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24,039,118 Views | 231645 Replies | Last: 29 min ago by ProgN
Dan Scott
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Listen to the MVIS and earnings call and a presentation from the CEO. This dude can sell. But nothing expected until middle of next year
ProgN
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Dan Scott said:

Listen to the MVIS and earnings call and a presentation from the CEO. This dude can sell. But nothing expected until middle of next year
I bet OA listened to the call and that reinforced his tweet saying to buy it. He's very thorough and does a lot of DD when he makes posts like that.

I wished I wasn't perma'd on Twitter in all my accounts because I can't easily see his posts.

OA, we'd love it if you could return to the clubhouse from time to time, but we know you're busy.

$30,000 Millionaire
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Roku looks like a turd. It's gotta be close to a bottom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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ps - not my first trip, but work travel f'n sucks now. Endless hours of mask wearing, they treat you like crap in first class, the hotels don't want to clean your room, you have to show your vax card in liberal states to eat in a restaurant, and there is an Uber driver shortage.

The west coast could pass for an authoritarian eastern bloc regime.
SF2004
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Can you imagine the premium? Just wow.

I think we are going to have a major multiple year down cycle in the market starting within 6 months once the sugar rush of liquidity starts to be less helpful. It's like drinking too many Dr Peppers in a row and realizing that you can't actually taste it anymore.

I'm talking down to SPX 3000, or lower. So how could you play it? I think a thousand point wide butterfly wouldn't be horrible, and man, that mother effer could pay. I'd like for the 20:1 reward to risk types.

You could also buy 1,000 shares of SPY and then sell an SPX call against it. You would get all the dividends in the mean time and you probably wouldn't get assigned. It may even be guaranteed 50% return.

credit spreads may be interesting. Buy a long dated call or put and then farm shorter dated options in front of it for premium.


In a long term bearish market wouldn't VIX be up making good premium available on strangles and iron condors?
$30,000 Millionaire
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SF2004 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Can you imagine the premium? Just wow.

I think we are going to have a major multiple year down cycle in the market starting within 6 months once the sugar rush of liquidity starts to be less helpful. It's like drinking too many Dr Peppers in a row and realizing that you can't actually taste it anymore.

I'm talking down to SPX 3000, or lower. So how could you play it? I think a thousand point wide butterfly wouldn't be horrible, and man, that mother effer could pay. I'd like for the 20:1 reward to risk types.

You could also buy 1,000 shares of SPY and then sell an SPX call against it. You would get all the dividends in the mean time and you probably wouldn't get assigned. It may even be guaranteed 50% return.

credit spreads may be interesting. Buy a long dated call or put and then farm shorter dated options in front of it for premium.


In a long term bearish market wouldn't VIX be up making good premium available on strangles and iron condors?


Yes but thats a big commitment to a range and hard to manage.
Charismatic Megafauna
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30k i hope you still have a pile of ostk. What a week!
Brian Earl Spilner
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Roku looks like a turd. It's gotta be close to a bottom.
I've been stockpiling more and more when it's 300-310.

I just don't see a world where it goes any lower than this for a long period of time.
Philip J Fry
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

ps - not my first trip, but work travel f'n sucks now. Endless hours of mask wearing, they treat you like crap in first class, the hotels don't want to clean your room, you have to show your vax card in liberal states to eat in a restaurant, and there is an Uber driver shortage.

The west coast could pass for an authoritarian eastern bloc regime.


You should try New Mexico near the Navajo reservation. Holy ****, I got more grief for not wearing my mask then I ever have in California.
$30,000 Millionaire
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NRD09 said:

30k i hope you still have a pile of ostk. What a week!


This is probably a permanent ish hold.
krosch11
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No kidding. Had to do a conf in Chicago last week and it was 5 days straight of masks and ID checks . Different worlds now in different regions.
McInnis 03
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Philip J Fry said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

ps - not my first trip, but work travel f'n sucks now. Endless hours of mask wearing, they treat you like crap in first class, the hotels don't want to clean your room, you have to show your vax card in liberal states to eat in a restaurant, and there is an Uber driver shortage.

The west coast could pass for an authoritarian eastern bloc regime.


You should try New Mexico near the Navajo reservation. Holy ****, I got more grief for not wearing my mask then I ever have in California.


They got wrecked pretty bad from the 'vid I believe
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
mazag08
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Roku looks like a turd. It's gotta be close to a bottom.
I've been stockpiling more and more when it's 300-310.

I just don't see a world where it goes any lower than this for a long period of time.


There's a chance it goes lower. But your safe. Like almost everything else, it's closer to a boom than a bigger downturn.
Definitely Not A Cop
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So LUV has to be a play right? Down to $47 from $56 a month ago.
Philip J Fry
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Guess they should have worn even more masks.
62strat
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Philip J Fry said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

ps - not my first trip, but work travel f'n sucks now. Endless hours of mask wearing, they treat you like crap in first class, the hotels don't want to clean your room, you have to show your vax card in liberal states to eat in a restaurant, and there is an Uber driver shortage.

The west coast could pass for an authoritarian eastern bloc regime.


You should try New Mexico near the Navajo reservation. Holy ****, I got more grief for not wearing my mask then I ever have in California.
i was in Santa Fe recently, and was in a pedestrian area with a coffee shop. I am outside and walk up to window to order a donut and the employee, who is inside, asked me to put on a mask.
I said, uhh I don't have one, I'm outside and wasn't planning on going inside anywhere. She grabbed one from inside and asked me to put in on.

I'm like…. Ok, I'm outside, 5' away from you about to order a donut and you're gonna make me walk up right next to you grab a mask so I can put it on.

I could have had my donut and been out of here by now.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Champ Bailey said:

So LUV has to be a play right? Down to $47 from $56 a month ago.


They're the best airline. I am going to buy December 50C
leoj
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Definitely Not A Cop
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Champ Bailey said:

So LUV has to be a play right? Down to $47 from $56 a month ago.


They're the best airline. I am going to buy December 50C


I feel like one of the easiest ways to make money right now has to be to wait for an airline screwup, then just buy a bunch of it a few weeks after. They when the last time one of them hasn't bounced back from it?
$30,000 Millionaire
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That's always a sound strategy for good companies.

Happening right now with FB.

I've made money doing this with Volkswagen, BP, and Wells Fargo. I've only lost money on Tokyo Electric Power.
irish pete ag06
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Philip J Fry said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

ps - not my first trip, but work travel f'n sucks now. Endless hours of mask wearing, they treat you like crap in first class, the hotels don't want to clean your room, you have to show your vax card in liberal states to eat in a restaurant, and there is an Uber driver shortage.

The west coast could pass for an authoritarian eastern bloc regime.


You should try New Mexico near the Navajo reservation. Holy ****, I got more grief for not wearing my mask then I ever have in California.
A person I know from my little town here in East Texas lives in New Mexico. Last week her oldest son was sent to in school suspension for letting his mask slip below his nose too many times... then 2 days later her youngest came home and his mask had been duck taped to the bridge of his nose. I'm a public educator but I would be looking to do some physical harm to another educator for the duck tape.
irish pete ag06
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Gonna start posting my small watchlist here each night for the next day. I've been working on day trading stocks that are coming off of inside days (1 bars for the stratters out there). Idea being you couple this with some flow analysis from unusual whales and play the breakout of the consolidation. Usually try to wait for 2 closes on the 5min chart outside of the previous day's range for confirmation before taking the play.

First one on my list is SOFI
SOFI Ask Side flow super bullish $3k premium... especially the NOV 5 strikes.


Here's the triggers (in yellow) levels with Target 1 and 2 (in blue)


SOFI is coming off double inside days actually so this thing is wound up really tight.


Edit to say that based on the super bullish flow, I like calls better than puts here. I do think if this thing breaks to the downside it will bounce hard off the $19 support. This might be one you can scalp a put then flip to a call if you get a reversal confirmation at 19 for the ride back up.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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https://www.asiamarkets.com/sp-500-performance-in-2022-will-be-bullish-if-history-is-a-guide/

Interesting read.

TLDR: 2022 bullish potential
$30,000 Millionaire
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$WATT looks bottomed out. If you take it, do a 10% stop loss, but I think this could rebound. Earnings is next Thursday, so might make sense to wait for it.

They got FCC approval for wireless charging. No revenue yet, but $40M in cash, no debt. They're burning $10M+ Per quarter, so dilution is possible. I noticed a big uptick in SG&A expenses on their balance sheet. I consider this high risk.
CincySwimmer
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irish pete ag06 said:

Gonna start posting my small watchlist here each night for the next day. I've been working on day trading stocks that are coming off of inside days (1 bars for the stratters out there). Idea being you couple this with some flow analysis from unusual whales and play the breakout of the consolidation. Usually try to wait for 2 closes on the 5min chart outside of the previous day's range for confirmation before taking the play.

First one on my list is SOFI
SOFI Ask Side flow super bullish $3k premium... especially the NOV 5 strikes.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/883111765641146368/904477282985472071/unknown.png?width=1129&height=702

Here's the triggers (in yellow) levels with Target 1 and 2 (in blue)
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/883111765641146368/904477737782226964/unknown.png?width=1089&height=702

SOFI is coming off double inside days actually so this thing is wound up really tight.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kImvVN04/

Edit to say that based on the super bullish flow, I like calls better than puts here. I do think if this thing breaks to the downside it will bounce hard off the $19 support. This might be one you can scalp a put then flip to a call if you get a reversal confirmation at 19 for the ride back up.


Would you be eyeing the weekly 20.5c's on the break to the upside and weekly 19.5p's on the break to the downside? Thanks for sharing your play!
jimmo
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irish pete ag06 said:

Gonna start posting my small watchlist here each night for the next day. I've been working on day trading stocks that are coming off of inside days (1 bars for the stratters out there). Idea being you couple this with some flow analysis from unusual whales and play the breakout of the consolidation. Usually try to wait for 2 closes on the 5min chart outside of the previous day's range for confirmation before taking the play.

First one on my list is SOFI
SOFI Ask Side flow super bullish $3k premium... especially the NOV 5 strikes.


Here's the triggers (in yellow) levels with Target 1 and 2 (in blue)


SOFI is coming off double inside days actually so this thing is wound up really tight.


Edit to say that based on the super bullish flow, I like calls better than puts here. I do think if this thing breaks to the downside it will bounce hard off the $19 support. This might be one you can scalp a put then flip to a call if you get a reversal confirmation at 19 for the ride back up.
Thank you Pete!
following
do you subscribe to unusual whales? or can you glean info freely?
Max Stonetrail
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First, kudos to everyone who posts their ideas on this thread. There is so much I have no idea how you guys keep up with it all.

I basically trade SPY and AMD. I watch AMD myself, and I have been using I think $30K and others predictions and charts on SPY based on technicals and charts. I have to say it has been spot on in most cases. A couple of weeks ago 427 was predicted as a floor on SPY and I traded off of that several times. Last week it was forecast we would go to 460. Traded on that in anticipation and had another good week.

I usually just wait for a pullback and pick a call that is a couple of weeks out and close to the money with around a 0.50 Delta. This has consistently returned a move of about $3.00 upside, which is about $1.50 on the call. I have been trying to close them all out intraday. I have made some pretty good size investments (well, bets to be honest), and I sleep a lot better not worrying about a limit down morning. I have played the long side mostly, but some shorts here and there.

I wanted to thank again the posters for all this information. I sometimes feel like I am taking advantage of all this great advice and analysis without contributing. I will try to post some of my trades throughout the week going forward.

irish pete ag06
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I do subscribe to unusual whales. It's a great tool. It's a bit overwhelming at first, but you figure it out.
irish pete ag06
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Yes.
ProgN
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Max Stonetrail said:

First, kudos to everyone who posts their ideas on this thread. There is so much I have no idea how you guys keep up with it all.

I basically trade SPY and AMD. I watch AMD myself, and I have been using I think $30K and others predictions and charts on SPY based on technicals and charts. I have to say it has been spot on in most cases. A couple of weeks ago 427 was predicted as a floor on SPY and I traded off of that several times. Last week it was forecast we would go to 460. Traded on that in anticipation and had another good week.

I usually just wait for a pullback and pick a call that is a couple of weeks out and close to the money with around a 0.50 Delta. This has consistently returned a move of about $3.00 upside, which is about $1.50 on the call. I have been trying to close them all out intraday. I have made some pretty good size investments (well, bets to be honest), and I sleep a lot better not worrying about a limit down morning. I have played the long side mostly, but some shorts here and there.

I wanted to thank again the posters for all this information. I sometimes feel like I am taking advantage of all this great advice and analysis without contributing. I will try to post some of my trades throughout the week going forward.


I've unplugged from everything because I'm dealing with the likely death of my sister and being there for my mom because it's really hurting her (us), prayers are welcomed. Good post and you will learn more, the more you ask questions and interact.

This thread is a wealth of knowledge that is shared freely. It doesn't matter if you're a brain surgeon, 30K millionaire, wearing a Gus hat in cutoffs wearing boots on a beach, or have a green hammer on your desk, this thread provides what newsletter "gurus" charge for.

Even with having almost 3 decades of market experience I learn new things in this thread from others a lot. No one has unlocked the secret to the market, but you'll learn bits and pieces from others and everyone here wants you to avoid land mines that we've already stepped on.
frankm01
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Prayers to you and your family, Prog. Nothing can be said to make this better but know you have support from all here.
$30,000 Millionaire
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For the SPY traders: I think there are really high odds that there is a test of 4590 and/or 4565 (ES levels). I similarly think an upside test of 4620 is inevitable during RTH if it doesn't happen overnight. I would probably wait and watch if we open above that number in the morning, maybe fade if the action starts looking like a fade. Overall, I lean bullish as long as we are above 4565 but I want to remind that we won't hang around 3 ATR forever and at a minimum you get an 8 ema test. 4520 would be a solid dip buy if it happens.

I don't see a lot of bearish sentiment, so I wouldn't be shocked for us to get a pullback of sorts, especially with the fed speaking. Even traders like Adam Mancini express caution but seem to believe 4700 is inevitable before a pullback happens. A lot of people are long and euphoric at the moment.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I am so sorry, Prog. I hope she pulls through. Prayers uplifted for you and your family.
$30,000 Millionaire
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The only thing I don't like about this is the volume.
Drawkcab
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Is FB still going to be traded as FB? What happens if you hold companies when they change names and trading symbols?
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