Every key company in XLP is killing it, was at Sam's today in ATX, just amazed to see so many empty shelves and rationing of 1 per person items. I have heard that some distributors are asking partners for what would normally be 8-10 weeks of inventory in one purchase because of demand... the Q1 numbers for some staples companies I believe will be well above analyst estimates. Avoid everything else, who knows where this market clears before we get any good news. We desperately need treatments, testing, ventilators, etc. before any of this clears up.

It took 1.5 hours to get on with a Citi rep today and now on hold while he calls another branch. lol This sucks.

AgOutsideAustin said:

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ehrmantraut said:

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I think historical bear market averages have to be considered at some point. We've already eclipsed the average (about 30%).

Unless this is significantly worse than anything else we've ever seen, I can't see it going much lower than Dow 17,000.


A month ago, we were all expecting a relatively positive year because the fundamentals were good. That's all changed now, but not THAT much

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Really ? How old are you ?

I helped my Dad move the station wagon up in the gas station line during Carter, dot com bust, 9/11, bank bust, and now this.

I don't know.... something about our country's largest and richest states basically closing up shop makes it change THAT much.

We shall see....

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Sorry to touch a nerve. It was an opinion.

Maybe the world will end as we know it and you'll be right

Prognightmare said:

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This isn't a "lean" time, this is a catastrophe businesswise.

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Right, but I said emergencies too. This is definitely an emergency.

We'll agree to disagree. I perceive this as more than an emergency.

Prognightmare said:

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Aggie_2463 said:

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Just noticed $865 in fraudulent charges on my CC.... still on hold with Wells fargo after 30 minutes, and have never had to wait before....I hate you COVID19!

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Your wife bought 800 shares of RIG on credix.

J/K bro

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You laugh now just wait til that glorious rise to $3 down the road and you coulda tripled up!!!

Prognightmare said:

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We'll agree to disagree. I perceive this as more than an emergency.

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Yeah I gotcha. I actually just said I can see the argument. Stock buy backs are a good way to increase share holder value, but aggressively investing there knowing there's a bailout in case of catastrophe is a slippery slope.

I also don't like to over legislate, but I could see something like requiring a certain amount of operating funds (3-6 months maybe?) for companies that have been previously bailed out in the past 10 years or something?

I don't know. Maybe there's a solution there. Maybe we just continue to allow buybacks and mid disaster bail companies out. Hell with the cash per person they're literally bailing people out too at this point.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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UAL can't even survive a month of a reduced schedule without dramatic action and a "sufficient" government bailout. We would mock any individual as being paycheck to paycheck if they were in that situation. UAL could have used 50% of their FCF on buy backs and had cash reserves like Apple does.

There is a difference between shareholder value and responsible corporate governance. I'm surprised you can't see the difference.

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isnt Apple's cash offshore?

Prognightmare said:

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They were a private company using their own profits, never anticipating a bailout would be needed, to buy back their own stocks. The bailout will have conditions preventing future buybacks. However, we don't need the government ever telling a private company how to use their own profits.

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So you agree with me that they should be allowed to go bankrupt then? They're clearly not responsible enough to manage their net income correctly. Failing to have a black swan plan is an absolute failure of their board and management team.

Prognightmare said:

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They were a private company using their own profits, never anticipating a bailout would be needed, to buy back their own stocks. The bailout will have conditions preventing future buybacks. However, we don't need the government ever telling a private company how to use their own profits.

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Yeah that's the exact middle ground from my post. Bail out with conditions that for a certain time they maintain certain fiscal responsibility levels. When private I wouldn't want to interfere, like I said I don't like over legislation. Once they take a public bail out though, at least force them to structure in a way they won't need another for the foreseeable future.

Majority is, I believe. Nonetheless it is available for use and can be repatriated if needed here.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Majority is, I believe. Nonetheless it is available for use and can be repatriated if needed here.

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and comes with a significant tax if repatriated

I don't think the operational cost of the two businesses is even remotely comparable.

I don't think any airline budgets for this kind of downtime. You can't just let planes sit idle. That is bad bad bad for them.

Touchless said:

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brd79 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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brd79 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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brd79 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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I'm going long DIS and RH, stock not options, at the close.

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I've been watching for your advice about the $100 call under $7. Not doing it anymore?

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Out to 7/17 you won't get hurt in those options

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Yep

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I bought the 7/17 95c @ $9.50.

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I bought 7/17 100c @ $7.19

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Question on this. Why would one choose the the $100 @ $7.19 which is an effective strike price of $107.19 vs the $95 @ $9.50 which is an effective strike price of $104.50? I'm sure that wording isn't correct as well, but I'm assuming you understand what I'm referring to.

I'm trying to figure out which option strike price to go with at times and the premium obviously effects it, but is it best to just go with the lowest overall combination of the two? I would assume the lowest possible profit point would be best, but the lower premiums also have their own advantages obviously.

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For anyone with knowledge, any help with the question above? I'm still new to this and trying to learn the happy medium of weighing the strike price on an option vs the profit line.

Prognightmare said:

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They were a private company using their own profits, never anticipating a bailout would be needed, to buy back their own stocks. The bailout will have conditions preventing future buybacks. However, we don't need the government ever telling a private company how to use their own profits.

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I propose a federally backed 0 interest loan, no stock buybacks until loan is paid back.

Surely they are smart enough to understand that global events such as a pandemic or cyber attack could temporarily disrupt their business? I know the government will save them. They made matters worse by not having any type of cash reserves when they could have in order to temporarily inflate their stock price. But hey, their management got some great RSU uplift until they needed billions from the government after a month.

KorbinDallas said:

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Prognightmare said:

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They were a private company using their own profits, never anticipating a bailout would be needed, to buy back their own stocks. The bailout will have conditions preventing future buybacks. However, we don't need the government ever telling a private company how to use their own profits.

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I propose a federally backed 0 interest loan, no stock buybacks until loan is paid back.

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That's what they're going to get. Not sure if it will be a 0%, but if not it will be extremely low. The will prohibited from doing stock buybacks or giving executive bonuses until it's repaid.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Prognightmare said:

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They were a private company using their own profits, never anticipating a bailout would be needed, to buy back their own stocks. The bailout will have conditions preventing future buybacks. However, we don't need the government ever telling a private company how to use their own profits.

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So you agree with me that they should be allowed to go bankrupt then? They're clearly not responsible enough to manage their net income correctly. Failing to have a black swan plan is an absolute failure of their board and management team.

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If they cause this situation due to bad management or fraud, then yes let them go bankrupt. However, this wasn't due to any of that. If need be put a tax on all flights out of China to the US until the bailout is paid.

Does anyone know the likelihood of statewide shutdown. I'm curios because my lake house is 6 hours away and that's where I want to take the family if it does happen... we're already packed just in case...

Chipotlemonger said:

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Can you work remotely? Just go now, if you can.

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Wife is an accountant for Valero and has to be at work Tuesday and Thursday... I also manage for an oil related company. Valero seems to think they're "essential business" and isn't letting them away from work unless it's an actual shutdown of movement.

I don't think it's very likely to happen in Texas, but if it did happen I'm pretty sure it would be announced several hours before going into effect. You'd probably be able to drive there in time after an announcement and in the case you weren't at your destination yet I'm confident authorities would let you get to where you're going.

What is everyone's opinion on Monday being a large rally?