Theoretically they are payed by the end user, but it forced the hands of a lot of US companies to change their procurement strategies and look to purchase things that they may have been getting from China on the cheap from US or other countries. Obviously you'd want the US to capture as much of that change as possible, but even if they go to another country in SE Asia or LATAM for the materials, it gets the job done by not going to China. If you get some free time, read up on the China 2025 Plan. It's pretty scary and certain moves they've made in foreign countries is even scarier.Gigemags382 said:IrishTxAggie said:Trump's tax breaks gave him the opportunity to wage this war. The Chinese don't have the same luxury. It is hitting them much harder than it is hitting us. At the beginning of April, they dropped their VAT from 16% to 13%. It didn't even move their needle. I'll give you a quick example of how the Chinese operate and why exports and foreign markets are so vital to them.Gigemags382 said:
Shanghai exchange down over 5% and Shenzhen exchange down over 7%. Yet to be seen about US markets, but S&P futures currently down "only" about 1.5%. Anything to read into this? Is the market sentiment that this does in fact hit China harder - and they may blink?
Or nothing can be read into it at all?
I have manufacturing in China. I sell Product A to a company in the Philippines for $2.50USD/kg. The Chinese gov't gives us a rebates for selling the product outside of the country. Now, that same Product A if I were to sell it to a Chinese company costs ~$3.25USD/kg (All Chinese sales have to be done in Yuan, so that is approximate)!! It literally costs more money to sell the product into their own country because we have to pay the VAT and we lose export rebates that we bake into our export pricing. So, the US tacking on the tariffs is hurting them far more than it hurts us right now. Xi has a lot of power, but the villagers are starting to yell a little louder.
Thanks for the detailed post. That makes sense.
What about everyone basically saying that Trump is an idiot for not realizing that the tariffs are ultimately paid by Americans? From my recollection, that is how tariffs end up working.
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I feel like those NIO calls that got picked up last week won't go over so well now.
Is everyone selling open options at open? Or Holding to see what happens?
I'm giving it 30 minutes to see how the panic plays out, then I'll cut my losses if it hasn't settled. I'm not usually a panic seller and that's what will happen on the open.Shundere said:
Is everyone selling open options at open? Or Holding to see what happens?
my guess is that there would be strong support around 285, if we get there. If it gets below that, things get witchy very quickly
I'm adding to my WLL and LPSN calls at the open. There's plenty of time in those IMO.IrishTxAggie said:I'm giving it 30 minutes to see how the panic plays out, then I'll cut my losses if it hasn't settled. I'm not usually a panic seller and that's what will happen on the open.Shundere said:
Is everyone selling open options at open? Or Holding to see what happens?
Certainly if wood I manufacture in China has a 10-25% tariff imposed then naturally the price Distributors, Wholesaler's and Dealers prices will be adjusted upward. HOWEVER, not a penny of that goes to China. So for American's, yes it's a short term pain but for China its devastating. You may choose a lower priced wood, or a vinyl OR the consumer may simply move to other projects and delay the new flooring until this is resolved.Gigemags382 said:IrishTxAggie said:Trump's tax breaks gave him the opportunity to wage this war. The Chinese don't have the same luxury. It is hitting them much harder than it is hitting us. At the beginning of April, they dropped their VAT from 16% to 13%. It didn't even move their needle. I'll give you a quick example of how the Chinese operate and why exports and foreign markets are so vital to them.Gigemags382 said:
Shanghai exchange down over 5% and Shenzhen exchange down over 7%. Yet to be seen about US markets, but S&P futures currently down "only" about 1.5%. Anything to read into this? Is the market sentiment that this does in fact hit China harder - and they may blink?
Or nothing can be read into it at all?
I have manufacturing in China. I sell Product A to a company in the Philippines for $2.50USD/kg. The Chinese gov't gives us a rebates for selling the product outside of the country. Now, that same Product A if I were to sell it to a Chinese company costs ~$3.25USD/kg (All Chinese sales have to be done in Yuan, so that is approximate)!! It literally costs more money to sell the product into their own country because we have to pay the VAT and we lose export rebates that we bake into our export pricing. So, the US tacking on the tariffs is hurting them far more than it hurts us right now. Xi has a lot of power, but the villagers are starting to yell a little louder.
Thanks for the detailed post. That makes sense.
What about everyone basically saying that Trump is an idiot for not realizing that the tariffs are ultimately paid by Americans? From my recollection, that is how tariffs end up working.
Additionally, manufacturers have sought out alternatives to China. I'm manufacturing in Viet Nam and Cambodia and that production is NEVER going to return to China. China is not only playing short-term pain but they are losing the long-term gain battle with every failed negotiation.
The tariff's are paid for by China. People saying "Trump is an idiot for not realizing the adjusted price over in the U.S." have to be the most dense and short-term thinkers I've ever seen. Not too bright either.
The loss is the loss at the open. So only if a stock goes lower is their anything to consider. Another reason I love options over equities after a recovery is there is well defined loss risk. So I watch the open and see if some key levels are broken and then make adjustments.Shundere said:
Is everyone selling open options at open? Or Holding to see what happens?
If someone overbit on a position then certainly being quicker to pare that position down would be prudent, until a more defined picture develops.
Watch recent support flash that could reach 2870's areas. That gets breached and I will be watching for that larger 2836 gap to get filled, making this a correction.
oldarmy1 said:Certainly if wood I manufacture in China has a 10-25% tariff imposed then naturally the price Distributors, Wholesaler's and Dealers prices will be adjusted upward. HOWEVER, not a penny of that goes to China. So for American's, yes it's a short term pain but for China its devastating. You may choose a lower priced wood, or a vinyl OR the consumer may simply move to other projects and delay the new flooring until this is resolved.Gigemags382 said:IrishTxAggie said:Trump's tax breaks gave him the opportunity to wage this war. The Chinese don't have the same luxury. It is hitting them much harder than it is hitting us. At the beginning of April, they dropped their VAT from 16% to 13%. It didn't even move their needle. I'll give you a quick example of how the Chinese operate and why exports and foreign markets are so vital to them.Gigemags382 said:
Shanghai exchange down over 5% and Shenzhen exchange down over 7%. Yet to be seen about US markets, but S&P futures currently down "only" about 1.5%. Anything to read into this? Is the market sentiment that this does in fact hit China harder - and they may blink?
Or nothing can be read into it at all?
I have manufacturing in China. I sell Product A to a company in the Philippines for $2.50USD/kg. The Chinese gov't gives us a rebates for selling the product outside of the country. Now, that same Product A if I were to sell it to a Chinese company costs ~$3.25USD/kg (All Chinese sales have to be done in Yuan, so that is approximate)!! It literally costs more money to sell the product into their own country because we have to pay the VAT and we lose export rebates that we bake into our export pricing. So, the US tacking on the tariffs is hurting them far more than it hurts us right now. Xi has a lot of power, but the villagers are starting to yell a little louder.
Thanks for the detailed post. That makes sense.
What about everyone basically saying that Trump is an idiot for not realizing that the tariffs are ultimately paid by Americans? From my recollection, that is how tariffs end up working.
Additionally, manufacturers have sought out alternatives to China. I'm manufacturing in Viet Nam and Cambodia and that production is NEVER going to return to China. China is not only playing short-term pain but they are losing the long-term gain battle with every failed negotiation.
The tariff's are paid for by China. People saying "Trump is an idiot for not realizing the adjusted price over in the U.S." have to be the most dense and short-term thinkers I've ever seen. Not too bright either.
Fair enough. I'm sure you've seen the posts over on the politics board about the tariff impacts, so that's what I was referring to, and just wondering about the other side of the coin.
That new article is somewhat telling to me. I think China is getting close to the straw that broke the camels back. This isn't the type of news they wanted out just as everyone is returning from national holiday yesterday.
BTW, if anyone ever works with or for a Chinese company, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, make sure you don't need anything done during a freaking holiday week...
BTW, if anyone ever works with or for a Chinese company, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, make sure you don't need anything done during a freaking holiday week...
What number in the S&P do you think indicates that some level of panic has set in, and a buying opportunity? I don't really see a 1-2% drop as panic given what the market has done recently. 4-5% over the next couple days?
Lol, it's no joke that's for sure
Chines New Year = 2 month delay in shipping!IrishTxAggie said:
That new article is somewhat telling to me. I think China is getting close to the straw that broke the camels back. This isn't the type of news they wanted out just as everyone is returning from national holiday yesterday.
BTW, if anyone ever works with or for a Chinese company, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, make sure you don't need anything done during a freaking holiday week...
YupGigemags382 said:
What number in the S&P do you think indicates that some level of panic has set in, and a buying opportunity? I don't really see a 1-2% drop as panic given what the market has done recently. 4-5% over the next couple days?
Please give me another APPL bite at $170's markets. The health received by that stock has been keeping all Dr's away.
Seatbelts buckled? Here we go.
S&P opens down only slightly more than 1.5%.
Meh.
We'll see where it goes from here. Should be a pretty rocky week. But that open is pretty meh worthy.
Meh.
We'll see where it goes from here. Should be a pretty rocky week. But that open is pretty meh worthy.
We're all the way back to 4/22 levels and close to intra-day 5/2. Yikes!!!
Bought more LPSN calls at .30
Closed the put half of the NVDA strangle. I'll hang onto the calls and see if we get a bounce.
I'm in line for those too. Hoping it fillsPrognightmare said:
Bought more LPSN calls at .30
Bot more WLL calls @ 1.00
OKTA and MIME look good.
I removed all stops on those two
I only had 5 options even open into the weekend, my lowest in several weeks, so it's enjoyable watching and looking.
I removed all stops on those two
I only had 5 options even open into the weekend, my lowest in several weeks, so it's enjoyable watching and looking.
I was expecting worse
Ignore the first 30-45 minutes. After initial market order shopkeeping we'll see whats whatpacecar02 said:
I was expecting worse
DIS earnings this week.
Not sure how to play this, been hearing a ton of money has been going into their streaming service.
But with the huge numbers from End Game, I bet they highlight the estimated final take around 2.5-3 Billion.
I couldn't see it dropping more than $130 from an earnings miss, but could easily see it shooting to 145 with a beat.
Anyone else?
Not sure how to play this, been hearing a ton of money has been going into their streaming service.
But with the huge numbers from End Game, I bet they highlight the estimated final take around 2.5-3 Billion.
I couldn't see it dropping more than $130 from an earnings miss, but could easily see it shooting to 145 with a beat.
Anyone else?
Hey, in a see of red TRNX is green
How much longer are they allowed to be under $1?oldarmy1 said:
Hey, in a see of red TRNX is green
Those NIO calls are holding tough
PINS is green. That's a volatile stock but I like trading it .
Buying a nice size position of CX across all 401k/SEP accounts and even trading accounts. Target of a double on it over the next year. P/E 14.42 with Earnings per share of $0.32 during the sectors 2 year struggle. They reported in line and forward guidance you may recall was improving forward flow going forward.
OLED green on the day
Seen you talk about CX a few times, you must really like that company.oldarmy1 said:
Buying a nice size position of CX across all 401k/SEP accounts and even trading accounts. Target of a double on it over the next year. P/E 14.42 with Earnings per share of $0.32 during the sectors 2 year struggle. They reported in line and forward guidance you may recall was improving forward flow going forward.
Looks like the S&P is settling around down 1%. Frankly I'd say that's a pretty positive US market reception to Trump's tweet
I like the sector and its a well managed Mexico company. They still plan on putting up homes, buildings and stuff in Mexico.Aggie_2463 said:Seen you talk about CX a few times, you must really like that company.oldarmy1 said:
Buying a nice size position of CX across all 401k/SEP accounts and even trading accounts. Target of a double on it over the next year. P/E 14.42 with Earnings per share of $0.32 during the sectors 2 year struggle. They reported in line and forward guidance you may recall was improving forward flow going forward.
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