Out of my calls. I probably cut that short, but I'm trying to take profits early with the high volatility these days. I hope it keeps running.

i bought a handful of TSLA 715Cs to start the week at 3.6.

sold half at 9, some at 13, some at 14.1. that was a good trade

I must have missed it when you called that one out!

If you haven't checked lately

Crude $103.94 / +$5.41

Quote:

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Russia shuts down crude oil down pipeline for 30 days. This is chess move #1, this should get real interesting if Europe and US are successful with price cap strategy.

Kazakhstan's president called for diversifying the country's oil supply routes, a day after a Russian court suspended operations on a major export pipeline.

The comments by Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev on July 7 highlighted Kazakh worries about getting its oil--which is a major source of government revenue--out to world markets. It also underscored potential tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia, whose relationship has turned *****ly amid the Russian war against Ukraine.

Around 80 percent of Kazakhstan's oil exports flow via the Caspian Pipeline to the terminal in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk.

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In a nutshell,...EIA report today shows crude build (typically happens on July 4th week as no trucks are moving products) expected. Refined products reduced.

Again, if you remove the SPR releases, the S&D is short. There is no fundamental reason why oil futures or O&G stocks should be at discounted levels with, or without, recession and inflation.

The significance to the quoted story above,...if that pipeline shuts down for 30 days, it's the equivalent of the SPR releases. It's an offset.

Again, without the SPR releases today, there is no build - it's a deficit Plug in the pipeline event, the EIA reports will start to show the drawdown. It's bullish oil and O&G stocks.

Why FJB is draining the SPR is mind numbing and more spectacular is, part of those SPR releases are going to China. How effing stupid is this guy? If FJB increases the volume of the SPR releases, we have a National Security Risk....today we have the potential. Appears the Russians see it that way too and hitting the airwaves with it as of yesterday.

ETA: Forgot to mention...the Russians appear to want Alaska back, not kidding.

Agree! Farmer's drum banging was getting loud and when I saw that GUSH chart throwing a reversal this week, I jumped in yesterday and swung a 65% gain overnight. Cheers!

You're welcome!

In my career, you were trained in S&D analysis. Actually brain-washed with S&D analysis. I may not be able to read a financial statement like a seasoned accountant, but I can torture an S&D until it gives up the truth.

Sometimes the S&D can be so supportive of a position (long or short) and the market takes the opposite side, it happens and you end up losing. In this case, the opposite side is obliterated. Even should the Russian/Ukraine war end, the S&D does not change. Structurally, the CAPEX was not spent by energy companies over the last 2.5 years to keep up with basic growing demand. Fossil fuel companies aren't going to spend CAPEX to improve the situation when this Administration is trying to kill them off. If Blackrock and Soro's are on the other side of this, I hope they take a hit.

***I hold a concern over the SPR being drained.***

I hold a concern over the numbers that are being reported by EIA and IEA. USDA taught me over the last 7 years that what they report isn't always so...to the point that they go back and adjust 2 year old numbers to make current numbers appear legit. It wasn't always this way..

Non-farm payroll number is released tomorrow morning. I expect profit taking before the close.

ProgN said:

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Non-farm payroll number is released tomorrow morning. I expect profit taking before the close.

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zero reason?

Lake08 said:

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Glad the green wave this week. What makes me just shake my head is there is zero reason for this. Pure gambling and manipulation.

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You don't understand stock markets, do you?

FJ43 said:

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What's happening Gents! Reading the thread each night but haven't posted much. Miss y'all and playing in the sandbox with ya. Trading each week but hard to post so don't want anyone to risk not being able to manage the trades if I did.

Doing my nightly chart check ups and scans.

Trend lines and SRs have been drawn for a while. Interesting ping pong. Added a few arrows for y'all to keep an eye on.

We are still bear flagging and in a downtrend so be careful getting giddy to the upside until it confirms. Traders market IMO.

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So what did y'all do? Level to level. Now……