... Fed is not going to spin the economy into recession based on backward looking numbers... But as they continue to be aggressive we will repeat what we said yesterday which got some press..
The more aggressive the Fed, the higher they raise rates... The higher they raise rates, the more the recession outlook increases... The more the recession outlook increases the lower the long term yields... So we think three things.
1) the 10 year HY of the year has peaked at 3.49
2) as per what Dudley said this morning that we forwarded on, the Senate could curtail the Fed's ability to do QE as their losses for the year approach 1 trillion... That talk is already on the table from Brown of Ohio
The Fed may go 100, but if they do, the recession or slowdown will be brief and a curtailment or raising rates will happen more quickly...
these are the same guys who stated YESTERDAY there would be no recession.
I am not taking investment advice from these types of "experts".
would rather listen to this board.
Same for me.
Full round trip in #ES_F and back to the July 1st lows. Yesterday, 3775 was *must* hold support to trigger selling & after bouncing 30 points overnight, it cracked.
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) July 14, 2022
Plan today: Support = 3745. Bounce spot, but if it can't clear 3780 (triggers low for the day), 3708, 3660 next https://t.co/O8J8ZSlgM2
I'm an amateur investor. And this doesn't seem like amateur hour right now.
O&G is going to gap down this morning at opening.
See if XOM reaches its 200 day EMA some point today (~79).
GOOG is going to open below yesterdays low again.
JPM missed on Earnings and is opening with a slight gap down.
See if XOM reaches its 200 day EMA some point today (~79).
GOOG is going to open below yesterdays low again.
JPM missed on Earnings and is opening with a slight gap down.
Same. I'm out for now.South Platte said:
I'm an amateur investor. And this doesn't seem like amateur hour right now.
bear flags everywhere. guessing we grind down today.
MSFT is setting new lows. GOOG is trying to hold on to 2200. Not looking good
Filled some limit buys I had for TQQQ/UPRO.
Got two lefts for TQQQ at 23 and 22 that I don't think will fill, but who knows.
Got two lefts for TQQQ at 23 and 22 that I don't think will fill, but who knows.
Qs need to hold here.
Big dump coming, IMO
South Platte said:
I'm an amateur investor. And this doesn't seem like amateur hour right now.
for the people leading this country into a massive ditch - it's ALWAYS amateur hour.
280 was the touch point from yesterday's opening.BrokeAssAggie said:
Qs need to hold here.
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Meh, I made a few hundred bucks scalping. Trading today is likely to be a tough row to hoe. OPEX plus digestion of inflation and potential rate increase changes plus last major MA resistance area for QQQ and SPX.
looking like it might hold..texagbeliever said:280 was the touch point from yesterday's opening.BrokeAssAggie said:
Qs need to hold here.
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369 6/17-6/21 gap fill? Worth a couple lottos. (Edit: i mean buying calls for tomorrow if we hit 369...not buying puts hoping for us to get there)
"This is overdone, these things are not linear" /30k
"This is overdone, these things are not linear" /30k
I cleaned up on JPM puts. Made a good 30-40% but I traded the august monthlies I bought last week. Made my dinner money for today :-).
I called out the 105-110 chart gap months ago and kept going to the well until it closed. May still have small gap but mostly gone.
FYI, there is a small gap around 89-90 that goes back a couple years. That one may close in October at next earnings call if things don't improve dramatically.
I called out the 105-110 chart gap months ago and kept going to the well until it closed. May still have small gap but mostly gone.
FYI, there is a small gap around 89-90 that goes back a couple years. That one may close in October at next earnings call if things don't improve dramatically.
It was a good call and put it on my radar! I made money on JPM puts yesterday and then today with the gap down.BaylorSpineGuy said:
I cleaned up on JPM puts. Made a good 30-40% but I traded the august monthlies I bought last week. Made my dinner money for today :-).
I called out the 105-110 chart gap months ago and kept going to the well until it closed. May still have small gap but mostly gone.
FYI, there is a small gap around 89-90 that goes back a couple years. That one may close in October at next earnings call if things don't improve dramatically.
here is the bull challenge for 282. Rejected in the opening 30 mins, but solid momentum now.BrokeAssAggie said:looking like it might hold..texagbeliever said:280 was the touch point from yesterday's opening.BrokeAssAggie said:
Qs need to hold here.
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Ttd long feels somewhat safe here, unless you think it's headed for the 20s
Just got back from ban camp, been a couple months lads. How are we doing?
Nice work! shame on me for saying don't buy more puts in it
irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:
SPY 383P
+2.44% on day
8 straight green.
Done for day, now off to ArcGIS to map for my brother and make more $ today.
Another green day! Trying to turn into Tony Gwynn with the base hits. Spending very little time in each trade.
Traded SPY both directions.
9 green in a row.
+2.83% image flagged, it's so random when it chooses to flag.
I'm overnighting a small SQQQ position.
10 in a row green.
This was a wild ride today.
Sold SQQQ overnight for profit.
Bought SPY puts when in the AM but ended up taking a loss when it rocketed at 9:30am.
Tried to flip to calls, but got shook out again.
Went to QQQ and got into calls... I honestly went a little too heavy and also got in a little too early, but I was convicted it was going to get a new HOD and it did and I scaled out.
Thankfully about 5 or 6 bars before this absolute stop loss raid.
I honestly feel a little dirty about how I traded today. I held too long. Every losing trade could have been a winner. I also somewhat revenge traded and it worked out, but man if it hadn't... I'd have been staring at a -10% type day. But green is green I reckon.
Edit to say I degen'ed... couldn't help but think there was at least one more flush left in QQQ so a small put
Back to my old ways today. In and out quick. See green take green. I'm done for the day. 11 green in a row.
Tony Gwynn. Trying to be like Tony.
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TSLA battery plant (Someday maybe we could get one in a certain location in Alabama)
https://www.kwch.com/2022/07/13/panasonic-bring-billion-dollar-electric-vehicle-battery-plant-tesla-kansas/
https://www.kwch.com/2022/07/13/panasonic-bring-billion-dollar-electric-vehicle-battery-plant-tesla-kansas/
I'll have what she's having
She's a lovely rally ass girl.
I should create a team of "Rally Ass Women", kinda like the Bud light girls.
I should create a team of "Rally Ass Women", kinda like the Bud light girls.
Qs trying to break yesterday high
3800 magnet by close
Jamie Dimon rips Fed stress test as 'terrible way to run' financial system (cnbc.com)
Good read Doc and anyone else playing in banks.
Good read Doc and anyone else playing in banks.
I find I'm not a good countertrend trader. Need to work on this aspect of my trading. Bear setups are fairly obvious and I've done decently well trading the downside.
I find myself distrustful of these rallies because I believe company multiples are severely elevated - that's another debate - and a large correction is needed to restore normalcy. There's no planet where monthly rent is $5000 for an apartment (June '22 in NYC) where a correction in asset prices isn't warranted. Don't know if that will come.
Anyway, I didn't trend the upward direction today even though the gains would've been very nice. Need to learn to trade the bull side and bull set ups.
Anyway, just rambling. Hope everyone made dinner money tonight. I made my $1000 this morning and have enjoyed from the sidelines.
I find myself distrustful of these rallies because I believe company multiples are severely elevated - that's another debate - and a large correction is needed to restore normalcy. There's no planet where monthly rent is $5000 for an apartment (June '22 in NYC) where a correction in asset prices isn't warranted. Don't know if that will come.
Anyway, I didn't trend the upward direction today even though the gains would've been very nice. Need to learn to trade the bull side and bull set ups.
Anyway, just rambling. Hope everyone made dinner money tonight. I made my $1000 this morning and have enjoyed from the sidelines.
I listened to a podcast about a month ago where a guy commented about how extended/leveraged JPM was. I've suspected this for a while think home prices where good credit borrowers are using equity from one home to purchase a second and so forth. If home prices correct, the house of cards will follow.
Don't suspect this was the bottom day for JPM but the gap I called out is almost closed. Once dealer positioning changes (maybe in a month or two), I may play further. It was a risky trade I made cause there's a big gap above in the 120s and I bet that closes next.
Don't suspect this was the bottom day for JPM but the gap I called out is almost closed. Once dealer positioning changes (maybe in a month or two), I may play further. It was a risky trade I made cause there's a big gap above in the 120s and I bet that closes next.
anyone have some good websites/message boards where they discuss WHY events are happening on Wall Street?BaylorSpineGuy said:
I find I'm not a good countertrend trader. Need to work on this aspect of my trading. Bear setups are fairly obvious and I've done decently well trading the downside.
I find myself distrustful of these rallies because I believe company multiples are severely elevated - that's another debate - and a large correction is needed to restore normalcy. There's no planet where monthly rent is $5000 for an apartment (June '22 in NYC) where a correction in asset prices isn't warranted. Don't know if that will come.
Anyway, I didn't trend the upward direction today even though the gains would've been very nice. Need to learn to trade the bull side and bull set ups.
Anyway, just rambling. Hope everyone made dinner money tonight. I made my $1000 this morning and have enjoyed from the sidelines.
because when the market opens with Dow down 600 - with relentless bad news throughout the day
then leads to a positive close on the NASDAQ and a gain of 500 points on the Dow
it just does not make sense.