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24,642,630 Views | 233293 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Out of my calls. I probably cut that short, but I'm trying to take profits early with the high volatility these days. I hope it keeps running.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Tue could have been a rdr on ttd
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I think TSLA is about to rip again, but I'm not going to get back in.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:

I think TSLA is about to rip again, but I'm not going to get back in.

There it was. How could I have known this setup would go, whereas most have cut short? Am I missing something? I feel like when I let it all ride it reverses and my trade goes red to green, but when I take profits it continues to hit my target. Maybe I should start taking some profits on a portion of the contracts so I can profit if it runs further but protect myself if it goes red?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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The opening move on MSFT was muted, compared to SPX and QQQ, but it's still over 50-day. If we hold over the 50 does that mean it runs more later today or continues relative weakness?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I just bought 3 TSLA 690P. I'll try to scalp down to the middle of the channel.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:

I just bought 3 TSLA 690P. I'll try to scalp down to the middle of the channel.

Not working out well so far. It looks like SPX bouncing off the intraday 10sma. If so I'll close this out as a small loss. If we get down to that channel midpoint or test opening price this will be a good little trade.
LMCane
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Diggity said:

doesn't seem like something CNBC would be signing off on

NBC, a bastion of honesty and integrity. Yeah my scenario isn't likely, but as consistently bad as his takes have been the past couple of years there's got to be something else to this.
you should check out Youtubers who give out investing advice.

numerous have been fined for pumping and dumping small stocks.

Meet Kevin was pretty bad at this.
sts7049
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AG
i bought a handful of TSLA 715Cs to start the week at 3.6.

sold half at 9, some at 13, some at 14.1. that was a good trade
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
I must have missed it when you called that one out!
BaylorSpineGuy
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Almost every ticker green. Feels like 2021 again. Weird.
sts7049
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AG
my lotto for tomorrow is NIO 21P. complete gamble, going for a quick scalp. just thinking there will be a little pullback to take advantage of.
Brewmaster
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AG
MARA looks like accumulation time, big buys

sorry if this is a sore topic!
Ragoo
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AG
When do we fade the move?
BenRev09
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AG
BREwmaster said:

MARA looks like accumulation time, big buys

sorry if this is a sore topic!
at least you didn't say NILE (formerly DPW)
sts7049
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AG
interesting pattern here with TSLA on the daily

Txducker
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AG
Market does feel bullish as others have stated. Most bullish I have felt in a while. Not bullish enough to go all in on my long term retirement accounts that have trading restrictions, but good trading opportunity in other accounts. QQQ Monthly chart far below 5 ema and reverting to mean and bounced off bottom BBand and low rsi. Weekly 5 ema turning positive and has been closing above the bottom linear regression line. Daily has had the 5 and 10 ema cross and above the 21 ema. Is this just the calm before the storm with earnings coming up at the end of the month? Up this month and down next month maybe?
Levels to clear
295 week 10 ema (lots of call buying at this level for friday exp
296.58 prev week high
297.25 50 sma and 61.8% fib from 6/2 high
302.90 daily upper bband
303.24 75% fib 6/2 high

0708 expiry: 290p highest open interest lots of 299 and 288. I don't think we trade below those levels for sure by friday.
good call volume on 295 highest, and 300.
0715 expiry has 100k oi on the 300p, lots of bullish put sellers
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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If you haven't checked lately

Crude $103.94 / +$5.41

Quote:

Russia shuts down crude oil down pipeline for 30 days. This is chess move #1, this should get real interesting if Europe and US are successful with price cap strategy.

Kazakhstan's president called for diversifying the country's oil supply routes, a day after a Russian court suspended operations on a major export pipeline.

The comments by Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev on July 7 highlighted Kazakh worries about getting its oil--which is a major source of government revenue--out to world markets. It also underscored potential tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia, whose relationship has turned *****ly amid the Russian war against Ukraine.

Around 80 percent of Kazakhstan's oil exports flow via the Caspian Pipeline to the terminal in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk.
In a nutshell,...EIA report today shows crude build (typically happens on July 4th week as no trucks are moving products) expected. Refined products reduced.

Again, if you remove the SPR releases, the S&D is short. There is no fundamental reason why oil futures or O&G stocks should be at discounted levels with, or without, recession and inflation.

The significance to the quoted story above,...if that pipeline shuts down for 30 days, it's the equivalent of the SPR releases. It's an offset.

Again, without the SPR releases today, there is no build - it's a deficit Plug in the pipeline event, the EIA reports will start to show the drawdown. It's bullish oil and O&G stocks.

Why FJB is draining the SPR is mind numbing and more spectacular is, part of those SPR releases are going to China. How effing stupid is this guy? If FJB increases the volume of the SPR releases, we have a National Security Risk....today we have the potential. Appears the Russians see it that way too and hitting the airwaves with it as of yesterday.

ETA: Forgot to mention...the Russians appear to want Alaska back, not kidding.
Txducker
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AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:


Again, without the SPR releases today, there is no build - it's a deficit Plug in the pipeline event, the EIA reports will start to show the drawdown. It's bullish oil and O&G stocks.

Why FJB is draining the SPR is mind numbing and more spectacular is, part of those SPR releases are going to China. How effing stupid is this guy? If FJB increases the volume of the SPR releases, we have a National Security Risk....today we have the potential. Appears the Russians see it that way too and hitting the airwaves with it as of yesterday.

ETA: Forgot to mention...the Russians appear to want Alaska back, not kidding.
Thanks for the update. Bought XOM yesterday and have been following your energy sector posts. It is not a expertise of mine, so I appreciate the updates!!!
BaylorSpineGuy
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Agree! Farmer's drum banging was getting loud and when I saw that GUSH chart throwing a reversal this week, I jumped in yesterday and swung a 65% gain overnight. Cheers!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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You're welcome!

In my career, you were trained in S&D analysis. Actually brain-washed with S&D analysis. I may not be able to read a financial statement like a seasoned accountant, but I can torture an S&D until it gives up the truth.

Sometimes the S&D can be so supportive of a position (long or short) and the market takes the opposite side, it happens and you end up losing. In this case, the opposite side is obliterated. Even should the Russian/Ukraine war end, the S&D does not change. Structurally, the CAPEX was not spent by energy companies over the last 2.5 years to keep up with basic growing demand. Fossil fuel companies aren't going to spend CAPEX to improve the situation when this Administration is trying to kill them off. If Blackrock and Soro's are on the other side of this, I hope they take a hit.

***I hold a concern over the SPR being drained.***

I hold a concern over the numbers that are being reported by EIA and IEA. USDA taught me over the last 7 years that what they report isn't always so...to the point that they go back and adjust 2 year old numbers to make current numbers appear legit. It wasn't always this way..
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Man if I had sold on the June bounce and re-bought the UPRO/TQQQ dip I'd be rolling in it right now.

Still, nice to get back to those levels.
sts7049
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AG
make sure you lock in this time
wanderer
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BrokeAssAggie
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little dip before we rip again..
ProgN
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Non-farm payroll number is released tomorrow morning. I expect profit taking before the close.
BrokeAssAggie
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ProgN said:

Non-farm payroll number is released tomorrow morning. I expect profit taking before the close.
Lake08
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Glad the green wave this week. What makes me just shake my head is there is zero reason for this. Pure gambling and manipulation.
sts7049
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AG
zero reason?
Brewmaster
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AG
Lake08 said:

Glad the green wave this week. What makes me just shake my head is there is zero reason for this. Pure gambling and manipulation.
there never needs to be a reason. the markets will usually do what hurts the most and even a bear market can rally.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Lake08 said:

Glad the green wave this week. What makes me just shake my head is there is zero reason for this. Pure gambling and manipulation.
You don't understand stock markets, do you?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
FJ43
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FJ43 said:

What's happening Gents! Reading the thread each night but haven't posted much. Miss y'all and playing in the sandbox with ya. Trading each week but hard to post so don't want anyone to risk not being able to manage the trades if I did.

Doing my nightly chart check ups and scans.

Trend lines and SRs have been drawn for a while. Interesting ping pong. Added a few arrows for y'all to keep an eye on.

We are still bear flagging and in a downtrend so be careful getting giddy to the upside until it confirms. Traders market IMO.




So what did y'all do? Level to level. Now……


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Bonfire1996 -

*** VLO ***

July 6th may have been your low.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/refiner-valeros-board-oks-25-billion-share-buyback-2022-07-07?mod=mw_latestnews
Spoony Love
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AG
Looks like we could be in for chop tomorrow unless bulls go on parade and take to the next level. With the steam from today I could see that happening. Job numbers tomorrow will be important in the direction I think.

Good: next level up
Bad: chop to stay in your yellow channel.
"Unexpected": to the bottom of the yellow channel.

That's my expectation tomorrow.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I think we are probably going to have a pull back or a correction in time.

indexes are overbought. There could be a push to ~3950, but I'd have a foot by the exit.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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