La Bamba said:

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If SPY 283 breaks and confirms, do we think 293 (61.8% retracement) is next? Don't see much in the way of resistance till then.

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As much as my mind tells me that concept is insane, I think if we close above 285, it will be inevitable to get close to or hit 293. QQQ has hits its 61.8% retracement, only down something like 1.5% YTD, which is just f'ing mind numbing to me. There could also be a trap, where SPY teases 286-287 and then the rug gets pulled. We'll probably have another 5M jobless claims this week. At some point fundamentals and gravity are going to matter.

Agree.

I wonder if the market is expecting a large amount of temp layoffs, which is happening. I saw from Dept of Labor where around 83% of the layoffs are temp. That is all I can figure.

As for fundamentals, the market must be looking all the way into 2022. The latest 2021 #s still put us, at best, 15 PE

Starting to wonder if even the market knows what it's doing.

BA and GE were the big at risk names in headlines pre-CV19. When investors are discussing GE's accounting and BA's Max issues, then you will know the market is looking at fundamentals again. Until then, it's all TA trending and CV19 progress.

For those of you working with Dan Shepp's recommendations, how is he faring today?

CSTXAg92 said:

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For those of you working with Dan Shepp's recommendations, how is he faring today?

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He's played NVDA, TSLA, and BA

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

OverSeas AG said:

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Harkrider 93 said:

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Agree.

I wonder if the market is expecting a large amount of temp layoffs, which is happening. I saw from Dept of Labor where around 83% of the layoffs are temp. That is all I can figure.

As for fundamentals, the market must be looking all the way into 2022. The latest 2021 #s still put us, at best 15, PE

Starting to wonder if even the market knows what it's doing.

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I dont think so. I keep looking at volumes. I think the people that know what they are doing are staying on the sidelines. while people like me... are either getting lucky or setting themselves up for failure!

:-)

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Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

I don't think the market knows what to think. 'Pookie just reported over on the politics board that Gold's Gym told employees today that they aren't reopening any of the gyms in the St Louis market.

Not sure if this gets counted as a corona death or they are just using it to get out of lease contracts. Either way, I think there is a lot more of this to come.

oldarmy1 said:

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We have major supports at the beginning stages of throwing in the towel.

ADBE $300 is significant. Very easy to see the big names flash well below in the coming day(s). Some LEAP options opportunities will be presented.

SPCE is down to $15 and I could see it flash to close to $10. That would be a $20 LEAP example out to 2022 at that point.

Yes things are going to be nasty but the world isn't ending.

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Great call on SPCE. It flashed below $10 after this post and has now recovered to above $20 today, all within a month.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

So you nailed entry into the AMZN despite both us messing up the exit. When do we put this mofo, it HAS to model T.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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La Bamba said:

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If SPY 283 breaks and confirms, do we think 293 (61.8% retracement) is next? Don't see much in the way of resistance till then.

---

As much as my mind tells me that concept is insane, I think if we close above 285, it will be inevitable to get close to or hit 293. QQQ has hits its 61.8% retracement, only down something like 1.5% YTD, which is just f'ing mind numbing to me. There could also be a trap, where SPY teases 286-287 and then the rug gets pulled. We'll probably have another 5M jobless claims this week. At some point fundamentals and gravity are going to matter.

---

This tends to be a traders thought process. Not saying right or wrong, but realize the purpose of massive selloffs is to shake large populations of weak holders out so that resistance levels are easier to break through longer term.

When you trade you close out your profits and the natural mindset is "ok that was a wild ride - lets play the down side". Well the institutional money has a lot more horizon and skin in the game, so current valuations are secondary to big money objectives.

fair point. to quote Buffet, when there is nothing to do, do nothing. I'm waiting. While these lay offs are going to be temporary, things I am thinking about are:

• unemployment will accelerate to 15-20%. That is near depression numbers
• It will not be a one day return to labor, but gradual reintroduction that could possibly last a year or more
• consumer behavior may not snap back to what it was. It may be close, but even a 10% sentiment shift will impact the market
• Certain industries will be suppressed until there is a vaccine or therapeutic that works
• Until there is a vaccine / therepeutic, the best possible case is partial re-opening, persisting unemployment and reduced economic activity
• Government subsidy cannot proxy and replace growth; what the fed is doing is artificial, but is buoying the market up. Each subsequent cannon shot from the fed is less effective than the prior given artificiality.
• There will be no choice but to open the economy because the impacted public will demand it, but re: consumer behavior, it will not be the same. Unemployment likely to persist at 10% until vaccine
• Persisting unemployment drives defaults and bankruptcies
• There will be more infection waves and stops/starts; the heavy lift to contact trace cannot get set up quickly enough to prevent at least another wave in the summer

McInnis 03 said:

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So you nailed entry into the AMZN despite both us messing up the exit. When do we put this mofo, it HAS to model T.

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I ain't touching a short on AMZN anytime soon

Mtn_Guide said:

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I don't think the market knows what to think. 'Pookie just reported over on the politics board that Gold's Gym told employees today that they aren't reopening any of the gyms in the St Louis market.

Not sure if this gets counted as a corona death or they are just using it to get out of lease contracts. Either way, I think there is a lot more of this to come.

---

I'm an optimist at heart, but it's events like this, plus hundreds of other ripple effects of what's taken place over the last 5-6 weeks that make me think *there's no way* the market has effectively priced all of the damage in to prices.

OverSeas AG said:

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Harkrider 93 said:

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Agree.

I wonder if the market is expecting a large amount of temp layoffs, which is happening. I saw from Dept of Labor where around 83% of the layoffs are temp. That is all I can figure.

As for fundamentals, the market must be looking all the way into 2022. The latest 2021 #s still put us, at best 15, PE

Starting to wonder if even the market knows what it's doing.

---

I dont think so. I keep looking at volumes. I think the people that know what they are doing are staying on the sidelines. while people like me... are either getting lucky or setting themselves up for failure!

:-)

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Today's volume is average to above-average of pre-COVID crash numbers. SPY average volume Apr 15 '19 - Feb 20 2020 was 65 million. We're at 80 mil today. And we still have another two hours left of trading.

IrishTxAggie said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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So you nailed entry into the AMZN despite both us messing up the exit. When do we put this mofo, it HAS to model T.

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I ain't touching a short on AMZN anytime soon

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with stimulus money, do you think people will use it on amazon or support local. Will that have an impact on them?

SQQQ puts doing really well. That's not my typical fashion. Time to hold them until they're worthless!

AgShaun00 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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So you nailed entry into the AMZN despite both us messing up the exit. When do we put this mofo, it HAS to model T.

---

I ain't touching a short on AMZN anytime soon

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with stimulus money, do you think people will use it on amazon or support local. Will that have an impact on them?

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I think it'll be a combo of both. A lot will depend on how soon the local is able to open back up. As stands right now, it's not easy to support local with everything still closed down

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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fair point. to quote Buffet, when there is nothing to do, do nothing. I'm waiting. While these lay offs are going to be temporary, things I am thinking about are:

• unemployment will accelerate to 15-20%. That is near depression numbers
• It will not be a one day return to labor, but gradual reintroduction that could possibly last a year or more
• consumer behavior may not snap back to what it was. It may be close, but even a 10% sentiment shift will impact the market
• Certain industries will be suppressed until there is a vaccine or therapeutic that works
• Until there is a vaccine / therepeutic, the best possible case is partial re-opening, persisting unemployment and reduced economic activity
• Government subsidy cannot proxy and replace growth; what the fed is doing is artificial, but is buoying the market up. Each subsequent cannon shot from the fed is less effective than the prior given artificiality.
• There will be no choice but to open the economy because the impacted public will demand it, but re: consumer behavior, it will not be the same. Unemployment likely to persist at 10% until vaccine
• Persisting unemployment drives defaults and bankruptcies
• There will be more infection waves and stops/starts; the heavy lift to contact trace cannot get set up quickly enough to prevent at least another wave in the summer

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Bolded part:

What happens when the fed begins to buy equities? and what says that they already haven't started buying?

This is fantastic. Pretty much how I think and I get myself to the point saying "well wtf do I do now?" LOL

I know a couple of you on this thread like WYNN. Does anyone think we'll see it in the 50s again? Currently 73

oldarmy1 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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La Bamba said:

---

If SPY 283 breaks and confirms, do we think 293 (61.8% retracement) is next? Don't see much in the way of resistance till then.

---

As much as my mind tells me that concept is insane, I think if we close above 285, it will be inevitable to get close to or hit 293. QQQ has hits its 61.8% retracement, only down something like 1.5% YTD, which is just f'ing mind numbing to me. There could also be a trap, where SPY teases 286-287 and then the rug gets pulled. We'll probably have another 5M jobless claims this week. At some point fundamentals and gravity are going to matter.

---

This tends to be a traders thought process. Not saying right or wrong, but realize the purpose of massive selloffs is to shake large populations of weak holders out so that resistance levels are easier to break through longer term.

When you trade you close out your profits and the natural mindset is "ok that was a wild ride - lets play the down side". Well the institutional money has a lot more horizon and skin in the game, so current valuations are secondary to big money objectives.

---

Probably why riding the market trend is a winning play. Football analogy - take what the market gives you.

Anyone playing airline earnings? UAL announces after close today.

Could be a good entry point on JPM

How many times do I come here to type a stock and when I look back its broken out?!

tam2002 said:

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I know a couple of you on this thread like WYNN. Does anyone think we'll see it in the 50s again? Currently 73

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I think it has to come back. Nothing is open at the strip. Even when it does, who knows when, who's getting on the plane to Vegas? What businesses are going to schedule Vegas conferences? I think it comes back.

Note: I'm in wynn with low 50's cost basis.

I tend to think so too. Wanting to add to my position on it but I'm in at low 50s as well. ERI is another casino property I'm in on that I like with their coming acquisition of CZR. Want to add to it too but I'd like to see another dip

gotsand said:

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Anyone playing airline earnings? UAL announces after close today.

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If you are thinking of a buy and hold strategy I would rather play Expedia or Booking. Play travel as a whole. There is too much risk exposure in any one airline.

gotsand said:

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Anyone playing airline earnings? UAL announces after close today.

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They are next week I thought?