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oldarmy1
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Palk's put out an update and told me to please pass on their joy and thanks for what each person has done to help.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/bq485-let039s-support-the-palk-family?viewupdates=1&rcid=r01-157983828228-8ed5f3eb00ec4fb7&utm_medium=email&utm_source=customer&utm_campaign=p_email%2B1137-update-supporters-v5b
oldarmy1
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Top Option Trade coming this weekend if all checks out.
leoj
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Quote:

Telaria, Inc. provides a fully programmatic software platform for publishers to manage and monetize their video advertising. Our platform is built specifically for digital video and to support the unique requirements of connected TV, mobile and over-the-top content. We provide publishers with real-time analytics, data and decisioning tools to control their video advertising business and offer a holistic monetization solution to optimize yield across a publisher's entire supply of digital video inventory.

Our technology enables publishers to manage and deliver their directly sold and programmatic video inventory through a single platform, allowing them to get a complete picture of their sales efforts and maximize revenue from ad placements across channels. Our platform is connected with leading third-party demand-side platforms, or DSPs, through server-to-server integrations, creating a robust programmatic marketplace where publishers can seamlessly transact with buyers. These programmatic transactions fully automate the sales process and enable publishers to increase the value of their advertising inventory by using data to better segment and match their supply with demand.


TLRA no long term debt besides capital leases with the new accounting regulations, FCF positive the last two quarters, connected TV revenue up 115% YoY, total rev up 23% yoy, negative eps continuing to improve towards positive numbers. Stock compensation hurting but they are apparently pivoting from their legacy business to this over the top technology which seems to be very successful, so whatever it takes to get people in to grow the profitable growth side of the business is good.
tailgatetimer10
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claym711 said:

Today was a significant move it is a much higher probability that we see further sell off at least in the vein of July if not deeper, than an immediate bounce back.


I really don't mind your insight. However your Captain hindsight observations are not helpful.. And you've called for a pullback multiple times, and never come back to update your stance after we've seen double rebounds.

I really want to understand your point of reasoning but it's hard to trust with your history
oldarmy1
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Colt98 said:

I picked a really bad day to go to Fayette to fish.


How was the fishing? Going in the morning to lake on property. Earlier this week there were some on nests, some pulled back at first deeper drops (due to cold weather and others staging on points.

Tomorrow with overnight temps warmest in over a week and sun today should be full on spawn action.
claym711
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tailgatetimer10 said:

claym711 said:

Today was a significant move it is a much higher probability that we see further sell off at least in the vein of July if not deeper, than an immediate bounce back.


I really don't mind your insight. However your Captain hindsight observations are not helpful.. And you've called for a pullback multiple times, and never come back to update your stance after we've seen double rebounds.

I really want to understand your point of reasoning but it's hard to trust with your history


Last prediction I made a while back was to not short the Fed after they started the Repo Op

I believe next one I posted earlier this week was warning about extreme market detachment from MAs but doubted downside due to Fed.

Today I said we would not close above 20 points down from open.

Today I'm saying today was significant and I expect further downside.

You're likely a long only trader and simply don't like any bearish data.
leoj
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Go down the chain for more info. Pretty cool.
gig em 02
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If they really have potential to 10x in 2 years would google/Apple/amazon just buy them or copy them before they reach that level?
Colt98
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Every fish we caught was full of eggs. We didn't catch any huge ones. Biggest was a little over 4lbs. Half of what we caught were up on the bank flipping reeds. The other half were in about 15" of water staging. Good luck. Today should be awesome. I caught my biggest fish ever this week two years ago. Cloud cover today with warm temps.... it should be on.
wessimo
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Maybe I've been spending too much time reading the politics board thread on the outbreak, but I'm seriously considering shifting a sizeable percentage of my 401k to cash until this thing blows over.
Colt98
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Problem with that is we could see some huge earnings blow outs.
Maximus_Meridius
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Especially this week. AAPL, AMD, TSLA, GE just to name a few.
leoj
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Only one out of these would be google. Have to remember this is non cable video ads on the seller side.
Tumble Weed
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wessimo said:

Maybe I've been spending too much time reading the politics board thread on the outbreak, but I'm seriously considering shifting a sizeable percentage of my 401k to cash until this thing blows over.


I hope that it drops like a rock so I can buy some more. I will be increasing my positions on Monday.
Ragoo
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Everyone should stay home and watch more on the ROKU devices. Bought more here at 130.
IrishTxAggie
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Ragoo said:

Everyone should stay home and watch more on the ROKU devices. Bought more here at 130.


Dan Shapiro sent out his pivots for the group. Says if it fails 128, it's a short. Not long term. Just in his swing trading style
Ragoo
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IrishTxAggie said:

Ragoo said:

Everyone should stay home and watch more on the ROKU devices. Bought more here at 130.


Dan Shapiro sent out his pivots for the group. Says if it fails 128, it's a short. Not long term. Just in his swing trading style
128ish has been pretty strong support the last 3 months. Earnings coming up in a couple of weeks too.
TriAg2010
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wessimo said:

Maybe I've been spending too much time reading the politics board thread on the outbreak, but I'm seriously considering shifting a sizeable percentage of my 401k to cash until this thing blows over.

I think it's prudent to rebalance your 401K asset allocation if you haven't rebalanced in the last twelve months, especially given that equities had such a banner year in 2019. Otherwise, I think it's foolish to try and time the market by parking a large share of your assets to cash.
ProgN
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IrishTxAggie
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It's being blown out of proportion just like SARS was. The flu killed over 70K people in the US alone last year. Just like the flu, the Coronavirus has killed people that already had weak or compromised immune systems. It'll pass. Just something for the media to get clicks on
Brewmaster
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I don't doubt it, but how does one person know how many 10's of thousands are infected?

From what I'm reading (including Hidden Pivots), it sounds like early next week we get a rip up and some call selling before it comes down further. That could be a short run up though!

stocks like LK probably get the biggest hair cut.
oldarmy1
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leoj said:



Go down the chain for more info. Pretty cool.


Dang I might need to revise my targets.


Nah! Stick to the game plan. Plant a net free and then if it does go 10x you're successful.
claym711
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When any country quarantines say 10,000 people, it's time to pay attention. When one quarantines 50mm, I'm not sure any reaction would be blowing it out of proportion. It's unprecedented.
IrishTxAggie
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It's the Chinese. This is how they operate. I work there. It doesn't help that the population density of Chinese cities is on a whole nother level compared to the US.

The Chinese are also ethnically cleansing an entire region in northern China on a mass scale due to fear of radical Islam.

The Chinese are very much a go big or go home type. This is one of the few instances where a communist government in control is potentially a good thing.

Ebola was scarier to me than this is due to the mode of transmission. This will be out of the news cycle by March at the latest IMO.

I know you're a perpetual bear and the idea of huge market overreaction gets you giddy, but logically this is nothing.
docaggie
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It's an unprecedented response. Not an unprecedented outbreak.
It's how things should proceed when a new illness emerges.

Right now, the media is having a field day, but if the infection / death statistics are accurate, it currently has a mortality rate of 4%. And if the infection numbers are actually 90k? Unless China is hiding 3600 deaths, then the actual mortality rate is much, much lower. The mortality rate of SARS was 13% in those under 60, and 43% in those over 60 y/o. We don't have statistics for mortality rates of the adenovirus (common cold) because no one bothers to even test for it.

Unless something changes, this is going to be worse than the common cold, but far better than the flu. The flu kills tens of thousands in this country yearly, including a couple hundred pediatric patients - and that's with a substantial portion of the population getting a flu shot and having access to antiviral meds for it. But, no one gets overly excited. It's hard to get people to get a flu shot. And yet, I bet people would line up right now for a coronavirus vaccine, thanks to the media coverage.

I have a feeling that every bit of positive and negative news is going to send the market into gyrations, just like the US/China trade deal did. And the first company with a reliable antiviral for it is going to make a mint just off of panic.
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IrishTxAggie
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Username checks out!
claym711
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More false stuff about me. Over the past 6 quarters I have been 60/40 long short. But carry on if it makes you feel better.
59 South
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Y'all take it easy on Clay. He may be more bearish than most but is usually fairly reasonable. If y'all want to pick on a true bear go see if y'all can find ole soup nazi or just search for some of his posts on this board in 2018-2019...
Brewmaster
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59 South said:

Y'all take it easy on Clay. He may be more bearish than most but is usually fairly reasonable. If y'all want to pick on a true bear go see if y'all can find ole soup nazi or just search for some of his posts on this board in 2018-2019...
Yeah if I were to pick on anyone, it'd be the guy on page 1 that said, "Hey, do we really need another stock market thread?!" Yes, yes we do, and how'd that other thread work out? hahaha.

ahh yes and Soup Nazi was on page 1 as well, lol.
IrishTxAggie
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I don't mind bearish sentiment. It's part of the market's ebbs and flows. I have my bearish sentiment on things too (crypto to be specific) and most people here tend to know what I'm bearish on. It's the history of usually only popping in to instill and beat the drum of a bearish sentiment that becomes annoying. Kind of like when Monarch popped up every so often to blame Trump anytime the market dipped 0.5% on a day but was silent when it picked up 1.5% the week before.
Ragoo
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IrishTxAggie said:

I don't mind bearish sentiment. It's part of the market's ebbs and flows. I have my bearish sentiment on things too (crypto to be specific) and most people here tend to know what I'm bearish on. It's the history of usually only popping in to instill and beat the drum of a bearish sentiment that becomes annoying. Kind of like when Monarch popped up every so often to blame Trump anytime the market dipped 0.5% on a day but was silent when it picked up 1.5% the week before.
any day the market is red clay will most likely be posting.
claym711
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Usually in investment communities it's the bears that are constantly triggered. It's refreshing to see perma bulls so sensitive.
leoj
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I don't normally notice this stuff as everyone else apparently does, but check his only two posts in this thread in December.

Also I welcome all viewpoints and posts in here. It's always good to have different opinions, just up to you to decide how seriously to take them.
claym711
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Quote:


claym711
7:30a, 12/16/19
As long as the Fed has abandoned QT, and short of an unforeseeable event, buy all dips. If Fed is pumping, as they have been since Sept, go long with eyes closed


Quote:

claym711
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details

Don't get caught in front of these trains. Choo Choo



Quote:

claym711
5:28p, 1/22/20
Today was quite odd. It had very high odds of ending above open, but we are pretty severe detached from MAs. Last runaway like this was end of 2017. Doubt we get that kind of correction unless fed cuts off Repo Op.



Quote:

claym711
4:49p, 1/24/20
Today was a significant move it is a much higher probability that we see further sell off at least in the vein of July if not deeper, than an immediate bounce back.


There's my last few posts on this thread. Perma bear

Most here just get triggered when any dissenting bearish opinion appears on here.

I recall prior to the last correction I sent up a signal flair as well, was correct, and was told it was just some Trump trade shenanigans that I never could have foreseen. There's always a catalyst for a pullback.
JobSecurity
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I have a feeling this is the first of many. What's the best way to play this? March FXI puts are cheap - perhaps even look further out?
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