Business & Investing
Sponsored by

Stock Markets

24,640,213 Views | 233293 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Heineken-Ashi
BaylorSpineGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Spent the afternoon at Six Flags. I know most schools have another week to go but this place was maybe 30% of usual capacity. My wife tried to buy a pretzel for my daughter….they had none.

Several popular rides were closed….not enough workers? These effects of recession?
BrokeAssAggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Be thankful. I get to go see downton abby tonight
AgPT06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Seasonal and teen workers are getting harder and harder to get. It was already getting that way prepandemic but now getting to be near impossible. I live in New Braunfels and the city has had to pause on opening camps and the pools bc of lack of seasonal staff. Feeling old saying this but teens just don't want to or have to work anymore. Schlitterbahn struggling bc they rely on seasonal workers from other countries. Some of which shut off during pandemic and now less visas being issued for them (this is rumor, I can't say as fact). The pretzels, not sure on that. Maybe Levy is their supplier? (I know you are a Baylor grad, so may not catch that one, but that is who supplies our concessions and they always are out of staples by end of first quarter)
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sponsor
AG
Well fellas - Big Update


I finally have built a brand new PC Desktop thanks to a friend with an awesome graphics card. So I am sadly going to be retiring my 2013 Macbook Pro that I've used to mainly look at yahoo finance and watch CNBC online cause Fidelity Active Trader Pro stopped working a few years ago on it.

I feel like I've come of age now being able to see charts and tickers on a 27" screen vs my 11" macbook screen. My 30 something year old eyes are thanking me as I type.

I'll leave yall with an interesting article about the state of the economy and potential trends - namely the increased inventories at Walmarts and Targets where they are higher than they figured. I'm wondering if that combined with the exotic lady tweets shows a better indicator. All I know I've gotten so incredibly bearish lately. Not winning deals with my clients. Rates are rising. Layoffs are rising....

My wife and I almost bought a house in College Station on the premise that if we're gonna be stuck somewhere cause Rece$$ion, I'd rater it be in God's Country near my parents and hers. Thank goodness I married a nurse.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sponsor
AG
First screen shot of new Active Trader Pro


ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Red Pear DFW Luke said:

Well fellas - Big Update


I finally have built a brand new PC Desktop thanks to a friend with an awesome graphics card. So I am sadly going to be retiring my 2013 Macbook Pro that I've used to mainly look at yahoo finance and watch CNBC online cause Fidelity Active Trader Pro stopped working a few years ago on it.

I feel like I've come of age now being able to see charts and tickers on a 27" screen vs my 11" macbook screen. My 30 something year old eyes are thanking me as I type.

I'll leave yall with an interesting article about the state of the economy and potential trends - namely the increased inventories at Walmarts and Targets where they are higher than they figured. I'm wondering if that combined with the exotic lady tweets shows a better indicator. All I know I've gotten so incredibly bearish lately. Not winning deals with my clients. Rates are rising. Layoffs are rising....

My wife and I almost bought a house in College Station on the premise that if we're gonna be stuck somewhere cause Rece$$ion, I'd rater it be in God's Country near my parents and hers. Thank goodness I married a nurse.
I miss my 30's anything.
texagbeliever
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I wonder if the inventory problems are related to the Old Navy blunder. Another words Walmart and target stocking a bunch of products in the name of equity and finding out demand is not there. Would expect that more so of target than Walmart.

What makes me think it could be that rather than signs of recession is that we are still in an employee market. Jobs are there to be had. Only thing people might hate more than a job is not being able to buy stuff. Yeah inflation is real and could be a bigger factor than im accounting for.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
texagbeliever said:

I wonder if the inventory problems are related to the Old Navy blunder. Another words Walmart and target stocking a bunch of products in the name of equity and finding out demand is not there. Would expect that more so of target than Walmart.

What makes me think it could be that rather than signs of recession is that we are still in an employee market. Jobs are there to be had. Only thing people might hate more than a job is not being able to buy stuff. Yeah inflation is real and could be a bigger factor than im accounting for.
People don't want a job because wages can't keep up with inflation. The Fed has to crash the economy to battle inflation, so layoffs are coming. If you read numerous news sources they've already began. Stagflation is definitely in the cards which is very bad.
BaylorSpineGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
This is the way.

That's what I was alluding to with my Six Flags comment. They didn't have basic concessions (one of their big moneymakers) and it wasn't due to volume parking was less than half as full as usual when we have gone. Very concerning for a stagflation type environment less GDP and higher prices. A malignant combination.

They didn't have chips or pretzels. They had a handful of bottled waters.

The Fed may not have to crash the economy though price of gas alone may do it. It's caused us to rethink our summer plans, and we're doing alright financially. Other families on a more strict budget are gonna be leveled with gas at these prices.

The market may indeed rally this week but it may be more of a technical retrace as opposed to an economic recovery.
Philip J Fry
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I feel like I need to be in crazy pills. Isn't this simply caused by high gas prices? Fix this and you fix 90% of what's wrong in the economy?

And it appears that Brandon is staying true to his word during the second debate that he was phase oil out of existence?
utah, get me two
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Good news boys, Cramer isn't optimistic. Bottom is in
BaylorSpineGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I'm not sure it's as simple as that. Cost of everything has gone up a function of money printing.

Gas prices are a function of this it costs more to get it out of the ground, more to ship, etc. wages have had to go up as well. Inflation is malignant to a healthy economy.

Remember…..chip shortages have been going on for at least 6-9 months now. This far predates the cost of rising gas prices. This is a systemic issue.

People have alluded that chip shortages will begin to improve in late 2023. So that's my estimated timeline for the end of this recession. No idea of that will correlate to the market bottom, tho. But when chip shortages resolve, other industries relying them (most industries now!) will see relief as well. It may also take the Fed that long to get inflation dialed back in anyway.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Philip J Fry said:

I feel like I need to be in crazy pills. Isn't this simply caused by high gas prices? Fix this and you fix 90% of what's wrong in the economy?

And it appears that Brandon is staying true to his word during the second debate that he was phase oil out of existence?
You're correct. If Biden would remove the stick for the O&G industry, then supply would increase and drive down the cost of everything. However he can't because he's beholden to the progressives.
BaylorSpineGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Agree with the general sentiment but both XOM and CVX missed their EPS recently with prices at near ATH's.

This suggests that it's not purely a cost of gas issue to me.
texagbeliever
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Agree with the general sentiment but both XOM and CVX missed their EPS recently with prices at near ATH's.

This suggests that it's not purely a cost of gas issue to me.
I think we would really have to know their hedged position to know how much exposure they have to market prices. I would suspect that XOM tried to hedge out a significant part of their portfolio to lock in earnings and reduce EPS variance. Since volatility is generally punished in the stock price. Now do I think XOM or others are locked in out past 2022 no. So I'd expect they have layered in hedges in 2023 & 2024 that will generate higher EPS assuming they can control their labor costs.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Agree with the general sentiment but both XOM and CVX missed their EPS recently with prices at near ATH's.

This suggests that it's not purely a cost of gas issue to me.
Did they really miss, or were they being conservative? The House is proposing a bill to make an increase of gas prices illegal, which is asinine.

Everything you touch in stores is affected by the price of diesel. You remove the artificial restraints that dumbass dems put on them then supply will increase and drive all costs lower. We're in a created crisis and we're all suffering because of a lack of leadership.
texagbeliever
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ProgN said:

texagbeliever said:

I wonder if the inventory problems are related to the Old Navy blunder. Another words Walmart and target stocking a bunch of products in the name of equity and finding out demand is not there. Would expect that more so of target than Walmart.

What makes me think it could be that rather than signs of recession is that we are still in an employee market. Jobs are there to be had. Only thing people might hate more than a job is not being able to buy stuff. Yeah inflation is real and could be a bigger factor than im accounting for.
People don't want a job because wages can't keep up with inflation. The Fed has to crash the economy to battle inflation, so layoffs are coming. If you read numerous news sources they've already began. Stagflation is definitely in the cards which is very bad.
Soon the issue will be the NEED to work rather than is working adding to the quality of life. Once that question changes it won't be whether wages are keeping up with inflation, but whether the wages will allow a person to get by. There are a handful of positive feedback mechanisms that will soften the fall in my opinion.

Another positive feedback mechanism is that as a recession sets in demand for oil & gas will drop. Here and oversees. Additionally the pressure to limit exports will start as well. The decreased demand and potential increase in supply should shift the price down. This will slow or decrease inflation.
Madmarttigan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Any positive news or are the futures just doing their usual artificial pump before the opening drain? Don't see much other than Shanghai easing a few COVID restrictions on public transport. I would feel better about the markets taking a breather this if we broke above and held 395 tomorrow.
sts7049
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
per Mancini, Friday was a fake breakdown, so next target is upward as long as we hold 3850ish
Philip J Fry
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Why would over sea shipping costs effect our price of gasoline if we drilled our own oil?
XXXVII
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AgPT06 said:

Seasonal and teen workers are getting harder and harder to get. It was already getting that way prepandemic but now getting to be near impossible. I live in New Braunfels and the city has had to pause on opening camps and the pools bc of lack of seasonal staff. Feeling old saying this but teens just don't want to or have to work anymore. Schlitterbahn struggling bc they rely on seasonal workers from other countries. Some of which shut off during pandemic and now less visas being issued for them (this is rumor, I can't say as fact). The pretzels, not sure on that. Maybe Levy is their supplier? (I know you are a Baylor grad, so may not catch that one, but that is who supplies our concessions and they always are out of staples by end of first quarter)


Schlitterbahn can rot and go out of business after that 10 year old kid was decapitated on one of their rides. They deserve it.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
texagbeliever said:

ProgN said:

texagbeliever said:

I wonder if the inventory problems are related to the Old Navy blunder. Another words Walmart and target stocking a bunch of products in the name of equity and finding out demand is not there. Would expect that more so of target than Walmart.

What makes me think it could be that rather than signs of recession is that we are still in an employee market. Jobs are there to be had. Only thing people might hate more than a job is not being able to buy stuff. Yeah inflation is real and could be a bigger factor than im accounting for.
People don't want a job because wages can't keep up with inflation. The Fed has to crash the economy to battle inflation, so layoffs are coming. If you read numerous news sources they've already began. Stagflation is definitely in the cards which is very bad.
Soon the issue will be the NEED to work rather than is working adding to the quality of life. Once that question changes it won't be whether wages are keeping up with inflation, but whether the wages will allow a person to get by. There are a handful of positive feedback mechanisms that will soften the fall in my opinion.

Another positive feedback mechanism is that as a recession sets in demand for oil & gas will drop. Here and oversees. Additionally the pressure to limit exports will start as well. The decreased demand and potential increase in supply should shift the price down. This will slow or decrease inflation.
This is what the fed wants but stagflation is in the cards.

I'm sorry but I can't contribute anything meaningful tonight because I was informed this afternoon that a friend of mine died on Friday. Although I never met him in real life, I knew him through TexAgs and other social media sites over several years and we all talked about meeting up. He was a great husband, father and Ag and I feel like I lost a brother today. I'm not at liberty to say who it was because I was asked to keep it off public forums. I'll just say he was way too young and I feel like I was punched in the gut. Just hug your children, spouse and say I love you on the phone every time you speak with someone like that because you just never know the future.
Ragoo
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
XXXVII said:

AgPT06 said:

Seasonal and teen workers are getting harder and harder to get. It was already getting that way prepandemic but now getting to be near impossible. I live in New Braunfels and the city has had to pause on opening camps and the pools bc of lack of seasonal staff. Feeling old saying this but teens just don't want to or have to work anymore. Schlitterbahn struggling bc they rely on seasonal workers from other countries. Some of which shut off during pandemic and now less visas being issued for them (this is rumor, I can't say as fact). The pretzels, not sure on that. Maybe Levy is their supplier? (I know you are a Baylor grad, so may not catch that one, but that is who supplies our concessions and they always are out of staples by end of first quarter)


Schlitterbahn can rot and go out of business after that 10 year old kid was decapitated on one of their rides. They deserve it.
they had to sell. The Henry family only owns the south Padre park and they had to rebrand it. Sad deal all around.
BaylorSpineGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Well I'm not in the O&G industry but my FIL is. He sells motors in Houston area.

Siemens is one of his biggest suppliers and the motors they buy from Siemens are shipped across seas. Normal turnaround time is 3-4 wks, now pushed out to 5-6 months.

So those parts are shipped across seas (and those same motors are the ones used for drilling in West Texas and other areas including the Texas/LA coast). Some companies they buy from build motors stateside but some products come from abroad and are subject to overseas shipping costs. Those companies also get parts from China guess what, those get shipped too.

That's not a lure answer or the one you're looking for, but we can't distill this down to a left-right issue purely.

I'm no Biden apologist (have never cast one Blue vote in my life!), and the current Dem strategy to demonize and vilify O&G industry is both politically stupid and economically suicidal, but Biden simply caught a hot potato.

This problem is federal spending, loose monetary policy, and a slow to react Fed. This has been made worse by Democrat attempts to kill O&G while bending the knee to the green movement, but it's a bit more complicated than that I think.
BaylorSpineGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sorry for your loss, Prog.
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Sorry for your loss, Prog.
Thanks doc. He was the person I was alluding to when you were asking about recommendations to take your family hiking. I was planning on asking him for his recs and get you two in contact when you were asking about where to take your family for hiking and beautiful scenery.
FJ43
How long do you want to ignore this user?
So sorry to hear this Prog. I'll be lifting prayers this evening for his family during this very difficult time. Be strong my brother.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

texagbeliever
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sorry to hear ProgN. Prayers for the individuals family and friends.
spud1910
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
So sorry to hear Prog. His family, and you, will be in my prayers.
$30,000 Millionaire
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Terrible news. Tomorrow is never guaranteed.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
irish pete ag06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
So sorry for the loss ProgN.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Agree with the general sentiment but both XOM and CVX missed their EPS recently with prices at near ATH's.

This suggests that it's not purely a cost of gas issue to me.
Cant' speak to CVX, but I should since I own it. .... As for XOM, this last quarter was a kitchen sink quarter. They didn't miss, under normal circumstances they would have reported $3.24 to $3.40, but they suppressed earnings with everything they could throw in the sink PLUS a $5 billion loss in "hedging" and a 40% tax rate versus 28% last quarter and the divesture of the Russian deal. A $5 billion hedge loss can generally tank a company, let that sink in. All I can say is, next quarter (maybe the next 3 quarters) will be a blowout. XOM has $11 billion in cash, tripled their stock buyback to $30 billion. Further, these guys have to self finance, because the current Administration doesn't like Big Oils carbon footprint and told Big Banks to not loan to Big Oil. Since Big Banks won't loan money to Big Oil, Big Oil is going to show this Administration that this country still runs on fossil fuels. I want $10 per gallon gas, LFG! By the time 2Q results are announced in August, Congress will be on vacation in July, and returning in August only to focus on Mid-Term re-election. Congress will not be focused on a Big Oil Windfall Tax. XOM will report big numbers in 2Q and Wall Street will cheer with a muffled roar. XOM has nothing left to offset big numbers unless they plan another Russian, or like country, write-off. I am very proud of the restraint Big Oil has used to combat the attack this Administration is waging against them. Now,...if agriculture could only follow this example..

ETA 10:19pm: Analysts are hesitant to upgrade this stock....I'm not kidding. What a laugher. That's real political fear.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
How long do you want to ignore this user?
T&P ProgN
ProgN
How long do you want to ignore this user?
irish pete ag06 said:

So sorry for the loss ProgN.
Thank you all for your support.

Someone already posted the news on the outdoors board so I'm not violating any trust. His handle on TexAgs was MTN_Guide, class of '01. He used to post on F16 a lot until an evil dick doxxed him and tried to destroy his business. He decided to leave TA because he had no desire to do the same to them, he was a better man than I. He has a young daughter that he always said was his best accomplishment. The world lost a good man Friday.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I think I remember that handle. Was he the fellow in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, with a outdoor guide biz? (Maybe I'm confusing 2 TexAgs posters)
First Page Last Page
Page 5451 of 6666
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.