La Bamba said:

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So for those planning on shorting a potential low re-test, how are you playing this? I saw OA recommend 10-14 day 240-235 puts. How are others looking at it?

I sold my SPY position today at 260. Patient to let the trade to the downside develop (I.e. can wait if we retest 263 or even break thru it).

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I'm giving up guessing. I'm going to spend 1/3 of my powder at 2300, another 1/3 at 2100, and then anything below that I'll just wait and see.

La Bamba said:

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So for those planning on shorting a potential low re-test, how are you playing this? I saw OA recommend 10-14 day 240-235 puts. How are others looking at it?

I sold my SPY position today at 260. Patient to let the trade to the downside develop (I.e. can wait if we retest 263 or even break thru it).

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I don't think you can do so right now. If you don't have a war chest where you can afford to short hundreds of shares, you'll just need to sit out. I'm showing $7.50 premium for 247 Apr 17 puts. That's ridiculous

All the analysis and touch in the world does nothing if Trump decides on Helicoptering an additional 10k to every American family. There's so much uncertainty right now hence the premium

What is the AH edge?

This thread is supposed to be informative and conversational and the poster is neither. Just spam.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

AnyOtherName said:

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For the newbs in here... if when the Bull Trap ends, is it obvious? Is it a massive day(s) drop or a slow bleed over time to the bottom?

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The trap can be a slow leakage but is generally more like a mousetrap springing where a day like tomorrow, as example say opens 60+ ES points down. Stocks slow bleed more often than macro markets, especially lower volume stocks. That is unless there is some news driven event on a stock or macro level. Then they both will be way down.

After hours or futures low/high. Great reference points. Extremely high odds the low or high gets expanded intraday. .

I noted that this guy is almost exactly in line with my charts. His strong resistance 3 line area is right at 50% retrace.

Any reason why you wouldn't invest in VOO instead of SPY? Seems that the fees are slightly lower on VOO and there may be a slight difference on dividends (but not much)?

Also, think I'm going to be taking some of that out if we get to the 263 line again and then the rest will come out when we test the model T at 280. Will look for re-entry between 220 and 230 whenever we retest the bottom

OverSeas AG said:

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I am still not sure we are bottom, but I do not think it is going to be another 'sky is falling' slide (see caveat below) as I think people are almost getting immune and expecting things such as an extension of SiP. My view point is:

1) We aren't coming out of things until at least May. And if we do not come out by then it will be bad: long term bad and another fast sell off.
2) We aren't going to know about things beyond April until mid-April.
3) I think that if we can get out of this by May, then we are still going to see slow declines as the reality of what we have done economically takes place.
4) there are some darn good opportunities to buy way low compared to 6 weeks ago. If you are buying LONG (say 3+ years) maybe you buy a little here and there. I have been putting on limit orders at some pretty low prices, and seeing if they work. TWLO worked for me today (it closed yesterday at @97, and I bought today at 90.). I have a limited order for XOM at $35 - we will see if it gets it.
5) I am still heavily in cash and am slowly moving back in.

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1) I think this is pretty spot on. I don't think we are at the bottom but I don't think we are that far off from it.
2) I think now is when you will start to seperate the wheat from the chaff. Who is really exposed and who is going to come out of this all roses
3) I'm 50% reinvested in funds and now picking stocks

claym711 said:

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After hours or futures low/high. Great reference points. Extremely high odds the low or high gets expanded intraday. .

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Thanks. What were the highs/lows for AH last night? Are you saying if it dipped big over night, but bounced back prior to opening and then rose to start the day, it's likely it will still revisit, or at least near, the AH low from the night before?

oldarmy1 said:

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I noted that this guy is almost exactly in line with my charts. His strong resistance 3 line area is right at 50% retrace.

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So looks like breaking out above 2641 should push us to model T, and closing below 2541 should put us on path to retest lows.

Maybe positive Trump presser etc. may be enough to Model T this week.

If you believe in the re-balancing story, then big volume will want price to gap down tonight.

Its such a widespread idea though, and those usually are where retail gets trapped.

claym711 said:

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If you believe in the re-balancing story, then big volume will want price to gap down tonight.

Its such a widespread idea though, and those usually are where retail gets trapped.

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Looks like we'll get it

Touchless said:

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claym711 said:

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After hours or futures low/high. Great reference points. Extremely high odds the low or high gets expanded intraday. .

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Thanks. What were the highs/lows for AH last night? Are you saying if it dipped big over night, but bounced back prior to opening and then rose to start the day, it's likely it will still revisit, or at least near, the AH low from the night before?

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This is ES 06-20 contract: Last night low was 2572 and high was 2636.

I was short today and expected a move down from open that didn't materialize with enough momentum (short origin is from an algo). If 2636 broke I would flip long, however I viewed it as unlikely because volume and breadth were not moving to extremes that would indicate a break towards 2700. Since it never did I held short. At around noon I knew we would likely test and break the low. I dont recall the exact statistic but it was something like 90% of days since 2008 expand above the after hours high or low or both. Nice tool to use at times to guide a trade.

Futures already touching 2541

Going to be a circuit breaker after Trump's comments

Exsurge Domine said:

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Going to be a circuit breaker after Trump's comments

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Maybe

ETA: This is what you call ripping the band-aid off.

I've only got short positions now so gimme a fall to 18k, and let me rebuy in with both hands

JMO, but if it doesn't happen this week or early next week it's not going to happen.

Just took $500 in profits from SDOW and SQQQ trading today. I sold most of my position.... which means we will hit breakers down in the morning. You're welcome for assisting.

Not saying I believe it. Just sharing it

China is full of ***** But hey, who better to try and prop up a market?

I think you've left a 0 on the table.

Futures are riding along the 2540 line, wonder if that will hold.....

deadbq03 said:

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GLD might be finding support here, which is nearly a perfect Model T from 3/24's gap.

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I bought a ton of GLD puts today.

I'm sure you're right.

White house is putting pressure to get Avigan approved. I brought up Fuji films / avigan up a few weeks ago:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/white-house-pressures-fda-japanese-drug-157587

I've had a small position since mentioning.