LOL!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/energy-expert-warns-tight-global-oil-market-getting-worse

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XCharismatic Megafauna said:

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FJ43 said:

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FJ43 said:

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What's happening Gents! Reading the thread each night but haven't posted much. Miss y'all and playing in the sandbox with ya. Trading each week but hard to post so don't want anyone to risk not being able to manage the trades if I did.

Doing my nightly chart check ups and scans.

Trend lines and SRs have been drawn for a while. Interesting ping pong. Added a few arrows for y'all to keep an eye on.

We are still bear flagging and in a downtrend so be careful getting giddy to the upside until it confirms. Traders market IMO.

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So what did y'all do? Level to level. Now……

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So you're saying the 391 calls i bought in the dip before close may not have been a high probability move?

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Chances are you can trade that. Just me but I would make sure I exit green (if it was me I'd be playing the open) or set a stop at the very least. 391-393 and change will tell me more. 393ish more so. That blue downtrend line is an important TA level IMO.

Notice volume also. Fed stuff tomorrow will probably decide.

I bought next weeks (7/15) ATM puts (388s at 5.02) near close.

Lake08 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Lake08 said:

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Glad the green wave this week. What makes me just shake my head is there is zero reason for this. Pure gambling and manipulation.

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You don't understand stock markets, do you?

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Nope and neither do any of us on this board. You guys obviously know what you're looking at, but just like every here, have no clue on direction. That's not an insult, just fact. I've gotten rediculously lucky on this casino, but admit and understand the small guys (us) have no real idea what is going on

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I think you'll find there a number on here who understand the markets. Some currently do or have made their living and careers in it. Others are solid traders with decades of experience.

The one you responded to happens to be one of those.

FJ43 said:

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Lake08 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Lake08 said:

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Glad the green wave this week. What makes me just shake my head is there is zero reason for this. Pure gambling and manipulation.

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You don't understand stock markets, do you?

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Nope and neither do any of us on this board. You guys obviously know what you're looking at, but just like every here, have no clue on direction. That's not an insult, just fact. I've gotten rediculously lucky on this casino, but admit and understand the small guys (us) have no real idea what is going on

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I think you'll find there a number on here who understand the markets. Some currently do or have made their living and careers in it. Others are solid traders with decades of experience.

The one you responded to happens to be one of those.

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To be fair, there are some days where all the experience in the world combined can't explain the market. Today, and this whole week really, wasn't one of them.

I'm on my mobile, apologies for being brief:

There is a hierarchy of assets that results in stocks being moved. Central banks influence interest rates which influence commodities which influence currencies which influence bonds which influence stocks which influence derivatives.

I can't teach trading in one post but what you should know is 1) markets move in waves vs straight up and down, 2) markets are a constant competition between buyers and sellers, and 3) everything reverts to the mean. We were extended to the downside, we have to retrace.

You're right that I have no idea intraday which way price will move. I react. But I have a pretty good idea of where we are (key word here) likely to go.

I love Mancini's pinned tweet:

Pro traders aren't any better at "predicting" where the market will go than a hobby trader, and its not the job. The difference is all in execution: Finding lvls, protecting profits once available, stopping out & adjusting when wrong, and consistant loss size control. Focus there

— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) June 12, 2022

gig em 02 said:

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FJ43 said:

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Lake08 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Lake08 said:

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Glad the green wave this week. What makes me just shake my head is there is zero reason for this. Pure gambling and manipulation.

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You don't understand stock markets, do you?

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Nope and neither do any of us on this board. You guys obviously know what you're looking at, but just like every here, have no clue on direction. That's not an insult, just fact. I've gotten rediculously lucky on this casino, but admit and understand the small guys (us) have no real idea what is going on

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I think you'll find there a number on here who understand the markets. Some currently do or have made their living and careers in it. Others are solid traders with decades of experience.

The one you responded to happens to be one of those.

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To be fair, there are some days where all the experience in the world combined can't explain the market. Today, and this whole week really, wasn't one of them.

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I'm just a redneck trader and trade what's in front of me using TA combined with a little homework. Don't pay attention to my trading for sure.

I only speculate on real estate and privately held companies. Ehhhh....and a few longs for good measure.

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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I love Mancini's pinned tweet:

Pro traders aren't any better at "predicting" where the market will go than a hobby trader, and its not the job. The difference is all in execution: Finding lvls, protecting profits once available, stopping out & adjusting when wrong, and consistant loss size control. Focus there

— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) June 12, 2022

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Trading 101. Solid advice. Page 1 of this forum starts with this is a trading thread and where we share trading strategies and market chatter.

Mancini is a Pro Trader. He's one if the very few I follow.

Do you think this guy is in on some secret that the common folk don't know?

He could be right, but don't think that because he works for an investment bank, he's got some magical insight. Those clowns make money either way.

I think most on this thread have a pretty good pulse on the economy and market. But we do tend to get green in our eyes particularly after good rallies.

I'm just sharing an opinion of someone who is active in the international business sphere/works for a Wall Street bank who believes we haven't seen the worst.

Take it or leave it. This is where we share market chatter, particularly in the evening. It's become a regular pleasantry for me, especially to share all the back and forth and different views.

You and 30k and now Mancini have been beating it into my head for a while and it's finally really sinking in. It's really a low risk game with proper position sizing, not getting greedy, protecting capital with stop losses, etc. A couple 4/5/10x on 0dtes messes with your head and get you to make mistakes.

FrioAg 00 said:

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Just curious for the pro traders (or semi-pros):

Do you feel confident your success would scale proportionately if you were playing with capital 10X bigger? 100X?

I'm not asking what "moves the market", more would you be just as comfortable with the same strategy if the stakes were much, much higher?

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Yes, but maintaining discipline is paramount. The larger your account grows then then the size of your positions increase as well. Overconfidence because your last 7 trades were winners will lead to blowing up your account when swinging large blocks or gambling heavy on risky options. It's a must to stick to the rules you've established for yourself through your journey. Most rules are created from mistakes, ignoring those rules will more than likely end in disaster.

Hope you guys have a great Friday and Monday! Am taking the kids and wife to a long weekend in San Diego.

Gonna go to the zoo, Coronado, among a few other places. My partner said to eat at Hash House A Go Go, so those are on the check off list.

Gougler and I are headed to Portugal with our wives and friends on Saturday.

I would only trade shares on a 100X bigger account, but that's because of liquidity issues.

Strategy would work, absolutely. Buy low, sell high.

You'd be surprised how much easier trading is if you only bought and sold shares and if you did that during times where the reward exceeded the risk. Example: going long today at 2:15 would have been sort of stupid IMO.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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I think 30K and others have a good pulse for the market. The one foot out the door philosophy is good, especially as we approach resistance.

I heard through a birdie (friend of my best friend) who is an investment banker at a major American bank (this guy apparently underwrites loans for inedtments, etc.), and he is quite concerned about the future.

He said that come October-November time, he says most people won't believe how bad it will get. I believe the term he used was "brutal" as it relates to the markets. Was more or less predicting a 3 yr worldwide recession.

We may still be early and no one knows the distant future, but this guy (and I've met him he's sharp) does not feel we have bottomed, so enter cautiously.

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Smart people can be wrong or partially wrong too. I think some folks are looking for a repeat of 2008. Some of you traded then. It was scary, kind of like Covid. You'd have these 8% down days and the Dow would lose 800 points (a lot back then when the Dow was a 12,000 index), and then be up 600 the next day. Anyway, that started in September / October and it was wild for a couple of months, then it grinded down for about 6 more months before bottoming. The peak was in Q4 2007 and the bottom was Q1 2009. The price action was kind of like it is now. You had some selling in Q1 to get people excited, then you had a stable summer, and then the bottom fell out.

The thing is that big banks were literally failing. I don't think we are going to repeat that scenario. If we have a 2% economic contraction for a couple quarters after 6% annual growth, it's not really the end of the world. The sun will keep rising and humans will keep innovating and trying to beat the competition. Tale as old as time. There could be something unexpected, I don't know.

An interesting thing for me is that it seems to be accepted widely that we are going to puke into Q4 and have a horrible time. That wasn't the sentiment in 08 or early 2020. It could happen, but just some food for thought.

If you're really worried, collar your shares through the end of the year.

October is 2.5 months away. That's 80 days for bear magic.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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LOL!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/energy-expert-warns-tight-global-oil-market-getting-worse

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Me being only the 2nd star for this post is a good indicator of the humour status of this thread. Maybe my sense is just different - or maybe most of you clowns are just uptight!

If you live and die by the every day market moves, your mental health will suffer. You'll also end up with high blood pressure and die before retirement - seen it a few times with coworkers who live and die by the daily ups and downs of their job.

Cutting out shortly after the open today to head to Hyde Park to see Pearl Jam tonight w/ Pixies opening. You think I'll be checking the markets???? HELL NO