ProgN said:

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Max Stonetrail said:

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First, kudos to everyone who posts their ideas on this thread. There is so much I have no idea how you guys keep up with it all.

I basically trade SPY and AMD. I watch AMD myself, and I have been using I think $30K and others predictions and charts on SPY based on technicals and charts. I have to say it has been spot on in most cases. A couple of weeks ago 427 was predicted as a floor on SPY and I traded off of that several times. Last week it was forecast we would go to 460. Traded on that in anticipation and had another good week.

I usually just wait for a pullback and pick a call that is a couple of weeks out and close to the money with around a 0.50 Delta. This has consistently returned a move of about $3.00 upside, which is about $1.50 on the call. I have been trying to close them all out intraday. I have made some pretty good size investments (well, bets to be honest), and I sleep a lot better not worrying about a limit down morning. I have played the long side mostly, but some shorts here and there.

I wanted to thank again the posters for all this information. I sometimes feel like I am taking advantage of all this great advice and analysis without contributing. I will try to post some of my trades throughout the week going forward.

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I've unplugged from everything because I'm dealing with the likely death of my sister and being there for my mom because it's really hurting her (us), prayers are welcomed. Good post and you will learn more, the more you ask questions and interact.

This thread is a wealth of knowledge that is shared freely. It doesn't matter if you're a brain surgeon, 30K millionaire, wearing a Gus hat in cutoffs wearing boots on a beach, or have a green hammer on your desk, this thread provides what newsletter "gurus" charge for.

Even with having almost 3 decades of market experience I learn new things in this thread from others a lot. No one has unlocked the secret to the market, but you'll learn bits and pieces from others and everyone here wants you to avoid land mines that we've already stepped on.

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So sorry to hear this Prog. I'll be keeping you and your family in my prayers each morning. Stay strong brother.

Praying for your sister and family

Monday Macros. Thoughts and Prayers Prog.


Equity MELT-UP...Bonds Reverse...Fed /Non Farm Will Make This Week EPIC

Expect a wild week with the Fed and other Central Banks in the spot light.. Inflation is no longer transitory and the new acronym of the week is REW... Rent Inflation, Energy inflation (green inflation) and Wage inflation... We saw that in decade record ECI numbers last week, and Amazon showed us it remains as one of its two biggest inflation trends along with shipping (supply chain) soaring costs... But first lets get back to the overnight.

Equities are in a melt-up phase as S+P and other indices are setting new records AGAIN... Bonds are reversing some of the month end allocations from Friday . 10 years have hit 1.59 overnight...we do not think it stops there...European equities are up another 1% in Italy where both Italy and France are up over 23% YTD... Not bad for investors... Even the Nikkei was up 2.61% overnight...Chinese equities continue to get hit, both Hang Sang and the CSI were down overnight and both remain negative YTD... Evergrande and related housing companies continue to struggle while power shortages plague China and manufacturing, where Manufacturing PMI is in contraction territory...

The Fed... Tapering is the expectation on Wednesday... Should start November 15, with a 10 billion a month reduction for treasuries and a 5 billion a month reduction in mortgage buying...this should continue every month until tapering is ended by June 2022... GS has the Fed starting to raise rates in July 2022, but we think this will come a few months later...depends on the circumstances at the time... The markets are much more aggressive in rate rising globally than the Fed, which we think is correct... Could the Fed come off Dovish on Wednesday? It could but we doubt it... The true term and meaning of transitory is dead, and the Fed seems to understand that... We will outline the three scenarios we see from the Fed meeting tomorrow... But understand, it takes the markets about 18 hours to digest the Fed so do not be surprised to see the real trend start on Thursday, and be extreme right before the employment number Friday... The Fed realizes that the labor markets are in a massive shortage and inflation has gotten away from them... We will have to see how they spin it... But the Anglophone Central Banks are all in a tightening mode...BOC, RBA, New Zealand, BOE... And pressure will continue to build on the Fed

Inflation is rampant, setting multi decade highs... Our new term, taken from a Macrovoices Pod cast we listened to in driving, is REW...Rent inflation, Energy inflation and Wage inflation... All three are not transitory and will continue to push inflation higher.. The other term we picked up is Energy Green Inflation... To put simply, with WTI at 84, one would have thought fracking would speed up to make up the difference... Who cares about Russia and the Saudi's, but that has not happened because investors and banks are being pressured not to fund oil exploration and fracking... And global consumers are paying through the nose... Natural gas is 5 times higher in Asia and Europe... And surprising to us is that Cushing deliverable gas storage is down to 30% of capacity.. Remember this is what is deliverable... Expect to see a big spike to 100+ in WTI

Rates... 1.52 to 1.62 in the short term for 10 years...but we would not be surprised to see 1.70 and 1.76 break in 10 years... 5 years is closing in on 1.25 again, and should reach 1.31... If those numbers are broken than we could easily go back another 25 basis to 1.56 5 years and 2% 10 years, respectively... It could go the other way... We saw over 15mm dvo1 in block trades last week.. The curve is all over the place... 20/30 are inverted but that is not important... The treasury should have done 50 years rather than 20 years.. But that is another issue... 2/10 and 5/30's are important... In 5/30, currently 76, could get back to .85 and possibly 100... But .56 is in the cards... Still until either 2/10 or 5/30 go inverted, we expect higher rates...again 18 hours after the Fed presser

Corporates should have another decent week...we expect over 100 billion for November... As equities soar, reallocation from balancer's will give a bid for corporate bonds...hard to believe that in 3/09 HY was 18.7% while today it is 4.3%

Equities will continue to melt up... We are a fully invested bear at the moment... But even when the Fed starts to raise rates, they will be slow... And for now companies seem to be able to pass through costs...

ProgN said:

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Max Stonetrail said:

---

First, kudos to everyone who posts their ideas on this thread. There is so much I have no idea how you guys keep up with it all.

I basically trade SPY and AMD. I watch AMD myself, and I have been using I think $30K and others predictions and charts on SPY based on technicals and charts. I have to say it has been spot on in most cases. A couple of weeks ago 427 was predicted as a floor on SPY and I traded off of that several times. Last week it was forecast we would go to 460. Traded on that in anticipation and had another good week.

I usually just wait for a pullback and pick a call that is a couple of weeks out and close to the money with around a 0.50 Delta. This has consistently returned a move of about $3.00 upside, which is about $1.50 on the call. I have been trying to close them all out intraday. I have made some pretty good size investments (well, bets to be honest), and I sleep a lot better not worrying about a limit down morning. I have played the long side mostly, but some shorts here and there.

I wanted to thank again the posters for all this information. I sometimes feel like I am taking advantage of all this great advice and analysis without contributing. I will try to post some of my trades throughout the week going forward.

---

I've unplugged from everything because I'm dealing with the likely death of my sister and being there for my mom because it's really hurting her (us), prayers are welcomed. Good post and you will learn more, the more you ask questions and interact.

This thread is a wealth of knowledge that is shared freely. It doesn't matter if you're a brain surgeon, 30K millionaire, wearing a Gus hat in cutoffs wearing boots on a beach, or have a green hammer on your desk, this thread provides what newsletter "gurus" charge for.

Even with having almost 3 decades of market experience I learn new things in this thread from others a lot. No one has unlocked the secret to the market, but you'll learn bits and pieces from others and everyone here wants you to avoid land mines that we've already stepped on.

---

You're one of the kindest people on this entire thread. You're nothing but positive and encouraging, cautious and responsible.

I am SO sorry for what you're going through and will say a prayer for y'all.

OA sure nailed those IMMR calls. It's up about $1.30/shr since he posted that play last week or the week before.

T&P Prog. I just got back from my wife's cousin's funeral and saw the pain of losing a sibling/child from her family. I wouldn't wish that kind of pain on anybody.

My prayers are with you and your family, Prog. I know there is very little we can write here to bring you comfort but know that you're being prayed for and thought of.