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Brewmaster
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 8:53p, 9/2/20
AG
good to see you stop in! are you knee deep in VXX calls / hedges yet?
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Jet Black
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8:53p, 9/2/20
Options question. I'm just learning about options and wonder if this is a good idea, terrible idea, meh idea.

AMD sept 11th 86.50c

Thanks
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Jet Black • 8:56p, 9/2/20
AG
Jet Black said:
Options question. I'm just learning about options and wonder if this is a good idea, terrible idea, meh idea.

AMD sept 11th 86.50c

Thanks


What's your goal with this? Write it, buy it, hold it to expiry, trade for profit?
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khaos288
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In reply to Jet Black • 8:56p, 9/2/20
AG
Jet Black said:
Options question. I'm just learning about options and wonder if this is a good idea, terrible idea, meh idea.

AMD sept 11th 86.50c

Thanks


You're buying an in the money call?
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Jet Black
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:57p, 9/2/20
McInnis 03 said:
Jet Black said:
Options question. I'm just learning about options and wonder if this is a good idea, terrible idea, meh idea.

AMD sept 11th 86.50c

Thanks


What's your goal with this? Write it, buy it, hold it to expiry, trade for profit?


Buy, Likely trade it before expiry
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Jet Black
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In reply to khaos288 • 9:00p, 9/2/20
khaos288 said:
Jet Black said:
Options question. I'm just learning about options and wonder if this is a good idea, terrible idea, meh idea.

AMD sept 11th 86.50c

Thanks


You're buying an in the money call?


Haven't bought anything yet and it is my understanding itm calls have less risk.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Jet Black • 9:02p, 9/2/20
AG
Jet Black said:
khaos288 said:
Jet Black said:
Options question. I'm just learning about options and wonder if this is a good idea, terrible idea, meh idea.

AMD sept 11th 86.50c

Thanks


You're buying an in the money call?


Haven't bought anything yet and it is my understanding itm calls have less risk.


I own 100c for the same date so we are thinking the same direction. Itm calls have better delta and they have intrinsic value, so yes, less risk. This isn't crazy, if we get a $5 run or something like that you'll take advantage of most of it.

Itm and atm calls are great. Otm calls are dreams, and dreams are wonderful but many get dashed.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Jet Black • 9:10p, 9/2/20
AG
More to the point, AMD had an outside day today, it has to figure out what it wants to do. It's exploring this new range. It could breathe a few days, it could run. 9/11 gives you 5 days for it to work. If it breaks today's low 88.74 it could test 85 again. If it breaks 92.51 it could test the ATH
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Jet Black
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:14p, 9/2/20
Very helpful. Thank you!
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:15p, 9/2/20
AG
I'll tell you what I'm going to do on AMD: it is either going to start moving where I want it to be EOD Thursday or I'm out. I like how it looks. Below 89 and I'm out as well.
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Esteban du Plantier
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:18p, 9/2/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:
[Otm calls are dreams, and dreams are wonderful but many get dashed.


But they're cheap!
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:18p, 9/2/20
AG
BREwmaster said:
good to see you stop in! are you knee deep in VXX calls / hedges yet?
Not yet! But to address your question regarding volatility in general and some other posts talking about volatility, here are my thoughts:
There has been a constant inflow into Vol products and futures are being bid up as well.
I think the severe contango between front month (September) and October futures is a trap for those trying to make the easy play on shorting vol based on that contango and I know many that are shorting. I can see a Volmageddon 2.0 happening.
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khaos288
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In reply to Jet Black • 9:24p, 9/2/20
AG
Jet Black said:
khaos288 said:
Jet Black said:
Options question. I'm just learning about options and wonder if this is a good idea, terrible idea, meh idea.

AMD sept 11th 86.50c

Thanks


You're buying an in the money call?


Haven't bought anything yet and it is my understanding itm calls have less risk.
That is 100% true. Are you buying itm calls because you don't want to tie capital up in shares? Obviously shares are the least risky, but they're capital intensive.
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Jet Black
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In reply to khaos288 • 9:26p, 9/2/20
Yes. I don't even know if I will follow through. I wanted to make sure I wasn't completely off base though.
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topher06
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9:27p, 9/2/20
I think I'm joining this is too hot right now camp.
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McInnis 03
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9:33p, 9/2/20
AG
Riley was the champ here with volatility. Wish he didn't leave. Would love his input
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khaos288
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In reply to Jet Black • 9:33p, 9/2/20
AG
Nope. If you want to risk a little money on options and you thinK AMD is going up, then buy as ITM as you want to and it will get less risky.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:38p, 9/2/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Daniel bat signal

Can you dumb this down so I can understand it?




What he is pretentiously saying is that the call volumes are so high that dealers are having to sell their put hedges (downside convexity) to buy calls (upside convexity) to cover the cost of hedging further upside moves.

The significance of this is that, any downward moves in the market will further be exascerbated as the dealers are less hedged / more exposed to downside risk.

Always a red flag for me when people use complicated terms to pretend they know at lot.


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khaos288
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 9:50p, 9/2/20
AG
I don't know man. I ain't heard of no dang oh convexity before. This feller May be onter something.
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aggiedaniel06
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9:57p, 9/2/20
AG
For anyone who wants to get very serious about understanding volatility, I recommend Euan Sinclair's book - Volatility Trading.
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Jet Black
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In reply to khaos288 • 9:59p, 9/2/20
khaos288 said:
Nope. If you want to risk a little money on options and you thinK AMD is going up, then buy as ITM as you want to and it will get less risky.


Thanks!
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Ragoo
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In reply to Jet Black • 10:09p, 9/2/20
AG
Jet Black said:
khaos288 said:
Nope. If you want to risk a little money on options and you thinK AMD is going up, then buy as ITM as you want to and it will get less risky.


Thanks!
to expand. The more In The Money and the longer the duration the option contract becomes a synthetic long.

Example. You can buy the stock today for $90 and own it forever. So 100 shares cost you 9000. Likewise you can buy the 60call out to January 2022 for $42. So you can Control twice as many shares via option contracts for the same amount of money. These however have an end date.
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Jet Black
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In reply to Ragoo • 10:15p, 9/2/20
Ragoo said:
Jet Black said:
khaos288 said:
Nope. If you want to risk a little money on options and you thinK AMD is going up, then buy as ITM as you want to and it will get less risky.


Thanks!
to expand. The more In The Money and the longer the duration the option contract becomes a synthetic long.

Example. You can buy the stock today for $90 and own it forever. So 100 shares cost you 9000. Likewise you can buy the 60call out to January 2022 for $42. So you can Control twice as many shares via option contracts for the same amount of money. These however have an end date.


Great info. Thank you.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to khaos288 • 10:38p, 9/2/20
AG
Reading that reminded me of this...

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GreasenUSA
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 10:43p, 9/2/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Riley was the champ here with volatility. Wish he didn't leave. Would love his input
He was actually a bit misleading with posts like this one in March claiming simple long puts on the VIX are "literally free money" without understanding accounting for IV.

https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2721405/replies/56160255

The two recommended in this post never saw any gains more than about 5% from the time this post was made through now. To his credit, he did add a disclaimer to the post.



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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:07p, 9/2/20
AG
Futures are red. This is not possible.
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The Pilot
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:08p, 9/2/20
AG
Fed wakes up at 3am.
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thirdcoast
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 11:40p, 9/2/20
AG
aggiedaniel06 said:
iluvpoker said:
And the melt up continues. Which is why I keep my puts in my back pocket. You can lose a lot of money betting against this fed market.

Last Thursday I posted here a 2-3 day, 1,000-2,000 Dow pullback beginning anywhere from 9/2 to 9/11. The action the last 4 trading sessions has me doing 2 things
1) pushing the start date back to 9/7-9/22
2) increasing the downside to 1,500-3,000

For now continue to enjoy the upside. Not buying any puts this week.
Are you basing this on something specific?


When the 30yr treasury yield breaks below 1.2% the equities correction will begin.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield

If this turns out to be wrong, it came from a Peter Schiff type cynic named Steve Van Metre, who is bearish gold and bullish USD....some interesting youtube clips that I find a bit more credible and nuanced than the tons of crash callers out there talking about the "disconnect".

In layman terms, I think this is a sign that enough capital is shifting out of equities and into bonds driving yield lower. And according to Metre, 1.2% is enough to tip scale and trigger collapse. Maybe it's better to wait until < 1% and after Trump tweets for everyone to buy stonks.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to thirdcoast • 12:21a, 9/3/20
AG
Ah, Steven Van Wrong.

I call him that because of his incorrectness on so many things, the main one being his statement that QE is deflationary.

He points to timelines in the past where there has been QE and a simultaneous deflation in asset prices. Classic case of correlation is not causation, as a sharp drop in asset prices is what leads to monetary and fiscal stimulus. So literally the opposite.

Look around us, all assets (Precious Metals, stocks, bonds, fine art, high end RE) are in inflationary mode which has always been the case when the QE spigot is on.

That being said, I do believe we can have a serious deflationary bust within the next year caused by an insolvency crisis in our economy.
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aggiedaniel06
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12:24a, 9/3/20
AG
I am intrigued why ilovepoker specifically picked those dates and that percentage for a correction.
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Aggie_2463
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5:40a, 9/3/20
AG
SDC - $10.50 pre market

To the moon!
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UpstateAg
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 6:18a, 9/3/20
AG
What do you think of the buying Jan 2021 options of spxs as a hedge for volatiiity instead of vix calls?
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Ragoo
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6:39a, 9/3/20
AG
Already testing yesterday lows. I don't like that.
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tailgatetimer10
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In reply to Aggie_2463 • 6:48a, 9/3/20
AG
Aggie_2463 said:
SDC - $10.50 pre market

To the moon!


Ok this is what I like to see. Let's get back to the teens
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to tailgatetimer10 • 6:55a, 9/3/20
tailgatetimer10 said:
Aggie_2463 said:
SDC - $10.50 pre market

To the moon!


Ok this is what I like to see. Let's get back to the teens


Don't let this post get taken out of context!
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