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aggiedaniel06
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1:43p, 8/7/20
AG
Today's correction should not be a concern. It's just rotation from growth to value.

The bottom line is that as soon as the 3 Trillion stimulus money was maxxed out into the market around early June, we have just been on a carousel from growth to value to growth, around and around.

Large Cap Tech i.e. FAANGNAM has been the only exception as they also get major flows from passive and foreign players (pegging their currencies to weakening USD)

Until more stimulus money finds it's way into the markets, keep expecting this churn.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 1:47p, 8/7/20
aggiedaniel06 said:
The reversal in Cloud stocks could be seen from a mile away. Smart money has been handing them off to dumb money for over a month as portrayed by the the reversal patterns, moneyflows and bearish diveregences..

Information that would have been useful to me YESTERDAY! /gif
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Ragoo
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 1:48p, 8/7/20
AG
How can you tell? Just noticing down growth days are up value days? Smart money just moving from one see-saw to the next? Then once the rise happens they move back to the other asset group?
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leoj
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 1:49p, 8/7/20
AG
aggiedaniel06 said:
leoj said:
This is a pretty decent reversal or loss day for a lot of my top growth watchlist. I have existed most positions at around 5% loss, some like FSLY at more than that, mainly because of bad entries. Will look to add back into these names, where a lot of the actual results have been great, once the stocks build up some support. Just seeing a lot of 21 days getting sliced through and even some below 50 day.
Kudos, thats great discipline! Cloud stocks are a great example of how bagholders are created,

The reversal in Cloud stocks could be seen from a mile away. Smart money has been handing them off to dumb money for over a month as portrayed by the the reversal patterns, moneyflows and bearish diveregences..



Thanks Daniel, appreciate it and always like to get your read on the market. Frustrating that I let my eagerness get ahead of patience on a lot of the entries in these new accounts. Will just take a step back and get ready for some better set ups. I have had some good swing trades in PENN, FB, Z, a couple others. Might try and stick to that and take my 5-10% gains on 3-5% positions until I see some real opportunities to start building long term positions, since these are both IRA accounts.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Ragoo • 1:59p, 8/7/20
AG
Ragoo said:
How can you tell? Just noticing down growth days are up value days? Smart money just moving from one see-saw to the next? Then once the rise happens they move back to the other asset group?
I second your question to our resident Pro! ... one thing I noticed about a week or 2 ago, was rotation out of bios, the bio ETF's dumped, money rotating out.
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Brewmaster
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2:00p, 8/7/20
AG
added OSTK calls on that dip
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McInnis 03
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 2:03p, 8/7/20
AG
aggiedaniel06 said:
Today's correction should not be a concern. It's just rotation from growth to value.

The bottom line is that as soon as the 3 Trillion stimulus money was maxxed out into the market around early June, we have just been on a carousel from growth to value to growth, around and around.

Large Cap Tech i.e. FAANGNAM has been the only exception as they also get major flows from passive and foreign players (pegging their currencies to weakening USD)

Until more stimulus money finds it's way into the markets, keep expecting this churn.
Next time you see something a mile away, make sure you tell us before we are .1th of a mile past it.

Signed,
Dumb Money
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to Ragoo • 2:05p, 8/7/20
AG
Ragoo said:
How can you tell? Just noticing down growth days are up value days? Smart money just moving from one see-saw to the next? Then once the rise happens they move back to the other asset group?
You have to understand one fundamental thing of the markets. It has two types of money. Speculative and Passive.

Passive i.e. Pension funds, 401k's, sovereign funds, etc.. for the last 3 decades have been net buyers of stocks, bonds, treasuries, etc... This forms the foundation for price. If passive doesn't exist the market would be chaotic. This is why the economy matters and the fed cannot save us forever!

I read a post about XOM cutting 401k match. I know Dell has done the same. These are examples of reduced passive money in the market.

Now to your question - The speculative money (Hedgefunds, retail, etc..) is the one moving around fast and hard all the time. How are we to make money? By making someone else buy at a higher price than us. Where did that money come from? From their post tax salary or unemployment check or whatever.

And your main question, how do I know this is rotation - clearest sign is growth names are down, while banks (XLF) are up.
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KT 90
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2:06p, 8/7/20
AG
speaking of stimulus money, are we going to see a further dip today if they don't meet today's informal deadline to get the framework of the next agreement in place?

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McInnis 03
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2:08p, 8/7/20
AG
Quote:
I read a post about XOM cutting 401k match.

They're definitely not the only one. But don't worry, my company won't match your 401k but they'll still pay a fat dividend come ex-div time.
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AGSmith
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In reply to Brewmaster • 2:09p, 8/7/20
AG
BREwmaster said:
added OSTK calls on that dip
Date/strike?
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McInnis 03
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2:09p, 8/7/20
AG
BTW, since Speedy asked earlier, TICK hasn't crossed below -100 which means it's been living on the up for 30+ minutes now.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 2:09p, 8/7/20
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
aggiedaniel06 said:
The reversal in Cloud stocks could be seen from a mile away. Smart money has been handing them off to dumb money for over a month as portrayed by the the reversal patterns, moneyflows and bearish diveregences..

Information that would have been useful to me YESTERDAY! /gif
Well, I have mentioned about shorting DDOG for about 3 weeks now, because that's the one I was mainly focused on and clearest to me. You could see similar patterns across the board in almost all cloud names.
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0708aggie
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2:11p, 8/7/20
AG
I need something to buy here. Thoughts?
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SpeedyAg90
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2:12p, 8/7/20
AG
Tick going negative now ?
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McInnis 03
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In reply to SpeedyAg90 • 2:13p, 8/7/20
AG
SpeedyAg90 said:
Tick going negative now ?
As soon as I posted.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 2:17p, 8/7/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:
aggiedaniel06 said:
Today's correction should not be a concern. It's just rotation from growth to value.

The bottom line is that as soon as the 3 Trillion stimulus money was maxxed out into the market around early June, we have just been on a carousel from growth to value to growth, around and around.

Large Cap Tech i.e. FAANGNAM has been the only exception as they also get major flows from passive and foreign players (pegging their currencies to weakening USD)

Until more stimulus money finds it's way into the markets, keep expecting this churn.
Next time you see something a mile away, make sure you tell us before we are .1th of a mile past it.

Signed,
Dumb Money
I did! You were just a tad early on DDOG. Next time give your options some time for your thesis to play out.

Whatever timeframe I think something is going to happen in, I add 30-45 days to that when picking an expiry.
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bigbass1170
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 2:18p, 8/7/20
AG
Probably asked many times over already, but what do you use to monitor TICK?
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McInnis 03
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In reply to bigbass1170 • 2:21p, 8/7/20
AG
Ask away, someone else probably wants to know too.

I use $TICK on ThinkOrSwim. I'm sure TICK is available to monitor on may platforms. I keep it on a 1 min scale and on my chart I highlight -400 to 400 as that is my "I don't care zone", then I mark 800/-800 and 1000/-1000 with lines and on the 1000/-1000 I have audible alarms that go off if they're struck. A "WARNING" buzzer for -1000 and a cash register opening for 1000
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McInnis 03
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 2:21p, 8/7/20
AG
Timing and patience is my weakness. Thanks for the reinforcement.
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Ragoo
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 2:22p, 8/7/20
AG
aggiedaniel06 said:
McInnis 03 said:
aggiedaniel06 said:
Today's correction should not be a concern. It's just rotation from growth to value.

The bottom line is that as soon as the 3 Trillion stimulus money was maxxed out into the market around early June, we have just been on a carousel from growth to value to growth, around and around.

Large Cap Tech i.e. FAANGNAM has been the only exception as they also get major flows from passive and foreign players (pegging their currencies to weakening USD)

Until more stimulus money finds it's way into the markets, keep expecting this churn.
Next time you see something a mile away, make sure you tell us before we are .1th of a mile past it.

Signed,
Dumb Money
I did! You were just a tad early on DDOG. Next time give your options some time for your thesis to play out.

Whatever timeframe I think something is going to happen in, I add 30-45 days to that when picking an expiry.
time with options is the most important factor IMO. Being wrong initially on a 30-45 days won't draw down quickly. Being wrong on a weekly will wash out an account.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to bigbass1170 • 2:24p, 8/7/20
AG

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bigbass1170
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 2:25p, 8/7/20
AG
Perfect, thanks a lot! Been reading Carter a bit so this helps greatly.
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SpeedyAg90
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2:29p, 8/7/20
AG
Just announced talks on stimulus fell apart today ! CNBC just posted
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McInnis 03
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2:31p, 8/7/20
AG
Did anyone leave open the W or CVNA flies I assembled? I closed them too early and now they look pretty damn handsome.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to 0708aggie • 2:32p, 8/7/20
AG
0708aggie said:
I need something to buy here. Thoughts?
crwd 9/4 125c for 1.35
trvn 8/21 5c (7x volume today edit: on the stonk not the calls) for .35
edit2: GOCO 8/21c 17.5 or 20 strike depending how rich your blood is (.9 or .65...added prices for posterity)

do ya feel lucky, punk?
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ProgN
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2:34p, 8/7/20
Coronavirus aid talks fall apart in meeting between Democrats, White House

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronavirus-stimulus-updates-relief-bill-stalls-trump-mulls-executive-order.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
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McInnis 03
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2:36p, 8/7/20
AG
Not scaring anyone, we knew they couldn't get it done.
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pacecar02
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2:36p, 8/7/20
page 2002, WHOOP
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Barty Dont Hedge
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In reply to pacecar02 • 2:38p, 8/7/20
pacecar02 said:
page 2002, WHOOP
I am scared to think what will happen on page 2020....
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 2:41p, 8/7/20
Thanks for your contributions. I was just giving you hell and channeling my inner Sandler. I also showed off my inability to post gifs.
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ProgN
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In reply to Barty Dont Hedge • 2:44p, 8/7/20
Barty said:
pacecar02 said:
page 2002, WHOOP
I am scared to think what will happen on page 2020....
We're just going to all post blank posts or "?" Until we get to page 2021. Think of taller buildings that don't have a 13th floor.
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aggiedaniel06
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 2:47p, 8/7/20
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Been watching AYX all morning. Was going to load up if it held 124 but then it did not. Now I'm seeing if it holds 121. @ripster47 on twitter has been on it all morning too. This is really the last support before a nasty flush so watching intently.
AYX showing the daunting fat man - little boy pattern

Zoomed out daily chart looks like a bomb in freefall.
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McInnis 03
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2:49p, 8/7/20
AG
SPX NHOD
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leoj
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2:51p, 8/7/20
AG
Wow, buyers showed up and HP sell signal on QQQ got negated. Did not expect that. However, damage has been done to some leading names.
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