Business & Investing
Sponsored by

Stock Markets

25,808,548 Views | 235212 Replies | Last: 11 min ago by BrokeAssAggie
Post removed:
by user
2:24p, 3/2/16
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:21p, 3/2/16
AG
Beyond that outlier big move day signaled I'd go back to the previous expectation with narrower range days squeezing short sellers like a torture drip. This is exactly what it looks like. Down for much of the day which entices premature short sellers thinking at least a short term top and then "we got ya sucker" push into the close. Now those shorts that haven't covered today's entries are sitting there hoping for a down opening tomorrow which has me thinking a higher open which is added to by shorts covering and then maybe ending down or even.

It's a like a movie I've seen 20k times. The frames are in slow motion at this point. 17k magnet....don't forget big round numbers. Markets love them!
Reply Quote
1
bmks270
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:19p, 3/2/16
AG
A lot of my stocks were down today.
Reply Quote
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:31p, 3/3/16
AG
Another tighter range day that started flat dropped down intraday only to squeeze the shorts as we get closer to the 17k magnet. Like a book!

The VIX (Volatility Index) is resting at $16.70. Throw that into your analysis knowing that when it approached the $15 range (with intrday spike down near $14) that has been the low water mark on last 6 months action before volatility spikes. During the bull market run it based out above $12. What you watch for is once it comes under $16 as the market hits 17k. If we get the flash exuberant bigger move towards 17500 mark then expect VIX to be between $15-16 at its lows. If we see a slower continued squeeze then look for the VIX to be between $13-15 when this move comes to an end.
Reply Quote
2
2 edits
bmks270
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to oldarmy1 • 4:34p, 3/3/16
AG
quote:
Another tighter range day that started flat dropped down intraday only to squeeze the shorts as we get closer to the 17k magnet. Like a book!

The VIX (Volatility Index) is resting at $16.70. Throw that into your analysis knowing that when it approached the $15 range (with intrday spike down near $14) that has been the low water mark on last 6 months action before volatility spikes. During the bull market run it based out above $12. What you watch for is once it comes under $16 as the market hits 17k. If we get the flash exuberant bigger move towards 17500 mark then expect VIX to be between $15-16 at its lows. If we see a slower continued squeeze then look for the VIX to be between $13-15 when this move comes to an end.


So, in your opinion, is the VIX too low or high? Are options over or under valued?
Reply Quote
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:47p, 3/3/16
AG
If we're talking the square root of time out 30 days then I think the prices are under valued.
Reply Quote
2
1 edit
Post removed:
by user
5:06p, 3/3/16
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to [removed post] • 8:02p, 3/3/16
AG
quote:
I would love the opportunity to fade a large gap up open tomorrow after the jobs report. 200-day moving average is around 2025 on the S&P. Don't think we poke right through it first time there.
Degraaf agrees with you Jake.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-02/wall-street-s-no-1-technical-analyst-says-fade-this-breakout
Reply Quote
Post removed:
by user
8:05p, 3/3/16
Joseph Parrish
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:49a, 3/4/16
AG
so we hit 17000
Reply Quote
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Joseph Parrish • 10:54a, 3/4/16
AG
quote:
so we hit 17000
Yessir. Lot of people taking notice which shows why psychological big round numbers mean things.
Reply Quote
3
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:05a, 3/4/16
AG
Not going to be around for real time execution post but nearly all my 50% remaining holds anticipating 17k+ are within trigger. I sold GS outright, have some trailing stops on others just in case and open sell orders waiting.

And in case anyone asks about my analysis on saying 17350-17500 looks likely, and why would I sell if I "believed" that, let me say that I never worry about catching pure tops or bottoms at exact apex. Buy GS 142.31 and sold at $157.25. Now all energy/analysis moves to positioning for reversal. Again, weeks and months trading NOT DAY TRADING is what I do.

Happy trading!
Reply Quote
3
Joseph Parrish
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:10a, 3/4/16
AG
I bought a lot of oil stocks at $27/bbl. I'm not sure if I'm ready to pull out of mine just yet. I may put some stops in place.
Reply Quote
1 edit
Dan Scott
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:25a, 3/4/16
AG
Oldarmy has effing killed it in this thread.

Past month I've been reading more on the election than the market in my free time but this thread has kept me updated
Reply Quote
6
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:52p, 3/4/16
AG
Much appreciated Dan. The PM's of people who made some $$$ on the confidence to 17k makes my day. We've had 4 days of the tighter ranges so a 5th day retreat, while possible (if not probable) should not be traded on as any sort of top. Wouldn't be surprised if we consolidated to 16750 area but we aren't done on the bounce based on every indicator and analysis I use. Therefore if any shorter term trading is being looked at I'd look at options over stocks simply on the more limited upside. We hit under 16800 and I'd eye a few options for an "inside the park" swing trade, so to speak. Not a macro move just buying with a 200 point cushion based on seeing 17k broken and a little further run up. That's plenty of ROI potential on option entry below 16800. And I'd go with the weekly because it would head back north quickly giving premium decay a run for its money.

BTW- The rest of the "sell to close" orders triggered (zero trailing stops) so I am officially cash neutral/flat on the market currently.

Have a great weekend!
Reply Quote
3
bmks270
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:51p, 3/4/16
AG
schmidthead


What benchmark would you use for options traders? And why?

There are lots of options approaches. Is the S&P 500 not a good benchmark for comparing covered calls vs just passive holding?
Reply Quote
1 edit
bmks270
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:12p, 3/4/16
AG
I've been trading weekly SBUX options past 6 weeks. Slow and steady and imo stable stock. After today's close +2% after commissions net on the SBUX trades. Really nothing to write home, just trying to collect premiums and make slight hedges in all of the volatility.

All I know is when I trade the stocks I lose, but usually make a profit on the options mostly short, sometimes long if I am expecting a move or volatility mis pricing, or to hedge a short position.

I appreciate reading everyone else's opinion and approach.
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
smucket
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:32p, 3/5/16
AG
This has been an enlightening and at times confusing (to me) thread. Oldarmy1 and others obviously know their stuff, but I don't always understand what they are saying. Oddly enough I am a finance guy, but my world is asset-backed securities not equities.

Oldarmy, can you dumb it down for me a little-I have tried to trade the VIX through UVXY and have mostly realized gains, but it has all been dumb luck not savvy. I know the easy answer is to tell me to stay away from trades like that, but I have an easier time seeing macro vs micro trends (at least I tell myself I do) so I'm wondering where you see this equity market going in the next few months. Choppy? Trending down? Trending up? I know in ABS the mood is dour, and in my business (railcars) all signals are pointing negative. Your thoughts are not only appreciated but acted on as well. Thanks for your input.
Reply Quote
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:50p, 3/6/16
AG
Smucket - Any of us who trade are "dummies" in some area and have to learn different aspects and components of the markets, especially if you trade some of the ETF's and market based indexes such as the VIX. Daytraders trade the VIX frequently but I only trade it when it reaches extremes. With that intro I give us the VIX for dummies. It's actually pretty good basis for understanding.

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/how-to-use-the-vix-vxn-and-vxd-to-gauge-market-vol.html

As for where I see the markets going I hope I've spelled it out fairly concisely. After confirming the reversal off previous lows below 16k I pounded the table that the bounce would at least reach 17k. While I can't predict the specific high that ends and begins a new leg lower my analysis stands as explained that seeing the topping action play out with a move as high as 17500 area wouldn't/shouldn't be a surprise. I've also made it clear that I do not try to catch the exact apex or base but pride myself in spotting shortly after they have occurred. I post such once I believe it has happened, and my methodology has been correct over 95% of the time. I can make a huge return with that, which is why I reserve trading big for such events.

A lot of technicals (not commenting on fundamentals on short term moves) are lining up for a near term (Monday or Tuesday) retracement. 16750 DOW area. Then comes the real topping action that will end in the choppiness you mentioned. Therefore the next time we break 17k upward I'll begin placing short trades and Option Puts.
Reply Quote
4
claym711
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:53p, 3/6/16
AG
Really good stuff over the past few pages, oldarmy. Impressive!
Reply Quote
1
claym711
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:55p, 3/6/16
AG
Do you have any specific short targets you can share?
Reply Quote
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to claym711 • 2:29p, 3/6/16
AG
quote:
Do you have any specific short targets you can share?
Targets by stock name/symbol. Will let the analysis provide actual position target entry.

VRX, AMGN, AMZN, GS, HD, MMM, LVS

I'm also watching MMM (3M) to top out. I'll likely open a Put first thing in the morning on that one.
Reply Quote
1
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:51p, 3/6/16
AG
For those unfamiliar with Level 2 trading very simply it is a view of all orders open for execution at preset prices. You have at the market bid/ask where the stock is actually trading and then each market maker has multiple orders, from multiple sources, waiting to be triggered. Now the orders waiting away from the market can be changed or deleted multiple different ways so if you see 10M shares sitting at $10 when the stock is at $10.25 then you might think that there is a floor being created by bidders. Completely false UNLESS it actually ticks off on the right side of the pictured screen. Those columns show time/sale stamp for executed orders and at what price they are executed. My software tracks the total volume and average order size so I can spot the big fish are playing. It's possible the big fish attempt to "mask" their activity by throwing out multiple bids (or asks if dumping/selling) to try to hide but the total volume exposes them in the end. When we are at macro reversal levels, up or down, the big fish institutional guys could care less if you see the big lot volume trades. As mentioned that is a super key final component I use when the markets/stocks are approaching my analysis driven entry/exit levels.





Then you have the heat maps which is like a word cloud showing activity across the markets



Then you have over kill HELLO!

Reply Quote
3
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:00p, 3/6/16
AG
I try to avoid specific market talk because I don'the want to creep into my approach, that works for me. That said a friend sent this over and it has some similar technicals within the myriad of information I use. Anyways, I think people getting going, or wanting to, can gain specific insight on what pro traders view.

http://www.shadowtrader.net/shadowtrader-video-03-06-16-market-topped/
Reply Quote
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to oldarmy1 • 2:52p, 3/8/16
AG
quote:
A lot of technicals (not commenting on fundamentals on short term moves) are lining up for a near term (Monday or Tuesday) retracement. 16750 DOW area. Then comes the real topping action that will end in the choppiness you mentioned. Therefore the next time we break 17k upward I'll begin placing short trades and Option Puts.
Ok, so it began Tuesday.
Reply Quote
1
pfo
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:57p, 3/8/16
AG
Wow oldarmy, that guy you are quoting is a genius!
Reply Quote
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to pfo • 3:00p, 3/8/16
AG
quote:
Wow oldarmy, that guy you are quoting is a genius!
I hate that he is right all the time! No one can predict the markets....NO ONE!!!! (for emphasis)
Reply Quote
2
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:05p, 3/8/16
AG
BTW, I'm just playing around. I gave my best guess because my claim is only to be able to predict macro movement, not daily. That said, I felt fairly certain of the current daily market action.
Reply Quote
2
pfo
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:11p, 3/8/16
AG
very very impressive!
Reply Quote
Joseph Parrish
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:12p, 3/8/16
AG
So you still predict it to go north after this?
Reply Quote
oldarmy1
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Joseph Parrish • 3:39p, 3/8/16
AG
quote:
So you still predict it to go north after this?
YESSIR
Reply Quote
Bonfire1996
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:00p, 3/8/16
AG
Physical Gold and Silver discussion:

In the back half of 2015, before the recent run up in prices, both physical Gold and physical silver dropped 13%. An identical drop. When the DOW and S&P began its freefall at the end of 4Q 2015, and before the recent rally in markets, both Gold and Silver made gains in short periods of time. But instead of similar gains, the panic buying of Gold wildly outpaced that of silver. Gold is up 15% since the lows while silver is up only 9.5%. Most importantly is that the Silver lowpoint in the back half of 2015 is a decade long low at $14/ounce. So silver, and Gold for that matter, but much moreso silver, is close to decade long lows.

All at a point where recessionary bets are going to prove fruitful over the medium term.

I have been watching this thread, and conversing with oldarmy via PM to determine an entry point for physical gold and silver acquisition, and wanted to wait for a more attractive entry point than a month ago. I am thinking this impending (hopefully) runup to 17,500 gives me the entry point I'm looking for. And I am very interested in acquiring more silver than gold due to the difference in recent gains between the two.
Reply Quote
dreyOO
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Bonfire1996 • 4:06p, 3/8/16
What mechanism are you using to purchase them?
Reply Quote
Bonfire1996
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:09p, 3/8/16
AG
A place where we can buy it with under a 2% transaction fee.
Reply Quote
1
Furlock Bones
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Bonfire1996 • 4:10p, 3/8/16
AG
quote:
Physical Gold and Silver discussion:

In the back half of 2015, before the recent run up in prices, both physical Gold and physical silver dropped 13%. An identical drop. When the DOW and S&P began its freefall at the end of 4Q 2015, and before the recent rally in markets, both Gold and Silver made gains in short periods of time. But instead of similar gains, the panic buying of Gold wildly outpaced that of silver. Gold is up 15% since the lows while silver is up only 9.5%. Most importantly is that the Silver lowpoint in the back half of 2015 is a decade long low at $14/ounce. So silver, and Gold for that matter, but much moreso silver, is close to decade long lows.

All at a point where recessionary bets are going to prove fruitful over the medium term.

I have been watching this thread, and conversing with oldarmy via PM to determine an entry point for physical gold and silver acquisition, and wanted to wait for a more attractive entry point than a month ago. I am thinking this impending (hopefully) runup to 17,500 gives me the entry point I'm looking for. And I am very interested in acquiring more silver than gold due to the difference in recent gains between the two.
just food for thought, rightly or wrongly silver has never been seen as the same store of value against currency as gold has. thus, it generally doesn't make the gains that gold does when things get crazy and people/countries panic about currency.

it does have industrial uses to a much greater extent than gold, but industrial demand is likely going to fall with the recessionary world economy.
Reply Quote
1
First Page Last Page
Page 12 of 6721 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.