Knife Wrench said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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Gonna start posting my small watchlist here each night for the next day. I've been working on day trading stocks that are coming off of inside days (1 bars for the stratters out there). Idea being you couple this with some flow analysis from unusual whales and play the breakout of the consolidation. Usually try to wait for 2 closes on the 5min chart outside of the previous day's range for confirmation before taking the play.

First one on my list is SOFI
SOFI Ask Side flow super bullish $3k premium... especially the NOV 5 strikes.


Here's the triggers (in yellow) levels with Target 1 and 2 (in blue)


SOFI is coming off double inside days actually so this thing is wound up really tight.


Edit to say that based on the super bullish flow, I like calls better than puts here. I do think if this thing breaks to the downside it will bounce hard off the $19 support. This might be one you can scalp a put then flip to a call if you get a reversal confirmation at 19 for the ride back up.

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$SOFI up 12% today. Nice call with this one. Not in on it, but watched it after reading your great post and appreciate you detailing it out

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I freakin missed it due to my day job. But yes it was a solid mover!

Tuesday Macros.

Global Bond Yield Curves Rally as Australia Blinks on Rate Rises...Fed?

We have seen a 30 basis round-trip in the Australian 5 year the last three trading days as last night the Aussie's blinked and decided not to move ahead with rate increases for now even in the face of soaring inflation... Will the Fed do something similar tomorrow?... We do not think so as they are in different situations, but the front end of treasury curve has an opportunity to rally. As for European 10 years, WB shows a significant rally in EGBs this morning, from 4 basis in Germany to 12 basis in Italy... Carry trades are being put on again...

Fed meeting starts today and ends tomorrow with a presser by Powell at 2.30 which follows their 2 PM announcement... We continue to see more Treasury strategists bring forward rate increases to 2022...GS did it over the weekend moving their first rate increase from July 2023 to July 2022... Bloomberg intelligence made a similar move this morning moving from rate increases to first start in 2023, to now having two in 2022... We tend to agree that rate increases will be brought forward to 2022, but that does not mean that the short end can not rally, as close to three rate increases had been built in as 5 years more than doubled in yield in the last few months.... Lets go through our typical three scenarios for the Fed announcement tomorrow

Scenario 1...Fed tapers with a Dovish tinge... The Fed announces the start of tapering for 11/15 but makes no indication about raising rates at anytime soon... We think this is the more likely scenario, even though their target for employment has been met and inflation remains a significant problem... Our new acronym is REW Rent inflation, Energy inflation and Wage inflation... None are transitory... 5 years, which have held 1.25 for now, could rally to .92 Curve steepens 60%

Scenario 2...Fed tapers with a hawkish tinge..removes transitory. Still expect tapering to end at the end of June 2022...we do not see an acceleration or shorter tapering period... The Fed emphasizes the higher inflation and says they will do what they have to do when the time is necessary... Expectations move to the GS area of a rate rise in July of 2022... 5 years hit our second support of 1.31 and 1.76 10 years... Curve flattens 30%

Scenario 3... Fed does not taper or at least moves it to the December time frame... Waits to see the employment number on Friday...then we have two moves, a Fed policy mistake move after a rally and yield curve steepening move... Rate rises are pushed out further... The Fed is scared about raising rates and loses more credibility.. Fed is clearly monetizing the debt and MMT fully being implemented, which it really is anyway... 10%

Overnight the big move is in global rates... Australia is the catalyst... Equities are biding time... S+P futures doing nothing...Russell 2000 had a strong day yesterday and is higher again this morning... The mini melt-up is moving to small caps, but for how long.

New issue corporates...strong as bull... Over 11 billion priced yesterday led by Amex and JPM... Good demand... We are seeing some widening in corporate spreads, but demand remains solid...

Our expectation remains that the bigger move trend starts Thursday morning when London opens and the immediate move after the Powell presser should be faded... Bond volatility is rising while equity volatility is doing very little... The two should face off... And when it does expect some type of equity correction... But we look forward to maximum stress right before the employment number on Friday, which as of now we are taking the over.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Champ Bailey said:

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So LUV has to be a play right? Down to $47 from $56 a month ago.

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They're the best airline. I am going to buy December 50C

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Up 50% on these already. #30kTrades

CAR halt up AGAIN. Now 408.75

490

535

Some fund is blowing up.