Wild Ride In Treasuries Overnight...Crushed and Reversed...5/30 Inverted 2006
It was a wild ride in treasuries overnight, as well as seeing the Japanese Yen crushed and more of the China Shutdown... While it may not look like it to those watching the screens at the moment, we saw 5 years go FROM 2.52 TO 2.67 and now back to 2.56... 10 years FROM 2.44 TO 2.553 and now back to 2.46...2 years to 2.41, now back to 2.31... And long bonds to 2.64, now back to 2.57... The 5/30 curve INVERTED FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2006... We wonder how many bond people have never seen a 5/30 inversion as well as a full fledged bond bear market.
Asia... Not looking good for either Japan or China... The MOF is the last strong hold of QE and they will not give up... Their intransigence toward rates is crushing their currency, which is something they may want... We said if 122 dollar yen broke ,the door was open all the way to 1.50, it is currently 124, after hitting 125 overnight... China shut down more of their country, which has the double effect of making the supply chain worse on the negative, but sending oil prices lower on the positive. We see WTI down 5.5%... Our friends up north are starting to see gas prices lower... It is still about the same in Texas, 3.75-3.99.
Equities... Do not seem to care where treasury rates are going... And only care on how credit spreads are holding up... Corporate treasurers, to their advantage, have refinanced a good chunk of paper in 2021 and early 2022... IG is better today and within its recent range... We see HY out 23, but that includes a rebalancing... But we do not sense panic in the credit bond space as of yet... Liquidity remains poor...Equities bottomed overnight at 2.10 am and then have rallied up 32 points for the S+P, currently up 10. The S+P and Nasdaq have had a strong two weeks up 8.8 and 13% respectively... We have tried to emphasize that major Fed meetings, like March 16, are crucial for trend changes... And we have said the same thing for May 4...
Month end and quarter end reallocations will be a big event on Thursday...with unemployment looming Friday.. Remember it is also Japan year end... Where it used to be a big deal when we were at Nomura... Not so much now being at a regional.
Government bonds are on pace for their WORST YEAR SINCE 1949. According to Barron's, investors are looking for other places to invest money and those that do not have access to venture capital are allocating to equities... This will end at some point, but it is the current trend...Equities LIKE THE IDEA THAT THE FED IS FIGHTING INFLATION... BOND VIGILANTES ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LACK OF FED INTERVENTION.... The Bank America Bull and Bear Indicator fell to EXTREME BEARISH for the first time since March 2020, you know what that means..
On Friday, we told you Citi upped their Fed increases to the next 4 meetings at 50 basis and then 25 for the remaining meetings... That was the reason for the sell off Friday.. Now Bank America has come out with a forecast that the Fed will keep raising rates until they hit 3-3.25% range... ... Expect pressure today as the Treasury auctions both 50 billion of 2 years and 51 billion of 5 years... Treasury liquidity is not good... And kudos to a Bank America strategist who predicted a yield curve flatter than a pancake... He had 2.25 across the board, looks more like 2.50... Bernstein was in Barron's saying the FAIR VALUE OF 10 YEARS IS 3.7%... Good luck to that...