I miss my 30's anything.Red Pear DFW Luke said:
Well fellas - Big Update
I finally have built a brand new PC Desktop thanks to a friend with an awesome graphics card. So I am sadly going to be retiring my 2013 Macbook Pro that I've used to mainly look at yahoo finance and watch CNBC online cause Fidelity Active Trader Pro stopped working a few years ago on it.
I feel like I've come of age now being able to see charts and tickers on a 27" screen vs my 11" macbook screen. My 30 something year old eyes are thanking me as I type.
I'll leave yall with an interesting article about the state of the economy and potential trends - namely the increased inventories at Walmarts and Targets where they are higher than they figured. I'm wondering if that combined with the exotic lady tweets shows a better indicator. All I know I've gotten so incredibly bearish lately. Not winning deals with my clients. Rates are rising. Layoffs are rising....
My wife and I almost bought a house in College Station on the premise that if we're gonna be stuck somewhere cause Rece$$ion, I'd rater it be in God's Country near my parents and hers. Thank goodness I married a nurse.
People don't want a job because wages can't keep up with inflation. The Fed has to crash the economy to battle inflation, so layoffs are coming. If you read numerous news sources they've already began. Stagflation is definitely in the cards which is very bad.texagbeliever said:
I wonder if the inventory problems are related to the Old Navy blunder. Another words Walmart and target stocking a bunch of products in the name of equity and finding out demand is not there. Would expect that more so of target than Walmart.
What makes me think it could be that rather than signs of recession is that we are still in an employee market. Jobs are there to be had. Only thing people might hate more than a job is not being able to buy stuff. Yeah inflation is real and could be a bigger factor than im accounting for.
You're correct. If Biden would remove the stick for the O&G industry, then supply would increase and drive down the cost of everything. However he can't because he's beholden to the progressives.Philip J Fry said:
I feel like I need to be in crazy pills. Isn't this simply caused by high gas prices? Fix this and you fix 90% of what's wrong in the economy?
And it appears that Brandon is staying true to his word during the second debate that he was phase oil out of existence?
I think we would really have to know their hedged position to know how much exposure they have to market prices. I would suspect that XOM tried to hedge out a significant part of their portfolio to lock in earnings and reduce EPS variance. Since volatility is generally punished in the stock price. Now do I think XOM or others are locked in out past 2022 no. So I'd expect they have layered in hedges in 2023 & 2024 that will generate higher EPS assuming they can control their labor costs.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Agree with the general sentiment but both XOM and CVX missed their EPS recently with prices at near ATH's.
This suggests that it's not purely a cost of gas issue to me.
Did they really miss, or were they being conservative? The House is proposing a bill to make an increase of gas prices illegal, which is asinine.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Agree with the general sentiment but both XOM and CVX missed their EPS recently with prices at near ATH's.
This suggests that it's not purely a cost of gas issue to me.
Soon the issue will be the NEED to work rather than is working adding to the quality of life. Once that question changes it won't be whether wages are keeping up with inflation, but whether the wages will allow a person to get by. There are a handful of positive feedback mechanisms that will soften the fall in my opinion.ProgN said:People don't want a job because wages can't keep up with inflation. The Fed has to crash the economy to battle inflation, so layoffs are coming. If you read numerous news sources they've already began. Stagflation is definitely in the cards which is very bad.texagbeliever said:
I wonder if the inventory problems are related to the Old Navy blunder. Another words Walmart and target stocking a bunch of products in the name of equity and finding out demand is not there. Would expect that more so of target than Walmart.
What makes me think it could be that rather than signs of recession is that we are still in an employee market. Jobs are there to be had. Only thing people might hate more than a job is not being able to buy stuff. Yeah inflation is real and could be a bigger factor than im accounting for.
AgPT06 said:
Seasonal and teen workers are getting harder and harder to get. It was already getting that way prepandemic but now getting to be near impossible. I live in New Braunfels and the city has had to pause on opening camps and the pools bc of lack of seasonal staff. Feeling old saying this but teens just don't want to or have to work anymore. Schlitterbahn struggling bc they rely on seasonal workers from other countries. Some of which shut off during pandemic and now less visas being issued for them (this is rumor, I can't say as fact). The pretzels, not sure on that. Maybe Levy is their supplier? (I know you are a Baylor grad, so may not catch that one, but that is who supplies our concessions and they always are out of staples by end of first quarter)
This is what the fed wants but stagflation is in the cards.texagbeliever said:Soon the issue will be the NEED to work rather than is working adding to the quality of life. Once that question changes it won't be whether wages are keeping up with inflation, but whether the wages will allow a person to get by. There are a handful of positive feedback mechanisms that will soften the fall in my opinion.ProgN said:People don't want a job because wages can't keep up with inflation. The Fed has to crash the economy to battle inflation, so layoffs are coming. If you read numerous news sources they've already began. Stagflation is definitely in the cards which is very bad.texagbeliever said:
I wonder if the inventory problems are related to the Old Navy blunder. Another words Walmart and target stocking a bunch of products in the name of equity and finding out demand is not there. Would expect that more so of target than Walmart.
What makes me think it could be that rather than signs of recession is that we are still in an employee market. Jobs are there to be had. Only thing people might hate more than a job is not being able to buy stuff. Yeah inflation is real and could be a bigger factor than im accounting for.
Another positive feedback mechanism is that as a recession sets in demand for oil & gas will drop. Here and oversees. Additionally the pressure to limit exports will start as well. The decreased demand and potential increase in supply should shift the price down. This will slow or decrease inflation.
they had to sell. The Henry family only owns the south Padre park and they had to rebrand it. Sad deal all around.XXXVII said:AgPT06 said:
Seasonal and teen workers are getting harder and harder to get. It was already getting that way prepandemic but now getting to be near impossible. I live in New Braunfels and the city has had to pause on opening camps and the pools bc of lack of seasonal staff. Feeling old saying this but teens just don't want to or have to work anymore. Schlitterbahn struggling bc they rely on seasonal workers from other countries. Some of which shut off during pandemic and now less visas being issued for them (this is rumor, I can't say as fact). The pretzels, not sure on that. Maybe Levy is their supplier? (I know you are a Baylor grad, so may not catch that one, but that is who supplies our concessions and they always are out of staples by end of first quarter)
Schlitterbahn can rot and go out of business after that 10 year old kid was decapitated on one of their rides. They deserve it.
Thanks doc. He was the person I was alluding to when you were asking about recommendations to take your family hiking. I was planning on asking him for his recs and get you two in contact when you were asking about where to take your family for hiking and beautiful scenery.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Sorry for your loss, Prog.
Cant' speak to CVX, but I should since I own it. .... As for XOM, this last quarter was a kitchen sink quarter. They didn't miss, under normal circumstances they would have reported $3.24 to $3.40, but they suppressed earnings with everything they could throw in the sink PLUS a $5 billion loss in "hedging" and a 40% tax rate versus 28% last quarter and the divesture of the Russian deal. A $5 billion hedge loss can generally tank a company, let that sink in. All I can say is, next quarter (maybe the next 3 quarters) will be a blowout. XOM has $11 billion in cash, tripled their stock buyback to $30 billion. Further, these guys have to self finance, because the current Administration doesn't like Big Oils carbon footprint and told Big Banks to not loan to Big Oil. Since Big Banks won't loan money to Big Oil, Big Oil is going to show this Administration that this country still runs on fossil fuels. I want $10 per gallon gas, LFG! By the time 2Q results are announced in August, Congress will be on vacation in July, and returning in August only to focus on Mid-Term re-election. Congress will not be focused on a Big Oil Windfall Tax. XOM will report big numbers in 2Q and Wall Street will cheer with a muffled roar. XOM has nothing left to offset big numbers unless they plan another Russian, or like country, write-off. I am very proud of the restraint Big Oil has used to combat the attack this Administration is waging against them. Now,...if agriculture could only follow this example..BaylorSpineGuy said:
Agree with the general sentiment but both XOM and CVX missed their EPS recently with prices at near ATH's.
This suggests that it's not purely a cost of gas issue to me.
Thank you all for your support.irish pete ag06 said:
So sorry for the loss ProgN.
