As much as my mind tells me that concept is insane, I think if we close above 285, it will be inevitable to get close to or hit 293. QQQ has hits its 61.8% retracement, only down something like 1.5% YTD, which is just f'ing mind numbing to me. There could also be a trap, where SPY teases 286-287 and then the rug gets pulled. We'll probably have another 5M jobless claims this week. At some point fundamentals and gravity are going to matter.La Bamba said:
If SPY 283 breaks and confirms, do we think 293 (61.8% retracement) is next? Don't see much in the way of resistance till then.
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Last: 2 min ago by EngrAg14
Agree.
I wonder if the market is expecting a large amount of temp layoffs, which is happening. I saw from Dept of Labor where around 83% of the layoffs are temp. That is all I can figure.
As for fundamentals, the market must be looking all the way into 2022. The latest 2021 #s still put us, at best, 15 PE
Starting to wonder if even the market knows what it's doing.
I wonder if the market is expecting a large amount of temp layoffs, which is happening. I saw from Dept of Labor where around 83% of the layoffs are temp. That is all I can figure.
As for fundamentals, the market must be looking all the way into 2022. The latest 2021 #s still put us, at best, 15 PE
Starting to wonder if even the market knows what it's doing.
BA and GE were the big at risk names in headlines pre-CV19. When investors are discussing GE's accounting and BA's Max issues, then you will know the market is looking at fundamentals again. Until then, it's all TA trending and CV19 progress.
For those of you working with Dan Shepp's recommendations, how is he faring today?
He's played NVDA, TSLA, and BACSTXAg92 said:
For those of you working with Dan Shepp's recommendations, how is he faring today?
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
DON'T TREAD ON ME
OverSeas AG said:I dont think so. I keep looking at volumes. I think the people that know what they are doing are staying on the sidelines. while people like me... are either getting lucky or setting themselves up for failure!Harkrider 93 said:
Agree.
I wonder if the market is expecting a large amount of temp layoffs, which is happening. I saw from Dept of Labor where around 83% of the layoffs are temp. That is all I can figure.
As for fundamentals, the market must be looking all the way into 2022. The latest 2021 #s still put us, at best 15, PE
Starting to wonder if even the market knows what it's doing.
:-)
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
DON'T TREAD ON ME
I don't think the market knows what to think. 'Pookie just reported over on the politics board that Gold's Gym told employees today that they aren't reopening any of the gyms in the St Louis market.
Not sure if this gets counted as a corona death or they are just using it to get out of lease contracts. Either way, I think there is a lot more of this to come.
Not sure if this gets counted as a corona death or they are just using it to get out of lease contracts. Either way, I think there is a lot more of this to come.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
My summer 2020 body has been postponed until 2021...or 2022Mtn_Guide said:
I don't think the market knows what to think. 'Pookie just reported over on the politics board that Gold's Gym told employees today that they aren't reopening any of the gyms in the St Louis market.
Not sure if this gets counted as a corona death or they are just using it to get out of lease contracts. Either way, I think there is a lot more of this to come.
Great call on SPCE. It flashed below $10 after this post and has now recovered to above $20 today, all within a month.oldarmy1 said:
We have major supports at the beginning stages of throwing in the towel.
ADBE $300 is significant. Very easy to see the big names flash well below in the coming day(s). Some LEAP options opportunities will be presented.
SPCE is down to $15 and I could see it flash to close to $10. That would be a $20 LEAP example out to 2022 at that point.
Yes things are going to be nasty but the world isn't ending.
Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess
DON'T TREAD ON ME
So you nailed entry into the AMZN despite both us messing up the exit. When do we put this mofo, it HAS to model T.
This tends to be a traders thought process. Not saying right or wrong, but realize the purpose of massive selloffs is to shake large populations of weak holders out so that resistance levels are easier to break through longer term.$30,000 Millionaire said:As much as my mind tells me that concept is insane, I think if we close above 285, it will be inevitable to get close to or hit 293. QQQ has hits its 61.8% retracement, only down something like 1.5% YTD, which is just f'ing mind numbing to me. There could also be a trap, where SPY teases 286-287 and then the rug gets pulled. We'll probably have another 5M jobless claims this week. At some point fundamentals and gravity are going to matter.La Bamba said:
If SPY 283 breaks and confirms, do we think 293 (61.8% retracement) is next? Don't see much in the way of resistance till then.
When you trade you close out your profits and the natural mindset is "ok that was a wild ride - lets play the down side". Well the institutional money has a lot more horizon and skin in the game, so current valuations are secondary to big money objectives.
fair point. to quote Buffet, when there is nothing to do, do nothing. I'm waiting. While these lay offs are going to be temporary, things I am thinking about are:
- unemployment will accelerate to 15-20%. That is near depression numbers
- It will not be a one day return to labor, but gradual reintroduction that could possibly last a year or more
- consumer behavior may not snap back to what it was. It may be close, but even a 10% sentiment shift will impact the market
- Certain industries will be suppressed until there is a vaccine or therapeutic that works
- Until there is a vaccine / therepeutic, the best possible case is partial re-opening, persisting unemployment and reduced economic activity
- Government subsidy cannot proxy and replace growth; what the fed is doing is artificial, but is buoying the market up. Each subsequent cannon shot from the fed is less effective than the prior given artificiality.
- There will be no choice but to open the economy because the impacted public will demand it, but re: consumer behavior, it will not be the same. Unemployment likely to persist at 10% until vaccine
- Persisting unemployment drives defaults and bankruptcies
- There will be more infection waves and stops/starts; the heavy lift to contact trace cannot get set up quickly enough to prevent at least another wave in the summer
I ain't touching a short on AMZN anytime soonMcInnis 03 said:
So you nailed entry into the AMZN despite both us messing up the exit. When do we put this mofo, it HAS to model T.
I'm an optimist at heart, but it's events like this, plus hundreds of other ripple effects of what's taken place over the last 5-6 weeks that make me think *there's no way* the market has effectively priced all of the damage in to prices.Mtn_Guide said:
I don't think the market knows what to think. 'Pookie just reported over on the politics board that Gold's Gym told employees today that they aren't reopening any of the gyms in the St Louis market.
Not sure if this gets counted as a corona death or they are just using it to get out of lease contracts. Either way, I think there is a lot more of this to come.
Today's volume is average to above-average of pre-COVID crash numbers. SPY average volume Apr 15 '19 - Feb 20 2020 was 65 million. We're at 80 mil today. And we still have another two hours left of trading.OverSeas AG said:I dont think so. I keep looking at volumes. I think the people that know what they are doing are staying on the sidelines. while people like me... are either getting lucky or setting themselves up for failure!Harkrider 93 said:
Agree.
I wonder if the market is expecting a large amount of temp layoffs, which is happening. I saw from Dept of Labor where around 83% of the layoffs are temp. That is all I can figure.
As for fundamentals, the market must be looking all the way into 2022. The latest 2021 #s still put us, at best 15, PE
Starting to wonder if even the market knows what it's doing.
:-)
Quote:
On any given trading day on the New York Stock Exchange, two billion to six billion shares exchange hands. Who are all these people, why are they buying and selling, and how do they know what to do?
In many cases, the reasons are not what you think.
A pension plan may follow an asset allocation strategy for a portion of its investments, and at the end of the quarter, they need to rebalance. If stocks are down enough, they automatically buy more. Their buying reflects nothing about their current market sentiment and everything about the discipline they follow.
Yes, you may think. That sounds logical. Maybe you should rebalance now, which means adding more to the things that are down.
On that same day, a mutual fund may get redemption requests as people get scared and pull out of the market. Regardless of whether the fund manager thinks the market will be going up or down, the fund may be required to sell shares to raise cash. The news reports on the number of redemptions happening. "People are going to cash," you hear. Maybe you, too, should sell and wait this out.
Then you hear about a giant investment advisory firm and read their white papers. Hmmm. They follow a valuation approach based on their outlook over the next seven years. They are buying because price-to-earnings ratios of an asset class look low enough that the long-term potential for returns appears attractive. That sounds smart. Perhaps you should buy. But then you find out they are buying emerging markets and small-cap value. Oh, that sounds scary. Maybe you should hang tight.
Meanwhile, a hedge fund is selling positions to raise cash to pay down debt because it borrowed to invest. You may not know the reasons why, but you hear that a big-name money manager is selling. If they are selling, well, shouldn't you be too?
Then there are the day traders, looking at charts and graphs and applying what is called technical analysis. A golden cross pattern, you hear? What's that mean? You look it up on the internet. It sounds like a buying signal. Yes, you think, "I should be buying."
Then there's that newsletter you read that focuses on macroeconomics. Unemployment will be skyrocketing. GDP will be down. People are saying it will be bad, really bad. Shouldn't you be selling?
But wait, then you read that the stock market is a leading economic indicator. The market dropped substantially as it priced in the recession. Is it now looking forward, pricing in the recovery? Did you miss the bottom? Maybe it's not too late. Perhaps you should be buying.
Then you've got John Smith, who just got his stimulus check. He's never owned a stock in his life, but he heard this tech company was coming out with something. He opens an account and buys 100 shares. On that same day, his brother Sam loses his job. Sam has a small stock account and owns shares of that tech company. He needs cash to tide him over while he's unemployed, so he sells.
And you've got Sally Sue, with a steady paycheck and with each paycheck she contributes to her 401(k) and keeps buying. And Mary, who receives an inheritance. She sells and uses the cash to buy her dream home.
Yes, on any given trading day, billions of shares exchange hands. And most of them have a good reason. The need for cash drives some of them. But for those who don't need the money right now, how do they know what to do? Most of them have extensive training.
The long-term investors have a discipline they are following. The day traders have a strategy they use. The institutional investors base their decisions on an outcome they want to achieve over a defined period. And time frames can vary depending on who's doing the investing. It may be a few hours for a day trader, a calendar quarter for a hedge fund, or 30 years for a pension plan.
If you're not sure whether you should buy or sell, maybe you are asking the wrong questions. What are you trying to achieve, over what time frame, and using what investment approach?
If you don't know the answers, sitting on the sidelines is probably wise.
with stimulus money, do you think people will use it on amazon or support local. Will that have an impact on them?IrishTxAggie said:I ain't touching a short on AMZN anytime soonMcInnis 03 said:
So you nailed entry into the AMZN despite both us messing up the exit. When do we put this mofo, it HAS to model T.
SQQQ puts doing really well. That's not my typical fashion. Time to hold them until they're worthless!
I think it'll be a combo of both. A lot will depend on how soon the local is able to open back up. As stands right now, it's not easy to support local with everything still closed downAgShaun00 said:with stimulus money, do you think people will use it on amazon or support local. Will that have an impact on them?IrishTxAggie said:I ain't touching a short on AMZN anytime soonMcInnis 03 said:
So you nailed entry into the AMZN despite both us messing up the exit. When do we put this mofo, it HAS to model T.
Bolded part:$30,000 Millionaire said:
fair point. to quote Buffet, when there is nothing to do, do nothing. I'm waiting. While these lay offs are going to be temporary, things I am thinking about are:
- unemployment will accelerate to 15-20%. That is near depression numbers
- It will not be a one day return to labor, but gradual reintroduction that could possibly last a year or more
- consumer behavior may not snap back to what it was. It may be close, but even a 10% sentiment shift will impact the market
- Certain industries will be suppressed until there is a vaccine or therapeutic that works
- Until there is a vaccine / therepeutic, the best possible case is partial re-opening, persisting unemployment and reduced economic activity
- Government subsidy cannot proxy and replace growth; what the fed is doing is artificial, but is buoying the market up. Each subsequent cannon shot from the fed is less effective than the prior given artificiality.
- There will be no choice but to open the economy because the impacted public will demand it, but re: consumer behavior, it will not be the same. Unemployment likely to persist at 10% until vaccine
- Persisting unemployment drives defaults and bankruptcies
- There will be more infection waves and stops/starts; the heavy lift to contact trace cannot get set up quickly enough to prevent at least another wave in the summer
What happens when the fed begins to buy equities? and what says that they already haven't started buying?
This is fantastic. Pretty much how I think and I get myself to the point saying "well wtf do I do now?" LOL
I know a couple of you on this thread like WYNN. Does anyone think we'll see it in the 50s again? Currently 73
Probably why riding the market trend is a winning play. Football analogy - take what the market gives you.oldarmy1 said:This tends to be a traders thought process. Not saying right or wrong, but realize the purpose of massive selloffs is to shake large populations of weak holders out so that resistance levels are easier to break through longer term.$30,000 Millionaire said:As much as my mind tells me that concept is insane, I think if we close above 285, it will be inevitable to get close to or hit 293. QQQ has hits its 61.8% retracement, only down something like 1.5% YTD, which is just f'ing mind numbing to me. There could also be a trap, where SPY teases 286-287 and then the rug gets pulled. We'll probably have another 5M jobless claims this week. At some point fundamentals and gravity are going to matter.La Bamba said:
If SPY 283 breaks and confirms, do we think 293 (61.8% retracement) is next? Don't see much in the way of resistance till then.
When you trade you close out your profits and the natural mindset is "ok that was a wild ride - lets play the down side". Well the institutional money has a lot more horizon and skin in the game, so current valuations are secondary to big money objectives.
Anyone playing airline earnings? UAL announces after close today.
Could be a good entry point on JPM
How many times do I come here to type a stock and when I look back its broken out?!
How many times do I come here to type a stock and when I look back its broken out?!
gotsand said:
Anyone playing airline earnings? UAL announces after close today.
tam2002 said:
I know a couple of you on this thread like WYNN. Does anyone think we'll see it in the 50s again? Currently 73
I think it has to come back. Nothing is open at the strip. Even when it does, who knows when, who's getting on the plane to Vegas? What businesses are going to schedule Vegas conferences? I think it comes back.
Note: I'm in wynn with low 50's cost basis.
I tend to think so too. Wanting to add to my position on it but I'm in at low 50s as well. ERI is another casino property I'm in on that I like with their coming acquisition of CZR. Want to add to it too but I'd like to see another dip
Prognightmare said:gotsand said:
Anyone playing airline earnings? UAL announces after close today.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
If you are thinking of a buy and hold strategy I would rather play Expedia or Booking. Play travel as a whole. There is too much risk exposure in any one airline.gotsand said:
Anyone playing airline earnings? UAL announces after close today.
All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others
gotsand said:
Anyone playing airline earnings? UAL announces after close today.
They are next week I thought?
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