VIX getting pretty low

My first SPY puts filled. I am not able to watch the markets while in Honduras but had 4 levels of Puts plugged in based on the 17500 DOW mark.

Hopefully we don't tank on quadruple witching before I can get positioned.

Well. Touching 17.6. Everyone still feeling strong we're headed the other direction? The Bulls are on a tear.

It was discussed on the radio this morning that the Bulls are off and running based upon the "open jobs" report that shows companies have over 5 Million positions unfilled at the moment. I would need a lot more context on that.

1. What companies
2. What positions
3. Pay rate
4. Weekly hours needed per job

I think you would find that a majority of those are low skill part time jobs, and that still points to bad news.

My company (software) of 1,100 has approximately 55 open positions at the moment, but there is a skills gap in our local area that is prohibiting us from filling a lot of them. We can hire on the west coast, but costs per HC are considerably higher and productivity is lower due to a) the lack of f2f interaction b) the four hours per day that are lost due to time differences.

Apple scheduled for new product announcements on Monday, which could be an S&P & Dow bullish catalyst since AAPL is a large weighted component.

I haven't taken time to dig into the charts, but I do think some good entries may be lining up from watching this week's prices.

loading guns on long VXX (volatility vehicle) verticals staggered over several weeks up to a month out

meaning using options to basically buy time to be right on at least some modest correction in the market or even some decent liquidity breaks here and there and the accompanying pop in volatility from either

Well...

quote:

---

Well...

---

X2

Still watching for the top. The feds dovish chatter certainly is giving the markets extra fuel on an already momentum market setting. That will always take you outside of channels. Big gap this morning on even more fed talk will be watched closely. I'll post when the top is in.

Fed talk is always entertaining. They straight up are saying the economy sucks - but free money is intoxicating.

quote:

---

Still watching for the top. The feds dovish chatter certainly is giving the markets extra fuel on an already momentum market setting. That will always take you outside of channels. Big gap this morning on even more fed talk will be watched closely. I'll post when the top is in.

Fed talk is always entertaining. They straight up are saying the economy sucks - but free money is intoxicating.

---

And you have Moodys out there saying, "How can our economy suck so bad when the President says job creation is awesome?"

It is baffling. If Greenspan were in charge, he would certainly characterize this as "irrational exuberance". Lots of money to be made when Old Army calls this top. This particular correction should be swift and deep, because we never should have recovered any of the late2015/early2016 losses as there was no fundamental reason to.

Nikkei dropped 500 points.

I'll play. Say when to sell.

Love it. I'm your Huckleberry.

Was today the day? Because I acted as if the signal was given despite no definitive signal being given

quote:

---

Was today the day? Because I acted as if the signal was given despite no definitive signal being given

---

I hope you play-acted. Maybe a pullback from the obvious resistance back to previous secondary highs. Not "the end" yet.

BTW - if you are option traders I love taking the cheap weekly Puts once we have hit the resistance on a Monday - just in case confirmation comes in. I like Monday down days to take the position obviously because it gives me the entire 4 remaining days for a bigger move.

For example you could grab April 8th 200.50 Strike Price SPY Puts for $.06 cents. Buy 10 which is leveraging 1000 Spy shares for a whopping $60. When the top does come the drop is precipitous and you can convert those into short shares.

I'll take 1000 Put Options multiple times. As long as I've marked resistance I have a 50% "hit rate" on at least a pull back. Currently I have 1000 Puts at that $.06 mark and if we get a decent pullback to send them to $.13 then I take 500 off the table and hold the rest while getting the larger market read.

Getting out not getting in

quote:

---

Getting out not getting in

---

Ah....agree that if you've ridden the bounce all the way to today then getting out was a good move. I've been out for a while cause grabbing a 1400 bounce move was my target. I never get caught up on being in until the bitter end of a move. In fact I love selling into buying much more than chasing the bid down.

Sold to close 500 of the 1000 Put Spy Options at $.18. from a $.06 entry. Woot!

Can you translate to English for a noob?

Also, I'm sitting on VTSMX that I dollar cost averaged into all last year. Is it going to drop? Should I sell? Should I keep sitting on it? Looks like it's going up still. Don't really need the money any time soon, mostly just playing with it.

quote:

---

Can you translate to English for a noob?

Also, I'm sitting on VTSMX that I dollar cost averaged into all last year. Is it going to drop? Should I sell? Should I keep sitting on it? Looks like it's going up still. Don't really need the money any time soon, mostly just playing with it.

---

Translation is the 1000 options cost $6k and were valued at $18k at the open so I sold 500 or $9k taken out with 500 remaining. Options move very quickly and move against you just as quickly if you are incorrect on the buy. Also the sideways market can erode the time value since these options expire this Friday.

As for VTSMX fund. It's made a great move up with the majority of its holdings rising with the market bounce. If it were me I would have been out a couple of dollars ago because I don't attempt to enter at absolute bottom or exit at absolute tops. I swing trade and believe we are closing in on the market top. That is in terms of value not timing. We could quite easily move sideways for some time before breaking down. However, the actual value of holdings going sideways for the risk of the eventual failure isn't where I like to be a holder.

SPY is S&P 500? You previously locked in a buy price, the value of the right to that buy price went up (demand for that price went up because market went up or buyers think it will?), and you sold the right to buy?

I sold the VTSMX. Had a small positive gain on it. So now I sit on the cash and wait to jump back in?

We will see how this trade ultimately plays out but I sold NFLX covered calls at $5/share with a 4/22 expiration and strike price of $103, leading up through earnings. I sold them back when the shares had dipped down to like $98. My cost basis on the shares is $102.38, so a $103 strike price doesn't net me much return but the $5 covered call premium makes the break even at $108. So about a 5% return over a month if I get called out, currently in the money. I will still be holding some shares if the stock continues to climb so my return can go up some.

quote:

---

SPY is S&P 500? You previously locked in a buy price, the value of the right to that buy price went up (demand for that price went up because market went up or buyers think it will?), and you sold the right to buy?

I sold the VTSMX. Had a small positive gain on it. So now I sit on the cash and wait to jump back in?

---

Sit on cash if you aren't a multi-functional trader who can trade the eventual down cycle.

Sold VIX $13.56 buys at $15.30. VIX at $14 or under continues to be the gift that keeps on giving.

great play man

I've been doing more quick stuff with /ES (S&P futures) and actually more bullish lately, just not fighting price at the moment, even today when we had some pullback (minor to the overall move and while taking or bouncing from overnight lows really couldn't buld any value there) I was able to make some quick hitter wins on bounces (not saying it's easy but when we have this predictable struggle to take out lows it's there for the take) playing with the value area thing for more definite trades is paying nicely in both directions while waiting for this overbought, manipulated piece of crap to finally rollover hard for us. Anyways it's a departure from my usual bread and butter (I usually hate buying options --my primary game is selling naked premium calls/puts in high implied volatility stocks, AMZN being my main vehicle other that /ES or SPX---b/c they not only have to go your way they need to do it decisively and fairly quick before time decay which works great for premium/options sellers kills you by deteriorating the price--- but it's paid nicely and helped BETA weight (balance positive and negative deltas) limiting impact of my long volatility losses while I keep setting up for a decent sized liquidation break in this market.

for the record oldarmy has been my mentor for about 4 years but there are many ways to successfully skin a cat in this game. He's heavy technical analysis I use more of a quant approach to playing the probabilities of options. That said, when the market is getting weird and I want to clean up on direction I'm calling oldarmy and get back to tech analysis that works for me as I mentioned above.

quote:

---

"Sold VIX $13.56 buys at $15.30. VIX at $14 or under continues to be the gift that keeps on giving."

great play man

I've been doing more quick stuff with /ES (S&P futures) and actually more bullish lately, just not fighting price at the moment, even today when we had some pullback (minor to the overall move and while taking or bouncing from overnight lows really couldn't buld any value there) I was able to make some quick hitter wins on bounces (not saying it's easy but when we have this predictable struggle to take out lows it's there for the take) playing with the value area thing for more definite trades is paying nicely in both directions while waiting for this overbought, manipulated piece of crap to finally rollover hard for us. Anyways it's a departure from my usual bread and butter (I usually hate buying options --my primary game is selling naked premium calls/puts in high implied volatility stocks, AMZN being my main vehicle other that /ES or SPX---b/c they not only have to go your way they need to do it decisively and fairly quick before time decay which works great for premium/options sellers kills you by deteriorating the price--- but it's paid nicely and helped BETA weight (balance positive and negative deltas) limiting impact of my long volatility losses while I keep setting up for a decent sized liquidation break in this market.

for the record oldarmy has been my mentor for about 4 years but there are many ways to successfully skin a cat in this game. He's heavy technical analysis I use more of a quant approach to playing the probabilities of options. That said, when the market is getting weird and I want to clean up on direction I'm calling oldarmy and get back to tech analysis that works for me as I mentioned above.

---

quote:

---

"Sold VIX $13.56 buys at $15.30. VIX at $14 or under continues to be the gift that keeps on giving."

great play man

I've been doing more quick stuff with /ES (S&P futures) and actually more bullish lately, just not fighting price at the moment, even today when we had some pullback (minor to the overall move and while taking or bouncing from overnight lows really couldn't buld any value there) I was able to make some quick hitter wins on bounces (not saying it's easy but when we have this predictable struggle to take out lows it's there for the take) playing with the value area thing for more definite trades is paying nicely in both directions while waiting for this overbought, manipulated piece of crap to finally rollover hard for us. Anyways it's a departure from my usual bread and butter (I usually hate buying options --my primary game is selling naked premium calls/puts in high implied volatility stocks, AMZN being my main vehicle other that /ES or SPX---b/c they not only have to go your way they need to do it decisively and fairly quick before time decay which works great for premium/options sellers kills you by deteriorating the price--- but it's paid nicely and helped BETA weight (balance positive and negative deltas) limiting impact of my long volatility losses while I keep setting up for a decent sized liquidation break in this market.

for the record oldarmy has been my mentor for about 4 years but there are many ways to successfully skin a cat in this game. He's heavy technical analysis I use more of a quant approach to playing the probabilities of options. That said, when the market is getting weird and I want to clean up on direction I'm calling oldarmy and get back to tech analysis that works for me as I mentioned above.

---