Puts flashed green about 25%. I'll take that on these premium burn days.

I've been working on figuring out the same thing. You're right.. The hardest part is figuring out how the Fed will impact potential defaults. They are dropping helicopter money everywhere so it's really hard to figure out who will be left holding the bag, or if anyone will even default at all? It seems the Government is dead set on no defaults of major employers, so anyone with a lot of employees will most likely be protected. So, probably best to look at regional banks or investment co's with regional exposure. That's the way I'm thinking about it.

I would use puts where able to do just that

Agreed. Banks, REITS and CMBS portfolios with regional concentrations that have been hard hit will have a longer tail of economic inactivity. Parts of the country may get back to work in weeks, but some markets will be out of commission for months.

khaos288 said:

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Puts flashed green about 25%. I'll take that on these premium burn days.

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Of course they're about 40% now

GLD might be finding support here, which is nearly a perfect Model T from 3/24's gap.

Let me know if you find anything interesting and I'll do the same. Wish we had a way to trade institutional CDS, Big Short style

AggiePeeps06 said:

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Let me know if you find anything interesting and I'll do the same. Wish we had a way to trade institutional CDS, Big Short style

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i miss riley.

AnyOtherName said:

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AggiePeeps06 said:

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Let me know if you find anything interesting and I'll do the same. Wish we had a way to trade institutional CDS, Big Short style

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i miss riley.

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Where did he go?

Buying Vix calls to 80 with a significant chunk of AUM is nuts. Wonder when he initiated that trade.

GoT sees the bull trap but doesn't seem to respect the model T too much. He sees a reversal well below 50% retracement.

Trust the intraday pivot on volume.

We're not that fare from Model T. One big push day and we're there but if the markets are truly going to be that weak then it is true that it might not achieve Model T. If you are in that camp then be buying some SPY Puts out 10-14 days $245-$230

Same here. I feel like the tourist sitting around folding bad hands hoping I'll be sober enough to play when the time comes.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Same here. I feel like the tourist sitting around folding bad hands hoping I'll be sober enough to play when the time comes.

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I made two trades recently for profit but missed my chance for third this morning. Playing scared right now

Abbott just extended the SAH until 4/30

It won't be obvious until after the opportunity is gone.

The play today was shorting near the AH edge when volume disappeared at highs. It was an obvious edge where you can use a tight stop and let it run down if it wins.

The above video gives a straight-forward presentation on his opinion with technical analysis as to the next move down. He's more bearish than others here, so his answer was a few days, with today potentially being the signal (finish below 2600 S&P). That's how I interpreted this.

Again, this is a newb answer as I most certainly am one... there are reasons like clay mentioned above as to why things are what they are.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Abbott just extended the SAH until 4/30

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just to match the federal recommendation

I suppose strength into close above 2600 would bode well for Model T this week.

wake me when we bottom

hedge_zer0 said:

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wake me when we bottom

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I was an idiot to buy options in this market. Vix is too damn high, LADR has dropped like a stone and I'm red because of the ridiculous premium. Rookie mistake

Any of your guys playing predictit? I got Cuomo as democratic candidate for 8cents. I don't think he gets it, but I bet I can unload at 12-15 or so after New York peaks

Exsurge Domine said:

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I was an idiot to buy options in this market. Vix is too damn high, LADR has dropped like a stone and I'm red because of the ridiculous premium. Rookie mistake

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I'm getting smoked too. I should've listened to Riley's advice. It think it was 2 weeks ago when he said he was switching to long-dated VIX puts.

deadbq03 said:

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Exsurge Domine said:

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I was an idiot to buy options in this market. Vix is too damn high, LADR has dropped like a stone and I'm red because of the ridiculous premium. Rookie mistake

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I'm getting smoked too. I should've listened to Riley's advice. It think it was 2 weeks ago when he said he was switching to long-dated VIX puts.

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In the nov 18p

deadbq03 said:

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Exsurge Domine said:

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I was an idiot to buy options in this market. Vix is too damn high, LADR has dropped like a stone and I'm red because of the ridiculous premium. Rookie mistake

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I'm getting smoked too. I should've listened to Riley's advice. It think it was 2 weeks ago when he said he was switching to long-dated VIX puts.

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Maybe two weeks ago, the premium is still $25/30 for $50 Vix puts in November

So for those planning on shorting a potential low re-test, how are you playing this? I saw OA recommend 10-14 day 240-235 puts. How are others looking at it?

I sold my SPY position today at 260. Patient to let the trade to the downside develop (I.e. can wait if we retest 263 or even break thru it).