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tailgatetimer10
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In reply to claym711 • 9:15a, 1/26/20
AG
The last month and half you went bull. In return I went very aggressive in my trades because it's not typical of you to have this sentiment. So I appreciate that.

But you have historically been more outspoken when things head south. No one is mad at you or attacking you, I think for the most part it's been pretty positive feedback.
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oldarmy1
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11:55a, 1/26/20
AG
I appreciate Clay's perspective. It is also a good example of why people who trade should take my approach with the SPY hedge.

You buy Puts priced 40-60 cents when 3 days from expiration. Generally it will be 40 cents as I use a strike price $3+ dollars away. Friday we went 60 cents less than $2 away because of the relevant news added to market action.

Remember what was said about the strategy. We don't care if they expire worthless because that generally means the markets are holding steady or moving higher, so your major trades are likely moving up.

Also what was said is that the one time that your hedge "hits" you usually make more than enough to offset the hedges that expired worthless. 60 cent entry topped $3 Friday.

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HustlerAggie
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In reply to ProgN • 12:41p, 1/26/20
Prognightmare said:
Some stocks to look at if one were to think things are about to get crazy (or fear was about to take over):
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/26/what-to-expect-in-pfizers-q3-earnings-update.aspx


However, remember that about 40,000 people die from the common flu in the US every year. (as high as 80,000 some years) Not sure if this will get that bad or not.
Hustle Harder
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gig em 02
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2:13p, 1/26/20
https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/local-biotech-company-developing-coronavirus-vaccine/2250034/?akmobile=y&akdevice=androidphone&sslEnabled=true&&__twitter_impression=true

Any thoughts on what this does to INO?
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docaggie
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In reply to gig em 02 • 3:11p, 1/26/20
AG
Can they show that it's effective? Can they get it out on the market before this runs its course? Can they produce it in sufficient quantities to vaccinate a few hundred million people?
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ProgN
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In reply to HustlerAggie • 3:40p, 1/26/20
It's not the lethality of the virus, is the sensationalism by the media that might spook the market.
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leoj
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In reply to ProgN • 4:17p, 1/26/20
AG
It's also the shutting down of business and transportation of huge areas of China. But yeah, market may be looking for a reason to come down another 1-2% which is great, highly doubt this leads to breaking the up trend especially with earnings this week.
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ProgN
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In reply to leoj • 4:20p, 1/26/20
Agreed
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tamu2009
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 4:29p, 1/26/20
AG
What do you expect those spy hedges to do tomorrow?
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YNWA_AG
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5:19p, 1/26/20
AG
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IrishTxAggie
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5:21p, 1/26/20
AG
Futures looking pretty ugly so far. Down ~1% across all three majors right now
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to YNWA_AG • 5:23p, 1/26/20
AG
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leoj
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In reply to tamu2009 • 5:23p, 1/26/20
AG
tamu2009 said:
What do you expect those spy hedges to do tomorrow?


Well, S&P futures are down 34 right now, so probably looking pretty good on those at the opening unless something changes.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to leoj • 6:39p, 1/26/20
AG
leoj said:
It's also the shutting down of business and transportation of huge areas of China. But yeah, market may be looking for a reason to come down another 1-2% which is great, highly doubt this leads to breaking the up trend especially with earnings this week.
and this is coinciding with chinese new year where no one works for a month plus anyway. If ever there was a good time for this outbreak it was now.
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oldarmy1
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In reply to leoj • 6:44p, 1/26/20
AG
leoj said:
tamu2009 said:
What do you expect those spy hedges to do tomorrow?


Well, S&P futures are down 34 right now, so probably looking pretty good on those at the opening unless something changes.


Right now they would be $9+ or $900+ per contract. Not bad for a $60 hedge, eh?

I know one thing if we are that low when premarket trading opens early am then I am buying SPY shares against 3/4 of them to lock in those gains.
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to Brewmaster • 6:46p, 1/26/20
AG
It's not an entire month, but it's definitely a giant pain in the ass and is typically baked into schedules and commerce already for people that do business with the Chinese. Looks like a lot of places are extending the holiday into the first week of February. My plants are in Zibo and Zhuhai and I'm with the owner all of next week. Neither of our plants are near Wuhan, so we'll discuss and might keep the plants shut out of an abundance of caution. We have enough margin in our lead times to take precautions
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oldarmy1
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6:51p, 1/26/20
AG
Also, remember those SPXS calls out to Feb 21st for $20 each and don't think about them? Yeah, score there too!

Lastly, SLV calls the same out to Feb 21. Let's see if those go in the money. You must be ready to catch the spikes on these because it's the hyper overreaction that tops these out.
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oldarmy1
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7:14p, 1/26/20
AG
That new option trade I talked about....scrap that obviously.
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oldarmy1
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7:15p, 1/26/20
AG
Ok team- So futures are down 26. What is the number one thing we look at first?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 7:34p, 1/26/20
AG
What are more SPY puts for 500 Alex?

and I suppose some cheap calls a month out?
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khaos288
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 7:35p, 1/26/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
Ok team- So futures are down 26. What is the number one thing we look at first?


Stocks overreacting to buy on sale?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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7:36p, 1/26/20
AG
Welp now I regret ditching my tvix
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IrishTxAggie
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7:40p, 1/26/20
AG
Completely guessing, but I think we'll open around 12-15 down and ultimately have a low low green day. I won't be playing I the market much this week because I have to go do my real job this week.
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BenRev09
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 7:48p, 1/26/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
Ok team- So futures are down 26. What is the number one thing we look at first?

Model t?
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Ryan34
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 7:52p, 1/26/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
Ok team- So futures are down 26. What is the number one thing we look at first?
TexAgs. What do I win?
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ProgN
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 8:08p, 1/26/20
oldarmy1 said:
Ok team- So futures are down 26. What is the number one thing we look at first?
Big red candle followed by a big green?
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Tumble Weed
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8:41p, 1/26/20
Big red candle followed by a hammer and confirmation up with volume.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Tumble Weed • 8:54p, 1/26/20
AG
Tumble Weed said:
Big red candle followed by a hammer and confirmation up with volume.
winner winner, chicken dinner (I think)... waiting for confirmation from the boss.
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gig em 02
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 8:59p, 1/26/20
oldarmy1 said:
I wouldn't let go of the SPY puts. However, should a bounce occur you can bet 3300 would be in play so instead of selling the Puts I would buy the $330 calls for 50 cents or under against your 60 cent entries that are now at $3.01.

Be acutely aware of the long red candles, regardless of empatis, especially when they are near upper channel.

I bet the answer can be found in his previous post
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gig em 02
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In reply to docaggie • 9:01p, 1/26/20
docaggie said:
Can they show that it's effective? Can they get it out on the market before this runs its course? Can they produce it in sufficient quantities to vaccinate a few hundred million people?
To be honest I am really only concerned about the next 30-60 days, they won't even have it ready for human testing until the summer. Just curious if anyone has seen similar psychological reactions to this type of activity moreso than concrete technical factors.
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pfo
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 9:24p, 1/26/20
AG
oldarmy1 said:
Ok team- So futures are down 26. What is the number one thing we look at first?


Your next post.
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oldarmy1
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9:25p, 1/26/20
AG
The very first thing a trader does is know the gaps. Get targets mapped out for the stock bargain season.
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jtmoney03
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 9:39p, 1/26/20
AG
Would stocks announcing earnings this week be a good place to start? Particularly ones closing AH tomorrow through PM on Thursday?
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leoj
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10:15p, 1/26/20
AG


For reference this week.
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gougler08
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4:36a, 1/27/20
AG
Boeing plane crashes in Afghan province...down we go
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