Sorry, I'm a little confused. Is the current assumption that the market will make a brief retracement back down to (DOW) 16,750, before continuing its recent uptrend to ~17,500? After hitting that upper resistance, it will begin to free fall??

16750 area with the understanding that it's not an exact number. Pull back begun today and while it's probable to see further decline the most important variable is that I haven't seen any readings showing the markets topped yesterday. So I'm sticking with sitting out this current pull back even anticipating it's occurrence.

I would likely take a call option position should we spike down to/below 16750. As for ultimate topping out above 17k (as high as 17500) you'll see me taking short positions above 17100 and a flurry of put options if we close in above 17350.

Now, should we lose 17k again earlier and all my studies show a reversal down then I'll chase entries knowing we aren't coming back. It'seems difficult to give every single "what if" scenario. For example we could bounce around 17 up and below a week or two before anything meaningful occurs. That doesn'the matter in my analysis view.

Let me give everyone a common sense viewpoint on prices. The longer a stock is at a high or low the more likely it will go higher (if at highs) or lower (if at lows). The reason why is because the market makers never like to allow obvious entry points. If a stock has recovered near highs and sits there then a natural impulse to too many traders is to short the stock. You can time your clocks to the markets chasing these shorts out by ticking new highs, if only briefly, before the reversal pivot point. Just think in opposite terms if at lows.

Like a said...days of boredom followed by moments of flurry.

Happy trading!

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We are headed first to the top of the channel. Currently that comes in around 17k DOW, give or take 100.

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Still think the channel is heading down, regardless of the bouncing around within it?

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We are headed first to the top of the channel. Currently that comes in around 17k DOW, give or take 100.

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Still think the channel is heading down, regardless of the bouncing around within it?

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yes

nm

interesting look

Look at first reply to that oil tweet

looking at the Jeff York guys tweets, it seems he has an issue with NDR.

Indeed

DOW closed at 17000.36

They sure aren't going to make it easy are they?

Futures +146

And. Here. We. Go.

Courtesy of the ECB - BTW - This move was expected and factored in to my formula/analysis to get us the upside 17350-17500. Don't listen to the impending talking heads talking about how wonderful it is....what that actually means is "ain't nothing going well so let's throw the kitchen sink at it".

http://news.yahoo.com/ecb-cuts-key-rates-beefs-asset-purchase-programme-132146475.html;_ylt=AwrBT8fGe.FWWCkAY5ZXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEyNTg5NnYzBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjE1OTFfMQRzZWMDc2M-

Draghi with the death by a thousand cuts. Euro goes up against the dollar.

When do they stop this garbage? It won't work.

of course they did

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of course they did

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But trust your money to the majors, eh?!?!

Alright...about to get short

Traveling but quick chart showing the old fake breakout intraday move described previously. Back and forth channel there and then a pop above the upper boundary that sucks in buyers thinking break out only to be crushed with a fast fall trapping the slow to react.

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interesting look

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Knocking my company, but I bought a thousands of CRC shares when we dropped to 30 cents. If Brent prices can hang in there, we'll be ok.

I haven't pulled the trigger on anything, although if I hadn't been traveling I would have been in there on the EMINI short. First thing I thought of actually. Classic sell the news. This is what it looks like. I won't be able to take a serious look at things until this evening but on a cursory glance I haven't see any topped out confirmations.

Getting a little more spread volatility intraday breaking out of the tighter range days. Exactly what we want to see.

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I got out of my short about 5 handles off the low before the real squeeze started. Bears potentially fumbled a key reversal day opportunity with the end of the day squeeze. Probably means we end up squeezing a little higher to the 2020-2040 prior to the FOMC meeting next week.

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In my best Louisiana swamp rat gap toothed voice:

Don be makin no shert sails unteel oldermy seys iz tim!!!

Twas a great day trade no doubt.

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Let's call this my "Juke" or "Fake out" move:

Here is an example of what I'm speaking about on the high side. The first green line shows resistance set that lasted all the way from November through most of December. All those shorts accumulating over that time that hung in there because, after all, "we're still in the game here". But notice the rapid rise that peaks up (happens to be into earnings, which is another lesson in itself). It looks small on the chart but it's nearly a THIRTY DOLLAR upside peak fueled by the big money and, not amusingly, undisciplined shorts getting scared out and actually exacerbating the spike! I absolutely love this pattern occurring when I have aligned my readings/studies showing a macro top. While they are jumping ship I am going in strong. Pull up some intraday charts and you can see this tactic playing out prior to break down/break out movement. Hope this makes sense and helps!

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Check out the 10 day chart and what do you see that occurred? Can you see it?

Time to start eyeing trades this weekend, in preparation for next week.

Anybody calling the top? I've been following this thread and others by Oldarmy and enjoy the conversation and different perspectives.

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"Why don't folks see that stockbrokers can't predict the future? After all, people scoff at astrologers and tarot card readers, but if some guy in a suit says he is a market analyst, people can't wait to hear his insider advice for what to do during a stock run or slump. Investment adviser Mark Matson calls these so-called experts what they are: bullies."

From the book description...

Um, I don't think this is what he is looking for.

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I used to think that while these guys are cannot predict the future, they knew more than the average Joe. I think I was wrong.
I took up a job in a well known financial data firm and my product helped portfolio managers make models for recommending stocks and funds. When I had to troubleshoot some of them from well known IBs, I realized how goofy they were. Everyone seemed to want to come up with their own "secret sauce" and the models got crazier and crazier, just to be different.

Eventually they all used historical data to try to predict the future with mixed results. You can rely on analysts to analyze, but NOT to predict. A good analyst can look at financial information and point out red flags, but predicting stock prices is and assigning "targets" is just a load of crap.

So for the past year, I just buy ETFs based on the Nasdaq and they generally do well. It's been down this year, but much better than putting my life savings in the hands of a single CEO.

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"Why don't folks see that stockbrokers can't predict the future? After all, people scoff at astrologers and tarot card readers, but if some guy in a suit says he is a market analyst, people can't wait to hear his insider advice for what to do during a stock run or slump. Investment adviser Mark Matson calls these so-called experts what they are: bullies."

From the book description...

Um, I don't think this is what he is looking for.

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I used to think that while these guys are cannot predict the future, they knew more than the average Joe. I think I was wrong.
I took up a job in a well known financial data firm and my product helped portfolio managers make models for recommending stocks and funds. When I had to troubleshoot some of them from well known IBs, I realized how goofy they were. Everyone seemed to want to come up with their own "secret sauce" and the models got crazier and crazier, just to be different.

Eventually they all used historical data to try to predict the future with mixed results. You can rely on analysts to analyze, but NOT to predict. A good analyst can look at financial information and point out red flags, but predicting stock prices is and assigning "targets" is just a load of crap.

So for the past year, I just buy ETFs based on the Nasdaq and they generally do well. It's been down this year, but much better than putting my life savings in the hands of a single CEO.

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The book "Fooled by Randomness" has great commentary regarding market predictions. Actually this was one of my favorite books since it got me thinking about things in a new way.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0812975219/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0812975219&linkCode=as2&tag=optionsmcom-20&linkId=7AP2GBWDNTRYJ7PH