JUST IN: Joe Biden has said he would use military force against Iran to stop it from acquiring nuclear weapons.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 13, 2022

Just a guess….he went off the teleprompter?

Bonfire1996 said:

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Regarding 2yr/10yr Treasury rate inversion, I particularly enjoyed the talking heads who downplayed it and said, "It doesn't mean an absolute recession", "it may not happen", or my favorite "it isn't a real inversion since the yield curve is so flat from Covid"

These people. Shake My Damn Head.

Nonetheless, we will shut them up in July - Sept with a true inversion by around 50 basis points. The FED is going up 100 bp over the next two meetings. The 2 year treasury is going to 2.9%.

Everyone says the fed is watching this inflation gauge or that inflation gauge……wrong. Inflation already happened. It's endemic, to borrow a word. It's time to destroy demand. The Fed is going to watch jobless claims. Until jobless claims rise, the Fed is going to make it effing hurt.

Invest accordingly. This is a medium term dead cat bounce through June.

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Boom. March 31. Reminder: the only tool the FED has to drop inflation is to kill jobs.

irish pete ag06 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FrioAg 00 said:

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As battery technology advances, those unstable but sustainable energy sources like wind and solar become much more viable

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My bet is that SMRs displace wind & solar. At least large scale penetration of wind and solar. They will also displace a fair bit of natural gas and probably the remaining coal plants. I just am not a believer in battery technology. It's been 7 years since they were lauded as the energy game changer. And 7 years later they are nothing more than giant surge protectors.

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Speaking of SMR, is there a long term stock to buy to bet on nuclear long term?

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To date, NuScale (a subsidiary of Fluor) is the only company to receive approval to build test reactors by the DOE. To highlight the insanity of this whole deal, these reactors aren't scheduled until '29 and '30.

NuScale - $SMR
Fluor - $FLR

No idea if these are great investments. I just asked my wife who she would invest in if looking at nuclear projects for the future.

More info
https://www.energy.gov/ne/advanced-small-modular-reactors-smrs

Opex Friday, but I think tomorrow is a really big day for determining if there will be rally continuation. Bears couldn't spike the football today.

I'd probably lean short below 3790, I'd probably lean bullish above 3815. I think the space in between will be chop zone.

irish pete ag06 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FrioAg 00 said:

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As battery technology advances, those unstable but sustainable energy sources like wind and solar become much more viable

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My bet is that SMRs displace wind & solar. At least large scale penetration of wind and solar. They will also displace a fair bit of natural gas and probably the remaining coal plants. I just am not a believer in battery technology. It's been 7 years since they were lauded as the energy game changer. And 7 years later they are nothing more than giant surge protectors.

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Speaking of SMR, is there a long term stock to buy to bet on nuclear long term?

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Yep, go to a casino and put it all on black at the roulette wheel. Although all intelligent people know nuclear is the only way, you'll be parking money that will just be dead money. You've found a successful way that you're growing your account based on your posts, why deviate from success, especially in a maybe? Nuclear involves too much politics and your money would be at more risk than reward imo.

ProgN said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FrioAg 00 said:

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As battery technology advances, those unstable but sustainable energy sources like wind and solar become much more viable

---

My bet is that SMRs displace wind & solar. At least large scale penetration of wind and solar. They will also displace a fair bit of natural gas and probably the remaining coal plants. I just am not a believer in battery technology. It's been 7 years since they were lauded as the energy game changer. And 7 years later they are nothing more than giant surge protectors.

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Speaking of SMR, is there a long term stock to buy to bet on nuclear long term?

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Yep, go to a casino and put it all on black at the roulette wheel. Although all intelligent people know nuclear is the only way, you'll be parking money that will just be dead money. You've found a successful way that you're growing your account based on your posts, why deviate from success, especially in a maybe? Nuclear involves too much politics and your money would be at more risk than reward imo.

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Ha, yep. Good point! I was meaning for more of a Roth IRA purchase but to be honest, I don't know why I would expect this modern day country we live in to do anything rational.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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ProgN said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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FrioAg 00 said:

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As battery technology advances, those unstable but sustainable energy sources like wind and solar become much more viable

---

My bet is that SMRs displace wind & solar. At least large scale penetration of wind and solar. They will also displace a fair bit of natural gas and probably the remaining coal plants. I just am not a believer in battery technology. It's been 7 years since they were lauded as the energy game changer. And 7 years later they are nothing more than giant surge protectors.

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Speaking of SMR, is there a long term stock to buy to bet on nuclear long term?

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Yep, go to a casino and put it all on black at the roulette wheel. Although all intelligent people know nuclear is the only way, you'll be parking money that will just be dead money. You've found a successful way that you're growing your account based on your posts, why deviate from success, especially in a maybe? Nuclear involves too much politics and your money would be at more risk than reward imo.

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This Aggie was my next door neighbor for 3 years. I always thought he would lead America in some way in the nuclear field. Last job I remember him having at Ford was developing their EV's. Guess he got a better gig with Amazon. I remember we had a conversation about 3 Mile Island after he returned as an intern with the nuclear regulatory agency, if I recall correctly. He spent some time there. Ever since that conversation, nuclear & the U.S. just didn't seem like it wanted to come together....and that's been a long time ago.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2021/06/24/chief-technology-officer-ken-washington-amazon/5328732001/

We have the people and the technology. The "why not" is the bigger piece of the puzzle.

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Nuclear makes too much sense to be the solution, which is maddening. If the greenies truly want to be green, this is the way to go. The nuclear of tomorrow bears no resemblance to the nuclear of yesterday. Finding the right mix for an individual utility has to involve nuclear if the state regulators won't approve new gas. If you live in a blue state like I do, you can't retire coal fast enough and they have already turned their sights on gas. It's not physically possible to run our state on renewables, even though we are blessed with abundant sunshine and wind.

There are some really smart people working on the utility of the future. Unfortunately there aren't enough believers in politics and regulatory agencies right now to make much of a difference.

Prog is right - money invested in nuclear probably doesn't pay off for years and years. Natural gas is the bridge fuel to whatever is next and is the smart play, even more so once the politicians realize we don't want to end up like Germany or the UK.

Yellen warns inflation in the U.S. is 'unacceptably high'

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/yellen-warns-inflation-in-the-us-is-unacceptably-high.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

This article will piss you off during breakfast.

This has a real easy fix and it's not draining the SPR.

Fears of 100 Basis Move Flatten Curve..Risk Off ...SOARING DOLLAR

This is no surprise to us that talk is now going from 50-75 for the next hike in July to 75-100... Fed Governors are reading from the same playbook overnight as both Mester and Daly refused to rule out 100... And Bostic made similar comments yesterday... Today we have Waller, who has been adamant about 75, will he change to 100 today?... Market is starting to build that in. With odds of 100 increasing for July and 75 for September... But the peak is now February, with the Fed starting to reverse in March... Yesterday March was the peak and May was the reverse...

Overnight markets are in risk off mode as both JPM and MS earnings were disappointing for different reasons...JPM, Fixed Income was lower and Global Investment Banking was off 54%... For MS they are being impacted by a 'regulatory matter"... Both have come off their lows... In Europe, the expected GDP for 2023 was CUT 39% FROM 2.3 TO 1.4%... This has added to the soaring dollar... Italy is in the midst of a no confidence vote and Draghi has threatened to resign... So Italian 10 years are down 20 basis.... Risk off is hitting equities...

S+P futures dropped dramatically on the EU announcement going from 3805 to 3754 where we are now... This is breaking the 3800 range we have been holding... We see 3639 as the next level based on the charts... Ultimately we would not be surprised to see 3500 start to be in the narrative...

Rates... The inversion is taking hold ... 2/10 inverted another 14 basis yesterday and is continuing its inversion trend... This is the most inverted since 2000.. Then it hit minus 56... At this rate it could be there before the September meeting... 2/30 is inverted... And if the Fed raises 100 we will start to see 3 month bills come close to 10 year notes... That is the real optic for recession talk... THREE MONTH LIBOR MOVED THE MOST SINCE 2008, UP 22.829 BASIS TO 2.74029... Short rates are ugly and getting uglier...

What are we looking at??? Dollar index is soaring as the European economy is faltering and the US economy remains strong...DXY has now broken out again to 108.722 .. The next resistance on the charts is 110, a level that was hit 20 years ago... The historic high is 164 back in 1985... It will stall out... The second thing we are looking at are Michigan sentiment numbers tomorrow, something Powell follows... PPI today will be ignored, even though the expectation is 10.7%

Conclusion... Fed is in a bind... If they raise rates too aggressively they will spin the economy into recession... YESTERDAY WAS THE PEAK IN INFLATION...that one is easy, just look at oil and commodities... And ignore the lagging rent numbers, which should not be in the equation... Fed is not going to spin the economy into recession based on backward looking numbers... But as they continue to be aggressive we will repeat what we said yesterday which got some press..

The more aggressive the Fed, the higher they raise rates... The higher they raise rates, the more the recession outlook increases... The more the recession outlook increases the lower the long term yields... So we think three things.

1) the 10 year HY of the year has peaked at 3.49
2) as per what Dudley said this morning that we forwarded on, the Senate could curtail the Fed's ability to do QE as their losses for the year approach 1 trillion... That talk is already on the table from Brown of Ohio

The Fed may go 100, but if they do, the recession or slowdown will be brief and a curtailment or raising rates will happen more quickly...

Also is Twitter down for everyone? Or just for me based on browsing history?