Carlo4 said:

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AA up 15% on news of vaccine*. Also, 25,000 in serious danger of being furloughed when bailouts end in September.

Nothing odd at all for a few hours of trading.

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Yep, just another one of the big pharma companies showing their FOMO.

TXAG14 said:

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Almost up to $8 million in bitcoin sent to this hacker.

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People are stupid.

Thoughts on re-entry into DRIP. I've been swing trading this with some luck. Appears to have closed below the trend line set out in the last two months. Is this a dip buying opportunity or continued downturn?

Something is odd about this hack. How in the hell did they gain access to that many high profile people? Just weird.

Inside twitter hack. No way they could hack that many 2 factor passwords

Definitely. They locked out every person with a verified account for about 30mins until they could figure it out.

Has to be.

YNWA_AG said:

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Inside twitter hack. No way they could hack that many 2 factor passwords

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Yes, this... saw someone on twitter (coincidentally) mention that they hacked a twitter employee's account.

that's bullish for FSLY, and puts for TWTR, lol

YNWA_AG said:

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Inside twitter hack. No way they could hack that many 2 factor passwords

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In my opinion, maybe not. This could have been a zero day exploit on a vendor that Twitter uses behind the scenes for auth / tokens. You also have the possibility of the "inside" job being an entity that discovered this flaw either in their normal course of business with 3rd party software, or they could be an employee / tipped off by an employee of a security company. In my opinion, that is by far the most likely outcome.

This is a decent image of what might have happened. If you are able to run an exploit on a 3rd party service, you would be able to proxy the API between Twitter and the authentication provider for both the primary and secondary authentication. It may be possible to access the account without even knowing the username / password of the end-user. That would explain why Twitter blocked posting by these accounts.

McInnis 03 said:

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NRD09 said:

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look at CRWD grinding back up to the 21, just like it did on 6/29

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Now get DDOG and FTNT to do the same.

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THANX HAC0Rz!!

Ok so if crwd is going on a moon mission tomorrow how do i max profit on these spreads? Buy back short calls at open and let the long calls run?

I'd wait for the stock to exit earth's atmosphere before saying it is going to the moon (only up 1%).

This is a crap design, imo.

topher06 said:

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TXAG14 said:

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Almost up to $8 million in bitcoin sent to this hacker.

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People are stupid.

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$8MM for a twitter version of the send money to my relative in Africa scam...wow people are so dumb

I picked something simple to highlight where an interception can occur.

NRD09 said:

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Ok so if crwd is going on a moon mission tomorrow how do i max profit on these spreads? Buy back short calls at open and let the long calls run?

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You could.

I'd suggest not adding risk. Stick to your plan. I don't think a rocket is coming, just a nice blanket to lay under to collect in your spreads. (I hope)

McInnis 03 said:

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NRD09 said:

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Ok so if crwd is going on a moon mission tomorrow how do i max profit on these spreads? Buy back short calls at open and let the long calls run?

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You could.

I'd suggest not adding risk. Stick to your plan. I don't think a rocket is coming, just a nice blanket to lay under to collect in your spreads. (I hope)

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I can't think of many instances when I would blow up a trade to focus on a naked call. buy more spreads instead.

Thanks for bringing me back to earth guys, I'll be content to close everything out early at max profit

McInnis,

Though I'm generally a hater of MRNA for their history as a company the data is very compelling and assuming that many of our underlying assumptions are correct they will have an effective product to market this year. Unlike most other vaccine producers who have loads of other products, a vaccine would be the only product on MRNAs sheet so I assume will come with a large increase in valuation cause their numbers will look pretty good. Houses like AZN and PFE will also have products to market as well but they carry a large portfolio of products so I assume this won't touch their bottom line as much but they'll still get pops on binary events like phase data release. There is going to be immense pressure for the FDA to approve multiple vaccines by October from the political wing so I expect there to be rapid approval even if phase3 data or safety data hasn't been up to the normal standard. All of the houses will have massive government orders so won't rely on how many people actually get it.

Thanks for the insights as always! With marketable vaccines possible this year, are you playing MRNA or AZN at all?

NRD09 said:

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Thanks for bringing me back to earth guys, I'll be content to close everything out early at max profit

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What am I missing? The stocks like CRWD and NET are mostly flat. I agree they should be up with China acting up and now the Twitter thing, but they aren't.

Twitter had a breach. Life goes on.

Dan Shapiro mentioned in his nightly video recap that TRVN had lots of order flow for the 9/18 $2.5c and $5c. Might be worth checking out.

heard a rumor about Abbott shutting down Texas again. If that were to happen, what stock would you look at shorting?

McInnis 03 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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NRD09 said:

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look at CRWD grinding back up to the 21, just like it did on 6/29

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Now get DDOG and FTNT to do the same.

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THANX HAC0Rz!!

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And that was short lived

aggiedaniel06 said:

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59, you want to see how price action is used to lie to you. Look at the AMZN daily candle yesterday. Long tail to close above the 8 EMA. Super bullish right?

I bet a bunch of people bought AMZN calls at close yesterday.

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Took a quick closer look.. wish I had time to dress up a couple of charts but bottom line is that there is no way I would have been buying AMZN calls late in the day Tuesday for several reasons:

• It was the next day after a huge blow off top bearish engulfing candle. Reversals after that action usually take at least a couple of days to confirm. Monday's candle was especially spiky tail up and massive engulfing. It's dangerous to mess with anything after that until it settles down and gets some new short term price discovery.
• It had been very extended from the all the EMAs. Basically it had gotten ahead of itself and needs a few days to consolidate and see if it continues or not. Last thing you want to do is jump the gun on options especially.
• It flushed early in the day into no man's land kinda in between the 8 & 21. Usually when it gets in the middle, it either touches or gets really close to the 21. Looks like that has happened 5 times since April. Each time it tested the clear trend line support that is about 2900 right now (and also the 21 EMA).
• After the big early morning dip, it set up a clear sideways channel on the hourly. All that end of day surge did was put it right back at the top of the channel. It was sideways support just above 3000.
• The daily candle was still red with lower low and lower high. It didn't even get back above either of Monday's close or Tuesday's open. Not a green reversal hammer (like SQ).
• The real tricks were yesterday when 1) it went to 3094 at 8:44. I bet some jumped the gun thinking that was confirmation. It quickly reversed off that. 2) it lost 3000 down to 2075 and didn't go ahead and flush to 2900. instead it quickly reversed back over 3000. So now clear channel sideways ~3000 - ~3090.
• RULE: never buy options at the end of the day. Wait for directional confirmation the next day and enter in the first hour or so of trading if you have any confidence in direction.

You can say that 7/14 looked a lot like 6/29 but there were 2 major but subtle differences. 1) the 21 EMA had been tested (just above) and 2) it had not been nearly as extended as it was last week.

If you're looking for a good AMZN entry, look for a red open V bounce today right off ~2900. I'd think that would be good for at least a nice quick bounce to 3000-3025. Then if you get a good close with a green hammer and 21 test complete, odds are move in favor of trend continuation.

SQ had some somewhat similar action Tuesday but noticeable differences that would have made it a perfect day trade. It flushed straight down to the 21 daily EMA and bounced straight back to the 8 EMA a few hours later. Notice how on the 60 minute chart on Tuesday, SQ had stacked higher lows and higher highs trendline throughout the day. It was rising support throughout the day where AMZN was sideways. It put in a nice green reversal hammer on the daily that had perfectly tested the 21 and closed right on the 8. The hammer got back into the big red candle from Monday and closed over 20% back into it. SQ was clearly the better set up for short term trades. It did have a little flush yesterday but quickly got back on rising support trend. It looks way stronger short term than AMZN.

One other note, if you're buying options at end of day, you better be ready to sell at the open the next day if it gaps up.

This is common action with stocks that have reversed off of overbought extensions. Massive momentum gets extended, runs out of short term buyers, profit takers come in, and then flush to 21 daily EMA for a bounce and some sidewaysish move before momentum continues. Lose that 21 a couple of consecutive days, and the trend is reset.

Hope this makes sense. Could verbally explain in about 5-10 minutes, but writing it out like this 1) makes me think harder and learn plus retain more and 2) gives me a nice fun mid morning break from 'real' work!

Quick clarification PSA on EMAs since many of you seem to be using them more. They are not the end all be all but just a big part of the crazy equation. I like them because they are so simple and an easy way to visualise momentum without overcomplicating things. I like to use tools that I can understand what they mean vs complicated statistical models. That's just me and my style. Like anything, there is no silver bullet in this game.

The best use I've found for them is knowing when to keep fishing and knowing when to cut bait. When trying to time entries and exits, they are a bit less useful than they are for knowing when to hold em and knowing when to fold em.

NRD09 said:

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Thanks for bringing me back to earth guys, I'll be content to close everything out early at max profit

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If your heart is set on spending more, open might could be a good time to buy back that short call

Golf1 said:

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heard a rumor about Abbott shutting down Texas again. If that were to happen, what stock would you look at shorting?

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Heard this same rumor, Abbott will announce on this Friday, for 2 weeks and will be re-evaluated on the 3rd/4th. Will see if it's actually true or not.

Rice and Fries said:

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Golf1 said:

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heard a rumor about Abbott shutting down Texas again. If that were to happen, what stock would you look at shorting?

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Heard this same rumor, Abbott will announce on this Friday, for 2 weeks and will be re-evaluated on the 3rd/4th. Will see if it's actually true or not.

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Who knows if it's true (it's being posted on the politics board 2-3 times a day now) but he will be committing politics suicide if he does it...I'd be surprised

topher06 said:

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NRD09 said:

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Thanks for bringing me back to earth guys, I'll be content to close everything out early at max profit

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What am I missing? The stocks like CRWD and NET are mostly flat. I agree they should be up with China acting up and now the Twitter thing, but they aren't.

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I'll be shocked if crwd doesn't run today. Ceo was pumping on cnbc last night. Guess we'll see. I could close most of the spreads out and keep one or two long calls as a gamble?

the rumor has been floating around all week, and they are all "somebody knows somebody who 'works in Austin' and their boss told them to buy tp before the weekend wink wink" feels very fabricated/contrived. If it's true it's the worst kept secret in govt, but i think it's people trying to incite drama

Rice and Fries said:

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Golf1 said:

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heard a rumor about Abbott shutting down Texas again. If that were to happen, what stock would you look at shorting?

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Heard this same rumor, Abbott will announce on this Friday, for 2 weeks and will be re-evaluated on the 3rd/4th. Will see if it's actually true or not.

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Don't believe it's true. I had a couple friends on Tuesday that were adamant Abbott was closing down the state on Wednesday. I provided them a radio interview Abbott had just done like an hour before stating that there would be no shutdown regardless of the rumors swirling. He just continued to push wearing your masks.