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24,996,323 Views | 233765 Replies | Last: 7 min ago by M4 Benelli
Philip J Fry
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AG
Another good EVC day. It's a machine!
Triple_Bagger
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30k might have been a day early on those TSLA puts. Let's see how this plays out tomorrow.


$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
It could gap down bigly. My preferred scenario is gap up and failure.
irish pete ag06
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Knife Wrench said:

irish pete ag06 said:

Gonna start posting my small watchlist here each night for the next day. I've been working on day trading stocks that are coming off of inside days (1 bars for the stratters out there). Idea being you couple this with some flow analysis from unusual whales and play the breakout of the consolidation. Usually try to wait for 2 closes on the 5min chart outside of the previous day's range for confirmation before taking the play.

First one on my list is SOFI
SOFI Ask Side flow super bullish $3k premium... especially the NOV 5 strikes.


Here's the triggers (in yellow) levels with Target 1 and 2 (in blue)


SOFI is coming off double inside days actually so this thing is wound up really tight.


Edit to say that based on the super bullish flow, I like calls better than puts here. I do think if this thing breaks to the downside it will bounce hard off the $19 support. This might be one you can scalp a put then flip to a call if you get a reversal confirmation at 19 for the ride back up.
$SOFI up 12% today. Nice call with this one. Not in on it, but watched it after reading your great post and appreciate you detailing it out
I freakin missed it due to my day job. But yes it was a solid mover!
Triple_Bagger
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Solid setup. I watched it go without starting a position but I know a few got in and did well. Thanks for sharing.
$30,000 Millionaire
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

It could gap down bigly. My preferred scenario is gap up and failure.


Yup.
cageybee77
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anyone know what's up with TRIT? wow, glad I didn't hold this one.

edit n/m, I see there have been updates asking for an extension from Nasdaq

and a downgrade
gougler08
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AG
It's crazy to me that Hertz buying cars from Tesla made it run like this to begin with, but I guess that's the market right now
austinAG90
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Tuesday Macros.

Global Bond Yield Curves Rally as Australia Blinks on Rate Rises...Fed?

We have seen a 30 basis round-trip in the Australian 5 year the last three trading days as last night the Aussie's blinked and decided not to move ahead with rate increases for now even in the face of soaring inflation... Will the Fed do something similar tomorrow?... We do not think so as they are in different situations, but the front end of treasury curve has an opportunity to rally. As for European 10 years, WB shows a significant rally in EGBs this morning, from 4 basis in Germany to 12 basis in Italy... Carry trades are being put on again...

Fed meeting starts today and ends tomorrow with a presser by Powell at 2.30 which follows their 2 PM announcement... We continue to see more Treasury strategists bring forward rate increases to 2022...GS did it over the weekend moving their first rate increase from July 2023 to July 2022... Bloomberg intelligence made a similar move this morning moving from rate increases to first start in 2023, to now having two in 2022... We tend to agree that rate increases will be brought forward to 2022, but that does not mean that the short end can not rally, as close to three rate increases had been built in as 5 years more than doubled in yield in the last few months.... Lets go through our typical three scenarios for the Fed announcement tomorrow

Scenario 1...Fed tapers with a Dovish tinge... The Fed announces the start of tapering for 11/15 but makes no indication about raising rates at anytime soon... We think this is the more likely scenario, even though their target for employment has been met and inflation remains a significant problem... Our new acronym is REW Rent inflation, Energy inflation and Wage inflation... None are transitory... 5 years, which have held 1.25 for now, could rally to .92 Curve steepens 60%

Scenario 2...Fed tapers with a hawkish tinge..removes transitory. Still expect tapering to end at the end of June 2022...we do not see an acceleration or shorter tapering period... The Fed emphasizes the higher inflation and says they will do what they have to do when the time is necessary... Expectations move to the GS area of a rate rise in July of 2022... 5 years hit our second support of 1.31 and 1.76 10 years... Curve flattens 30%

Scenario 3... Fed does not taper or at least moves it to the December time frame... Waits to see the employment number on Friday...then we have two moves, a Fed policy mistake move after a rally and yield curve steepening move... Rate rises are pushed out further... The Fed is scared about raising rates and loses more credibility.. Fed is clearly monetizing the debt and MMT fully being implemented, which it really is anyway... 10%

Overnight the big move is in global rates... Australia is the catalyst... Equities are biding time... S+P futures doing nothing...Russell 2000 had a strong day yesterday and is higher again this morning... The mini melt-up is moving to small caps, but for how long.

New issue corporates...strong as bull... Over 11 billion priced yesterday led by Amex and JPM... Good demand... We are seeing some widening in corporate spreads, but demand remains solid...

Our expectation remains that the bigger move trend starts Thursday morning when London opens and the immediate move after the Powell presser should be faded... Bond volatility is rising while equity volatility is doing very little... The two should face off... And when it does expect some type of equity correction... But we look forward to maximum stress right before the employment number on Friday, which as of now we are taking the over.
Max Stonetrail
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SPY really struggled with 460 yesterday. It opened above but quickly gave it up. It's a little above it this morning. I got out right at the close. I think it could repeat yesterday's weakness and mostly flat trading. There is no real catalyst either way.

TSLA short worked yesterday, but I can't begin to speculate on this one. It's kind of in the middle of the huge range it traded yesterday.
RenoAg
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PROG trade is dead?
gougler08
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AG
RenoAg said:

PROG trade is dead?
I took off my last runners yesterday
McInnis 03
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Watch JPM, BOA, C, and other bank option flows. If there is a leak from the FOMC meetings that indicate November taper start, I think you'll see call flow in the banks with near time expiry. Just a hunch....
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
McInnis 03
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9100 contracts of TSLA 2024 2000c's hvae crossed this AM......at $18,500+ ea.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Freefall on FTCH to the 20-SMA and then bounce. Really weird low volume. Maybe someone taking profit after it closed above $40 yesterday and sold into no liquidity?
FTAG 2000
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McInnis 03 said:

Watch JPM, BOA, C, and other bank option flows. If there is a leak from the FOMC meetings that indicate November taper start, I think you'll see call flow in the banks with near time expiry. Just a hunch....
Would volume in XLF show this too?
McInnis 03
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AG
WTF just got into CAR
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
McInnis 03
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AG
Definitely could.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
FTAG 2000
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AG
McInnis 03 said:

WTF just got into CAR
They had great earnings yesterday after the close, but holy F.
FTAG 2000
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Can't remember who called out SNOW last week, but hat tip.

McInnis 03
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AG 2000' said:

McInnis 03 said:

WTF just got into CAR
They had great earnings yesterday after the close, but holy F.
It's gonna halt again.....
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Avis. Whoa.
Touchless
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TRIT getting walloped today. Not reporting their financials on time again and asking for another extension. If they get it, could be a chance for a rebound.
Charismatic Megafauna
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Champ Bailey said:

So LUV has to be a play right? Down to $47 from $56 a month ago.


They're the best airline. I am going to buy December 50C

Up 50% on these already. #30kTrades
FTAG 2000
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HTZZ with a sympathy run off CAR.
sellthefarm
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I just sold some MARA and thinking about flipping the proceeds into WWR. Y'all still accumulating WWR right now???
$30,000 Millionaire
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this avis thing - wow.
agdaddy04
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AG
Are you in it?
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
AG
Anyone still holding OCGN? My flyer is up a very enticing amount to just go ahead and take it and remove all trades related to it off the table...
FTAG 2000
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Red Pear Luke said:

Anyone still holding OCGN? My flyer is up a very enticing amount to just go ahead and take it and remove all trades related to it off the table...
I got out already this morning.

Vote tomorrow, it feels like a sell the news thing.

Good luck.
FTAG 2000
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

this avis thing - wow.

133 for $260 11/19 calls. lol.
Triple_Bagger
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McInnis 03 said:

Watch JPM, BOA, C, and other bank option flows. If there is a leak from the FOMC meetings that indicate November taper start, I think you'll see call flow in the banks with near time expiry. Just a hunch....
JPM, BAC, and GS spiked this morning.
FTAG 2000
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Triple_Bagger said:

McInnis 03 said:

Watch JPM, BOA, C, and other bank option flows. If there is a leak from the FOMC meetings that indicate November taper start, I think you'll see call flow in the banks with near time expiry. Just a hunch....
JPM, BAC, and GS spiked this morning.

XLF is also up, though on lower than normal volume so far.

I bought some $41Cs lottos for Friday earlier. Up 67% already.
McInnis 03
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AG
CAR halt up AGAIN. Now 408.75

490

535

Some fund is blowing up.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
FTAG 2000
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McInnis 03 said:

CAR halt up AGAIN. Now 408.75

490

535

Some fund is blowing up.
Has to be right?
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