The financial system is in the process of being destroyed right now, IMO. Any enforced quarantine and the debt bubble will pop and it's done. System will not survive as is.

FWIW I'm hearing rumblings of enforced lockdown of Nyc and San Fran

claym711 said:

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The financial system is in the process of being destroyed right now, IMO. Any enforced quarantine and the debt bubble will pop and it's done. System will not survive as is.

FWIW I'm hearing rumblings of enforced lockdown of Nyc and San Fran

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San Fran announces 24 hour for the next 3 weeks.

NYC I know is coming from a friend who lives there and is plugged in. Worst kept secret.

claym711 said:

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The financial system is in the process of being destroyed right now, IMO. Any enforced quarantine and the debt bubble will pop and it's done. System will not survive as is.

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I think we're potentially heading there now.

The FED was already pumping $Billions into the REPO market for several week/months before this pandemic started.

Now the FED is pumping $1 Trillion a day into it. Velocity has crawled to standstill so it's a perpetual downward spiral.

We're starting to see worldwide central bank coordination now. So how much is it going to take to crawl out of this? Could we see $100 - $300 Trillion printed/deployed when it's all said and done?

Question: who bails out all the central banks if this thing blows? The IMF with the SDR?

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

Also, wouldn't the Fed just keep pumping money into the markets or force banks to give forbearance to customers?

AggiePeeps06 said:

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Also, wouldn't the Fed just keep pumping money into the markets or force banks to give forbearance to customers?

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Literally just start bailing out people and giving money away. It's Being discussed.

Trump wants to win reelection, so in my mind nothing is off the table as far as aiding certain companies (banks in particular). And remember this is like a month slow down at most, things will work out. In a year or two there might be a giant bubble, but we will deal with the problem before us for the time being. Lol

That's assuming we stay the course with the shutdown. I think things get turned back up if there's any real threat to having a massive financial catastrophe unfold. Trump won't let things get that bad. He will claim the media hyped it before things spiral like that.

Also, a lot of companies have paid on fixed expenses for March and have made revenues this month, there not empty at the caufers yet. Assuming local businesses stay afloat by temporarily sending their employees home.. they technically only have fixed expenses for April, maybe May to pay on without revenue. I would think with good charity, government assistance (delayed/waived taxes) most should be fine.

I may be too optimistic or naive, but it feels like things are going to be fine.

ETA: I think this pandemic downturn will lead to new markets in insurance. Things like this will be paid on as coverage, which would allow companies to operate as they have been but make them prepared in case something like this happens again.

Been getting the emails now about retail stores closing. Guessing all of them will follow suit now.

Buy when everyone is fearful or some such.

The gold silver price ratio is at all time highs

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/silver/alltime/

Bought a may crude put 26.5 strike @ 4.08... crude dipping into a 25 handle now

As someone who went this route via 2008/2011... it's not going to jump until after QE starts happening after a market bottom.

Physical always best, but the price dropped 50% on exchange like the market did. Then it came roaring back 2 years later and a bubble formed.

Limit down.

And SPXS up 21% since market close yesterday

Anyone interested in the fujifilms play, there's two tickers FUJIF and FUJIY. FUJIY is an unsponsored ADR meaning it got listed on the exchanges with out sponsorship from Fujifilm (seems illegal???).

How do yall see APA long term? Is $4.50 a ridiculous discount before a rise or will I just burn money?

I am trading, market won't disappear no matter what happens. <5% of my portfolio is in equities.

bailed on my put at breakeven. very skittish

moses1084ever said:

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bailed on my put at breakeven. very skittish

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For what stock?

NIO

my put option on /CL (crude oil)

24 handle on crude now ::facepalm::

This guy is one of the most bearish people based on his past comments over the years.

A couple of interesting points:

• "Given the size of our economy relative to where it was 1015 years ago, it would probably be appropriate for Congress to pass a TARP-style program of $2 trillion.
• Then on the back of that, the Fed would have the ability to introduce a TALF-style program again.
• So, it's going to take some major firepower to resolve the forthcoming problems or the slide will continue.

This is the scenario that leads to global depression. Should policymakers fail to get these sorts of programs in place quickly, there is increasing risk that we could fall into a deep, dark spiral. "

Summary: scary but hope.

Also found this interesting:

• t this stage it would be unwise to make a tactical play to reduce risk, then try to figure out where the bottom is, then get back in. For those types of investors, I think at this point you missed your chance to get out.
• Investors panic too often and try to do too many tactical trades rather than just sticking with their long-term view. The opportunity to sell risk assets has passed.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/03/17/shock-and-awe-falls-short

E said:

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NIO

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Oh boy

Harkrider 93 said:

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This guy is one of the most bearish people based on his past comments over the years.

A couple of interesting points:

• "Given the size of our economy relative to where it was 1015 years ago, it would probably be appropriate for Congress to pass a TARP-style program of $2 trillion.
• Then on the back of that, the Fed would have the ability to introduce a TALF-style program again.
• So, it's going to take some major firepower to resolve the forthcoming problems or the slide will continue.

This is the scenario that leads to global depression. Should policymakers fail to get these sorts of programs in place quickly, there is increasing risk that we could fall into a deep, dark spiral. "

Summary: scary but hope.

Also found this interesting:

• t this stage it would be unwise to make a tactical play to reduce risk, then try to figure out where the bottom is, then get back in. For those types of investors, I think at this point you missed your chance to get out.
• Investors panic too often and try to do too many tactical trades rather than just sticking with their long-term view. The opportunity to sell risk assets has passed.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/03/17/shock-and-awe-falls-short

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Agree with the last 2 bullet points...sucks (as I'm one of those), but selling now wouldn't get me anywhere. Will sell covered calls and try to make some money on strangles for SPY until the volatility dies down