Right now I'm looking to fold some additional cash into the market. The stocks and trigger I'm waiting for:

VTI < $120
CVX < $60

Will we get there in April? Not a trader, just trying to get more time in the market.

Mask makers Monday

Nope

CaptnCarl said:

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Right now I'm looking to fold some additional cash into the market. The stocks and trigger I'm waiting for:

VTI < $120
CVX < $60

Will we get there in April? Not a trader, just trying to get more time in the market.

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I feel pretty confident we will see that.

If mask names start getting hot again, a few names to file away: APT, LAKE and AHPI. Most of those have ramped up and then fallen hard - so careful. But they were the runners when this thing all started.

leoj said:

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FrioAg 00 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Mask makers Monday

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This is the precursor to resuming /opening up things

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How, we can't even get nurses and doctors enough masks to meet their usage needs and now every person in America is going to wear one? Not very realistic given the current circumstances.

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If that is the direction in which the administration wants to go in, then there will be massive amounts of money being thrown at this. I would not underestimate ANYTHING in this market.

France buys 1 Billion masks. Yeah, I think mask names will be hot this week.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6701614/worse-ahead-as-france-buys-billion-masks/

Something I'm keeping an eye on is the big big discrepancy in UVOL-DVOL between 2008-2011 and now. If buy/sell volume picks up, gonna be scary volatile.

A while back you mentioned your indicators changing to green while still months away from a recovery. Is that still the case or has that changed?

Yes the data did indicate that big ass bounce was coming, that indicator did already flip short again. In 2008 it flipped long in Nov 2008, which was a spot to sell. I did have longs last week but started selling futures near 2600 as I said.

That indicator hasn't reached anywhere close to the peak low that 2008 reached, and the data is normalized.

You can kinda see what I'm talking about in public data if you pull up DVOL.

claym711 said:

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Something I'm keeping an eye on is the big big discrepancy in UVOL-DVOL between 2008-2011 and now. If buy/sell volume picks up, gonna be scary volatile.

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Is this the high frequency traders?

CaptnCarl said:

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Right now I'm looking to fold some additional cash into the market. The stocks and trigger I'm waiting for:

VTI < $120
CVX < $60

Will we get there in April? Not a trader, just trying to get more time in the market.

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I'm looking at VHT (Healthcare ETF) When the government says we will spend any amount I think this will perform well.

You mean you are going to short that, right? I would be very wary of healthcare profits right now.

Mtn_Guide said:

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CaptnCarl said:

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Right now I'm looking to fold some additional cash into the market. The stocks and trigger I'm waiting for:

VTI < $120
CVX < $60

Will we get there in April? Not a trader, just trying to get more time in the market.

---

I'm looking at VHT (Healthcare ETF) When the government says we will spend any amount I think this will perform well.

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That sector is going to somewhat risky until after the election imo.

Prognightmare said:

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Mtn_Guide said:

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CaptnCarl said:

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Right now I'm looking to fold some additional cash into the market. The stocks and trigger I'm waiting for:

VTI < $120
CVX < $60

Will we get there in April? Not a trader, just trying to get more time in the market.

---

I'm looking at VHT (Healthcare ETF) When the government says we will spend any amount I think this will perform well.

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That sector is going to somewhat risky until after the election imo.

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I don't see many major changes. White House isn't changing. Even if dems take both houses, they'll have to get past vetos.

I meant if they get the WH.

Prognightmare said:

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I meant if they get the WH.

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Oh yeah. I give it a 1% chance. Biden being the front runner and not even being able to complete a sentence without telling at his base is a non-starter

Government sanctioned ballot harvesting just got codified into law and they're going balls out in the battleground states. Voter fraud will be off the charts. IMO

Bad for markets and all stocks if I'm right and I've never wanted to be more wrong in my life.

I am dead serious

I give the dems 50/50 chance of getting the WH and I just don't see them getting 60 seats in the Senate. And even if they do control everything it's going to take at least a year to get anything passed.

I might be wrong but my thesis is this: Patients are actively avoiding the doctor's offices nationwide. (I'm going to see my back doc on Monday and he said I am only one of 3 patients that day. Everyone else canceled) Hospital censuses nationwide are way down despite what you see on the news about coronaviruses. ER's maybe over run but hospitals have canceled all elective surgeries to save resources. That means less doctor visits, less medicine being prescribed, less everything.

But you can let healthcare problems sit idle forever. People willing to wait and as Corona subsides mid-summer patients are going to flood back into the market because they need medical care. And there are going to be massive backlogs of surgeries and doctors visits.

I don't think the market has priced in the census yet and when it does it will go lower. Even if it doesn't drop significantly lower I think this will be one of the first areas to bounce back.

The big headwind is layoffs and insurance but most of the employees laid off thus far aren't employees with benefits. Even as is VHT is heavier on the product side and lighter on the health insurance side.

Prognightmare said:

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Government sanctioned ballot harvesting just got codified into law and they're going balls out in the battleground states. Voter fraud will be off the charts. IMO

Bad for markets and all stocks if I'm right and I've never wanted to be more wrong in my life.

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I thought historically the markets actually have a higher average performance under democrats, and Biden is about as non-progressive as it gets. I'm not doom and gloom about that 1% chance, but man I just can't see it happening. I could see them flipping the senate, but that's about it. The red base is too strong for Trump.

I've never really been in the healthcare stocks, except pharma, so I am in no position to debate you.

Biden isn't going to be President, his VP will, and if it's Warren that's going to be bad. Biden will either step down or be removed by the 25th A.

President Warren crashes the market.

Prognightmare said:

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Biden isn't going to be President, his VP will, and if it's Warren that's going to be bad. Biden will either step down or be removed by the 25th A.

President Warren crashes the market.

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Oh interesting. Yeah the reason I think he isn't electable is the reason you think it'll be a disaster with his eventual VP. Warren would be an interesting VP, but I think we see Bloomberg or some other non-progressive. No Bernie and no Warren is my guess.

Prognightmare said:

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Government sanctioned ballot harvesting just got codified into law and they're going balls out in the battleground states. Voter fraud will be off the charts. IMO

Bad for markets and all stocks if I'm right and I've never wanted to be more wrong in my life.

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Everything I have seen this did not get in the final bill.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/final-vote-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-now-imminent-amid-tensions-over-provisions

claym711 said:

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Yes the data did indicate that big ass bounce was coming, that indicator did already flip short again. In 2008 it flipped long in Nov 2008, which was a spot to sell. I did have longs last week but started selling futures near 2600 as I said.

That indicator hasn't reached anywhere close to the peak low that 2008 reached, and the data is normalized.

You can kinda see what I'm talking about in public data if you pull up DVOL.

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What data were you looking at? Curious for my own education.